Omicron Update: Much Worse Than We Thought…

The Omicron variant is insanely contagious, like we did not expect it to be this bad - the UK just reported 200,000 new cases in one day We’re only a few weeks into this wave and the number of daily cases is already a magnitude higher than at the peak of the pandemic. The first death from Omicron in London occurred on December 13th, and 48 hours later it became the dominant variant In New York and New Jersey, just 10 days after the new variant was discovered in the United States, Omicron now accounts for 13% of all new cases, which are skyrocketing during peak holiday travel season.

And here’s the fact: most people are not going to cancel their travel plans, it’s too late, and this variant is already spreading like wildfire - actually, wildfire doesn’t spread this fast! And we now have pretty clear confirmation that vaccines and boosters are less effective against preventing Omicron, and that’s our main defense. 

The problem is that this new variant has about 50 new mutations that we’ve never seen together before, with 30 mutations alone on the spike protein that the coronavirus uses to attach to human cells, which is what makes it so contagious and vaccine resistant. Since the current vaccines specifically target the spike protein that we know from the original SARS-CoV-2, Omicron presents a unique problem for researchers because it’s spreading so much faster than they can possibly release a vaccine to fight it.

But what about the fact that Omicron is reportedly less deadly than its previous iterations, that’s good news, right? We’ve been cautiously optimistic about those early reports, and there’s certainly a possibility that Omicron could transition us out of the pandemic and into an endemic, or basically a seasonal virus like the flu. But even if that does happen, which we still don’t have a clear answer to, what we DO know is that this wildly unprecedented infection rate is extremely bad news RIGHT NOW - even if it IS less deadly.

Omicron is turning out to be much more of a disaster than we anticipated simply because we don’t have the resources to handle this many cases, even after two years. This new variant’s doubling time is reported as 2-3 days, meaning that we can realistically expect millions of new cases in just the next couple weeks. No healthcare system is equipped to handle that, and as we’ve continually seen - the secondary victims of COVID are those who need non-COVID services in the middle of skyrocketing waves. People involved in accidents, people with cancer, or other life-threatening illnesses, people who need regular check-ups that could catch deadly or debilitating conditions early enough to treat them.

COVID-19 spikes effectively shut down our healthcare systems and we’ve clearly seen the secondary bodycount from doing so. But frankly, the primary bodycount of Omicron isn’t off the table just because early reports suggest symptoms are mild. First of all, most of the people who have been infected with Omicron are either younger, healthier, or effectively immunized - meaning that OF COURSE the early reports will show milder symptoms. But for people who are immunocompromised, undergoing immunity-suppressing treatments, the elderly, or even just the people who DO fall into the percentage of patients with severe reactions - those numbers are also going to rise.

Even if the ratio of cases to deaths is positive, the actual, real number of deaths is still going to be higher. However, there is a small glimmer of hope in the new data we’re seeing on how to best protect yourself from this new virus. An in-depth laboratory study completed in early December shows that while the Omicron variant is easily able to avoid the protection provided by existing antibodies, and re-infect people who have already had COVID-19, the new variant IS susceptible to very high quantities of antibodies - and those are provided by the booster shot - literally, that’s what it’s doing, boosting your number of antibodies.

Early studies show that people who have recently gotten the booster are able to create not only more antibodies, but more diverse antibodies, and those not only protect you from catching the virus, but prevent you from getting severe symptoms. As noted by virologists, “Omicron may be vaccine-resistant, but it is not booster-proof.” And yet, as good as that news is, it’s important to remember that 3 out of 10 Americans don’t even have their first round of vaccines, and 8 out of 10 don’t have their booster.

While the data shows a cautiously optimistic outlook on our ability to handle this unprecedented wave of infections, but the reality of people making the worst choices in the middle of a deadly pandemic, spurred on by ineffective public policy has honestly been our biggest barrier to fighting COVID-19, and although we now have better tools, more information, and a miracle of modern science in the vaccine, there are still people refusing to take it, hopping on planes, arguing about wearing a mask, and prolonging this traumatic era of disease.

So, for the holidays, give us all a gift and take this seriously - wear a mask, get vaccinated, get boosted, and stop being friends with anyone who did an obnoxious Santa-themed bar crawl in the middle of a pandemic.