$SPY TOP 20

Commentary here is almost identical to that just shared under the $QQQ chart

In short, we expect a retest of the 50 WMA from above next after a very strong run from the market since the 7th of April

A retest will also provide us with more information on where we think the market is going next

A hold of the 50 WMA at $567 then we can expect a higher high next and the $SPY Contrarian View becomes the dominant scenario to play out

But

A rejection trying to stay above the 50 WMA and we will confirm that Wave C is active and there will be a lower low next this year for the market.

We have been planning this for a number of months now....well before Tariffs were even discussed....so we are ready for what the market throws at us.

ECONOMIC DATA OUT THIS WEEK:

📊 Key Economic Data Releases

Monday, May 19

• Leading Economic Index (April): This indicator will provide insights into the overall economic outlook.

Tuesday, May 20

• Philadelphia Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity (May): Offers a glimpse into regional service sector performance.

Thursday, May 22 (Data-heavy day)

• Initial Jobless Claims: Consensus estimate is 226,000; previous was 229,000.

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (April): Measures overall economic activity and related inflationary pressure.

• S&P Global Flash PMIs (May):

  • Manufacturing: Expected at 49.8 (previous 50.2).

  • Services: Expected at 50.6 (previous 50.8).

• Existing Home Sales (April): Month-over-month change expected at +3.2% (previous -5.9%).

Friday, May 23

• New Home Sales (April): Seasonally adjusted annual rate projected at 705,000 (previous 724,000); month-over-month change expected at +2.6% (previous -4.0%).

🏦 Federal Reserve Speakers

Several Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak throughout the week, potentially providing insights into future monetary policy:

Monday, May 19

• Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (8:30 AM ET)

• Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and New York Fed President John Williams (8:45 AM ET)

• Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (1:15 PM ET)

• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (1:30 PM ET)

Tuesday, May 20

• Bostic and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin (9:00 AM ET)

• Boston Fed President Susan Collins (9:30 AM ET)

• St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem (1:00 PM ET)

• Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (7:00 PM ET)

Wednesday, May 21

• Barkin and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (9:15 AM ET)

• Williams (2:00 PM ET)

🛍️ Corporate Earnings Highlights

Earnings reports from major retailers and tech companies will be closely watched for insights into consumer spending and business investment trends:

• Tuesday, May 20: Home Depot, Palo Alto Networks

• Wednesday, May 21: Lowe’s, Target, TJX Companies, Snowflake, Medtronic

• Thursday, May 22: Ross Stores, Ralph Lauren, Intuit

These reports are particularly significant amid ongoing discussions about tariffs and their impact on pricing strategies and consumer behavior.

🔍 Market Context

The U.S. stock market has rebounded over 18% from April lows, buoyed by a temporary trade truce with China. However, concerns persist regarding the impact of tariffs on inflation and consumer spending. Retail earnings this week will be pivotal in assessing these dynamics.