Orange Optimism Storms The Market
Added 2024-11-07 05:36:34 +0000 UTCOptionStrat link: https://optionstrat.com/themaverickofwallstreet
Market Recap:
00:00 Intro
0:52 Elections Review
9:00 Extreme Orange Optimism
20:30 Morning Brief: I fucked Up I'm Sorry!
24:00 FOMC vs. Trump Optimism
24:50 NVDA & META Seek Protection From Fraud
26:48 Market Performance: Russell Explosion Because?
28:50 Heat Map: Grab Your Crayons
32:00 Commodities: Lumber Surge
33:55 Options: Buy Dip In GLD, Fade IEM?
41:55 Charts: Extremes
58:30 Outlook
Outro Music: Say Yes To Heaven- Lana Del Rey
Comments
For me it was economics and more…. And I don’t think I’m an anomaly. https://youtu.be/2bS0dYWWh0Q?si=zXBajPBl8ITIwqPp
BoDean Dobbs
2024-11-07 23:35:10 +0000 UTCDied laughing at the opening of this.
Derek Robinson
2024-11-07 16:19:55 +0000 UTCHobbes' "Leviathan" becoming reality. Embrace your chains.
DrRussphd
2024-11-07 15:56:22 +0000 UTCIf you never made mistakes you wouldn't be human Mav. Don't sweat it. Also congrats on making 1984 fiction again
Geth Volus
2024-11-07 15:34:06 +0000 UTCReally GOOD analysts last night but there is a couple of Recession indicators that also needs to be discussed....in the Debt Markets, Swap Spreads are hovering around Historic Negative levels...not just here in the US but in Europe as well. Global Diesel Demand is falling, yes some of this is due to the conversion of trucks and busses to running on NG but it's another indicator of slowing commercial/industrial activity. 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y3M/ Secured Overnight Financing Rate https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SOFR Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve in the Temporary Open Market Operations https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RRPONTSYD/ Latest SOFR rate SOFR is published by the New York Federal Reserve every business day for the previous business day, the latest is: https://www.sofrrate.com/ US Treasury Settlement Failures Surged To A Whopping $216 Billion US Treasury settlement failures surged to a whopping $216 billion last week bringing the aggregated amount this year to $5.6 trillion over the past 211 trading days. https://franknez.com/us-treasury-settlement-failures-surged-to-a-whopping-216-billion/ I will also add the NEED to include the MACRO conditions in China. Nothing GOOD is happening in Real Estate, Banking especially the Shadow Banking Lenders, Consumption by Chinese Consumers and Tax Revenues in most of the Provinces where nearly Half can't make Payrolls for workers. Xi is heading for the Real Possibility of having to Devalue the Yuan and proving me right that China's GREATEST Export in 2025 will be DEFLATION. The China Crisis is also a GERMAN Crisis. Germany is looking at 2025 as a Recession YEAR of Pain and Germany is the LARGEST Economy in Europe. The Chancellor fired the Finance Minister yesterday crushing the coalition government forcing early election at the beginning of 2025. Germany's Depression in Auto Manufacturing will bring Stagflation to the UK economy who provided much of the electronic parts that goes into German Cars. Both German and the UK have some of the Dumbest National Energy Policies in All of Europe. The costs of Electricity this Winter is going to be one of the main drivers of the Return of Inflation in Europe. Thanks to Globalization, The ""Cost of Money"" is finally going to Force the Populist to Realize....DEBT Matter! Watch how Global Interest Rates ALL Climb together at the Long End of the Yield Curve. Global DEBT is about to accelerate again and the IMF has already WARNED that Current Global Debt levels are Unsustainable......GOT GOLD?
Pete
2024-11-07 15:31:47 +0000 UTCoh, i forgot...men flocked to facebook too....and just one of the reasons I left Facebook. When AI started pushing stuff...I was surviving cancer...I can attest...what AI pushes in not healthy....my mind can survive alot...but the onslaught of that AI shit on Facebook turned me off as it felt predatory...mind screwing vibe....and now I no longer tune in or want to own the stock...so I have to avoid ETFs. Why do adults look the other way to this technology? He was almost in the crapper a few years ago...but saved by the market. I am willing to do the work...and glad Mav is willing to look at individual stocks...oh...and don't even get me started about the cage fight distraction played on the stock market....my trading journal is plagued with "interesting" occurances that appeared to steer the stock market from falling off a cliff. I follow Peter before I found you...and y'all have tuned into something...others have not. I don't know what I am doing...living and learning at 60 years of age...but in a very short time, I have noticed several waves of propoganda...which I humbly believe are just waves of legal plunder...I may be wrong...but I too have noticed the incestuous activities...we all should be concerned...perhaps start another channel where we can discuss what we experience...ps I worked with CSX/Sealand...so I remember when the trucking industry was ruined....I saw the numbers on that...let people gamble on these porn providing products...let them trade them too...I'll be looking for corporations that build a HEALTHY future to invest in...if they exist...I may need to buckle up for a sad dose of reality...guys, us gals trusted y'all. I hope this economy is worthy of our children. Zuchinni...that is an insult to a zucchini...Mav you are a hoot. Glad you are here...
imagardener
2024-11-07 14:25:41 +0000 UTCI guess now that we have hard to value technology like AI...we bought it...or at least our retirement plans bought it...so BUILD IT and they will come they say...if we applied the due diligence Benjamin Graham suggests...like not to invest with mafia types...so i try not to (fundamental research)...yet those seem to be where the money is steered...where the future is steered...meanwhile I can't find real watermelons...except from an elderly farmer now dying of cancer...one note on Bitcoin...as a new stock trader 2021, Bitcoin entered the market scene as stocks began to quiver...and Musk agreed to accept bitcoin...the price soared ($1500 during my chemo 2017...now look at theprice)...and all my bitcoin gaziollionaires spend their time dining and traveling...there exists another economy...the bitcoin economy...I don't swim in it...but my bitcoin friends do...they are always traveling to other countries...all over...in groups...having a GREAT time...so I hear. Now, I hear that musk is lov'in up on Dodgecoin...so when I expect the economy to go down...there seems to be other market influences (and manipulations...that is why I call us a Banana Republic that miracuously saves the market day....thank you for preparing us for what MIGHT HAPPEN....I promised farmers during chemo, if I could figure out what happened to the economics of REAL FOOD (and why I can't directly buy from farmers like I used to...among a long list of barriers to deal directly with the producer...can we dive into REAL FOOD...I bet the answer to our stock market...is in the same answer to what has happened to real food....I swore I would NEVER get any more pets...as the pet food industry is F'd...once again...farmers helped me...that time www.bostgristmill.com ....I stood with the patriarch of the Bost family in front of his freezer of REAL FOOD and he explained all the hoops he must just through...and he gives me the side eye..and stresses "I PAY A WHOLE LOTTA MONEY FOR THAT NON GMO GRAIN"....I was so desperate to ensure I was giving my cat REAL FOOD I was going to grind her own catfood. Mav, it's really that bad out here...our food is adulterated...when you shop directly from farmers you begin to realize how nasty the food is. AND...because of my videos...I can attest the prices of cantoloupes only went up 25 cents during covid/after...once upon a time you could shop from a "Honor System" farm stands across North Carolina...now food stands need insurance, licenses, BATHROOMS... if you buy the trash out of these grocery stores, you wouldn't even LIKE cantouloupe...unripe ...from timbucktoo...the seeds STERILE. Research Dr. Shanna Swan - the Danny Jones podcast was good. Let's do that REAL FOOD segment...let's dig into America's food system...I'll interview the farmers in NC...I am sending them to your channel...I did not vote Trump (like you I don't think it matters)..I almost voted for Jasmine Sherman...I witnessed that woman feed and care for the homeless the rich church women ran out of myers park...during the COLDEST WEEK...and Jasmine and her momma cooking biscuits, gathering blankets, tents, working the city to help people...yet never rewarded with a government job. I know my advice about growing food was shunned...I guess NC would rather have goods shipped in from timbucktoo by whoknowswho (actually, I see SYY trucks in town...and just realized the baby corn I use is from CAG...).and I want to dine at restaurants hosting "local farmed food" nights.....so I find myself surrounded by Trump voting farmers...and the one thing we all agree on is we should have access to REAL FOOD...Mav, as a Carolina gal...I have been horrified how I have to courtsey to the government to deal directly with a farmer...now, after swearing off more cats...since I can't find real food for them...THREE show up...let's dig into REAL FOOD...that dang Star Wars men drug me to a few years back started with a powdered breakfast...Mav, if we don't follow the MONEY around food we'll all be eating powdered breakfasts...then powdered lunches...then powdered dinners...I suspect some people alread do. ..can we follow that some...keep at least ONE EYE on REAL FOOD...we are losing farmland like crazy...it seems along with men's decrease in sperm count.....Mav, I live in NC...I fear my gardening videos may become a documentation of the destruction of NC's food mecca...farmers grow more food than people can eat (but i rejected farmer food and shopped fancy grocers..a lifestyle push)..and if we all ate one sweet potatoe a day none of us would need ozempic...I guess our government would rather write a $1000 check to LLY every month...than a $10 check to a farmer....seriously Mav...sweet potatoes could save the world..but sweet potatoes don't have Cramer rallying for them...and they ain't sexy...like a big corporation...back to trading...it may have been that OMINOUS VIX signal video from 3 years ago...when I found you...you have a WIN WIN LOSE WIN trade strategy..it WORKS as you get immediate market feedback...you trade leaning ONE WAY but can save yourself if wrong....I'm so traumatized by trading this year...everything was going great...until the wheels started falling off..and my food forest kitty started dying...and I found I did not have a good overall system to manage trades...that's my job and the market conditions of late taught me I can improve...I have excuses...and NOW with these 3 creatures arriving on the property...I likely always will...Your analysis is valuable...we all know those who go along with the status quo..I can't help to feel like investors can INFLUENCE markets...but perhaps I should just grab a copy of The Last Man...and become an obedient follower of propoganda...men have witness the influence of game rigging for generations...perhaps we have been domisticated enough we will repress our natural instincts to provide for our offspring... I remember in Dec 2021 and facebook was the ONLY HOPE for the stock market...and I thought "so we have come to this...a nation dependent on a ____ like Zuckerburg"...but hedge fund managers held their nose and bought it anyway...and mothers flocks to facebook to gather gossip of the day...and shop. Meanwhile we are losing touch with how to value an apple...worth one price in one real estate district...almost nothing in another...perhaps grocery stores are like McDonalds...and just real estate companies...in a world where we have so much FAKE STUFF...it becomes hard to value REAL STUFF...if real stuff even exists...it can easily get lost in the economic shuffle...I digress...I have to trade through and find safe food for 3 creatures now...well, maybe one...the Runt is a stoner...her found the cat nip and zoned out in it...and the other two..clawing at the windows to hunt... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHdCJuCWjVM
imagardener
2024-11-07 13:57:46 +0000 UTCThe market thinks JP will cut rates now… That’s it.
Tony Crabtree
2024-11-07 13:44:23 +0000 UTCMav!!!
Stavros Deriziotis
2024-11-07 13:42:21 +0000 UTCIWM/KRE seems the most obvious short in history vs the bond market signals. Thanks Mav... I'll have my popcorn ready for this afternoon's FOMC! Appreciate all the research you do on behalf of our community.
Professor Profound Possum
2024-11-07 12:45:57 +0000 UTCThe election was never close. I don't why you thought it ever was.
Andrew Knox
2024-11-07 11:44:13 +0000 UTC
