High Tide, Chapter 70: At Rise
Added 2024-05-26 15:57:08 +0000 UTCFirst Moon, 132 AC
Comments
The Conches are overconfident. They were called out for it as well. They kept things need to know among their assets but the members of the actual organization are very well coordinated with each other to maximize success. We know this, we saw it in Ch57 the last time the Conches were shown in action. They are the best in the world but even the best can fail at times. Who says they didn't search when their comrade failed to check in? And are you so sure the Velaryons do not know about the coming attack? I see it less as deus ex machina and more like 'the shot heard round the world'. This story's Dance buildup has analogued the buildup to WWI a lot and so the discovery of this assassination plot is the counterpart to the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in serving as the spark that lights the powder keg. There would have been little point IMO in dragging it out with more assassin games and convincing. It's part of the point anyway. The lack of trust caused the war. The Velaryons could not trust the Targaryens would not go to war and so they prepared an assassination scheme as a backup plan while the Targaryens were divided but then discovered said assassination scheme, rallying them into a united force. It is the crystallisation of the Thucydides Trap and it may very well decide the war. Glad you liked the rest of the chapter. Stay tuned.
Tertius711
2024-06-18 06:55:50 +0000 UTC@Tertius711 Guess it’s instant Karma for the boasting Mysaria did about the superior conch spy network. For all that work and nobody knew how to keep things as Need to Know , small cell orations , compartmentalize roles . One spy gets caught answering spills the entire plot . One spy should not know any more than maybe 2 other contacts . That’s a complete failure to operate a system. Second point , when said spy doesn’t check in, no conch thinks to search via glass candle ? Who is supposed to take care of Lynol strong before he became a problem ? I really through he was going to be shanked/stabbed in the dark before he had time to start the final torture, or during it . Cause Conchs should be checking in when spies fail to report or follow routine. What about the large meeting the Targs , With this massive failure, I doubt they are even listening to this event via glass candle to know about this coming attack. —- Second point , this “spy” plot turned into a “deus de machina” for Rhynera. She was struggling to make her reason for war , suddenly a perfect excuse drops down from the author God to her lap in the same scene. —— From the author perspective, I can understand why you would want to wipe off this plot from existence. But it would have been a more interesting read to see more conflict in Rhynera actually work to convince people . Also see more moral struggles in the Velaryon camp over the use of assassins. Even if we don’t target “kin” Targs, at least use them to kill off any competent generals and leaders . Starting with the spy master . —- The rest of the chapter was great read .
Great Ender
2024-06-18 05:29:30 +0000 UTCThanks! Stay tuned! I have an announcement for Ch71’s release date coming out today.
Tertius711
2024-06-04 02:17:38 +0000 UTCWas just rereading this while waiting for chapter 71. Excited for the battles!
ksri
2024-06-03 21:40:29 +0000 UTCThe Conch did well hiding them hehe. Let's see how it goes!
Tertius711
2024-05-27 06:35:25 +0000 UTCThe glass candles will now deliver on their hype by giving Velaryon advance notice of Tyg's plan
Tushar Srivastav
2024-05-27 05:10:22 +0000 UTCYeah he's probably beating himself up for opening his mouth and trying to be too smart about Rhaenys and Viserys to avert the Dance. If those two didn't marry, war is inevitable no matter if Aemon lived or not IMO.
Tertius711
2024-05-27 04:36:00 +0000 UTCWhy would he be Second of his Name? Why acknowledge the rando in the Century of Blood who only died? But as for the Velaryon Empire and how much it encompasses, well we shall see :)
Tertius711
2024-05-27 04:34:55 +0000 UTCSorry! This chapter was well over 11k already though and like you so wisely noted, tis was intentional :). Stay tuned!
Tertius711
2024-05-27 04:31:36 +0000 UTCGlad you noticed that! Thanks for the inspiration!
Tertius711
2024-05-27 04:31:10 +0000 UTCI can only imagine how Corlys is feeling right now. Spending a lifetime in trying to avoid the Dance. Then in the end, only delaying it by a measly three years. At the cost of making the Dance a 1000 times more dangerous and destructive, and directed completely at his family. Though it makes me wonder if Corlys had just kept his mouth shut about letting Rhaenys marry Viserys. Would the Targaryens fall under Civil War like in canon?
Omar
2024-05-26 21:11:43 +0000 UTCIt'd be very fun/ironic if at the end of all this we have Emperor Aurion Velaryon, Second of His Name, First Emperor of Velaryon Empire and the empire ends up encompassing all of the former Valyrian territory
Neyra
2024-05-26 20:51:16 +0000 UTCTbf this isn’t strictly Mysaria’s fault but yes she is a symptom of the problem, overconfident Conches since they’ve had so much unbroken success. They are following in Corlys’ footsteps lol. Cyanide tooth technology isn’t exactly the kind of thing you can make in medical times tbh. Depends on how hard the purge is. Probably escape while doing damage if possible. Velaryons will go back to the original dragon plan. The Conches are not infallible and I wanted to try and make that as smooth and immersive as possible with the whole Larys Strong POV. That being said, the Conches' reputation holds, they are so competent they suffer from success in never getting caught until this chapter lol. That being said while the Conch under torture broke as all under torture break eventually, he broke in a very clever way which spies IRL are trained to do, giving up the information that Larys wants to hear but isn't actually essential. Because bear in mind, the assassination plan was always a side option they put on the table. The real and main plan was always use glass candles, split up the Targs, hunt and destroy, and they've played right into that perfectly and the Conch did his duty and hid the secret of the glass candles. This is also the weak point of torture, you must know exactly what to ask or it won't work.
Tertius711
2024-05-26 19:41:17 +0000 UTCI have a feeling that when Corlys finds out about leak, Mysaria will be in VERY SERIOUS troubles..... The question is, why during so many years of spy wars SI didn't invent sth like fake tooth with poison in order to prevent situations like this? Now that the whole Conches net is in serious risk, what now? Do contingency plans in situation like this means escape, or kamikaze-like actios to maximize damages?
Maciek
2024-05-26 19:26:17 +0000 UTCThe Conches have good opsec with regards to their assets outside the organization but the actual Conches all work heavily in concert with each other for coordinated missions and they are confident enough to think they themselves would never be exposed so opsec isn't as high as should be. We see this in previous Conch chapters like Ch57. The Conches are not infallible and I wanted to try and make that as smooth and immersive as possible with the whole Larys Strong POV. That being said, the Conches' reputation holds, they are so competent they suffer from success in never getting caught until this chapter lol. That being said while the Conch under torture broke as all under torture break eventually, he broke in a very clever way which spies IRL are trained to do, giving up the information that Larys wants to hear but isn't actually essential. Because bear in mind, the assassination plan was always a side option they put on the table. The real and main plan was always use glass candles, split up the Targs, hunt and destroy, and they've played right into that perfectly and the Conch did his duty and hid the secret of the glass candles. This is also the weak point of torture, you must know exactly what to ask or it won't work. Fair point on Corlys not ordering Larys' murder. It's actually implied he did since Larys reports assassination plans for the Small Council as well (which he is part of) but I've amended it slightly to add in Corlys putting a hit on Larys on the table. As for Corlys and Viserra, well I don't really want to spoil the next chapter but all the reasons they gave this chapter are very valid. They have the most chance of survival/most chance to take as many Targaryens with them as possible and someone MUST stay on Driftmark to delay the Targaryens for the plan to have the best chance of success. It's pride really that motivates Corlys and Viserra a lot, pride and love for their children and also for their home Driftmark which they won't let go without a fight.
Tertius711
2024-05-26 18:50:40 +0000 UTCThe Conches have good opsec with regards to their assets outside the organization but the actual Conches all work heavily in concert with each other for coordinated missions and they are confident enough to think they themselves would never be exposed so opsec isn't as high as should be. We see this in previous Conch chapters like Ch57. The Conches are not infallible and I wanted to try and make that as smooth and immersive as possible with the whole Larys Strong POV. That being said, the Conches' reputation holds, they are so competent they suffer from success in never getting caught until this chapter lol. That being said while the Conch under torture broke as all under torture break eventually, he broke in a very clever way which spies IRL are trained to do, giving up the information that Larys wants to hear but isn't actually essential. Because bear in mind, the assassination plan was always a side option they put on the table. The real and main plan was always use glass candles, split up the Targs, hunt and destroy, and they've played right into that perfectly and the Conch did his duty and hid the secret of the glass candles. This is also the weak point of torture, you must know exactly what to ask or it won't work.
Tertius711
2024-05-26 18:47:30 +0000 UTCThe Conches have good opsec with regards to their assets outside the organization but the actual Conches all work heavily in concert with each other for coordinated missions and they are confident enough to think they themselves would never be exposed so opsec isn't as high as should be. We see this in previous Conch chapters like Ch57. The Conches are not infallible and I wanted to try and make that as smooth and immersive as possible with the whole Larys Strong POV. That being said, the Conches' reputation holds, they are so competent they suffer from success in never getting caught until this chapter lol. That being said while the Conch under torture broke as all under torture break eventually, he broke in a very clever way which spies IRL are trained to do, giving up the information that Larys wants to hear but isn't actually essential. Because bear in mind, the assassination plan was always a side option they put on the table. The real and main plan was always use glass candles, split up the Targs, hunt and destroy, and they've played right into that perfectly and the Conch did his duty and hid the secret of the glass candles. This is also the weak point of torture, you must know exactly what to ask or it won't work.
Tertius711
2024-05-26 18:47:11 +0000 UTCNah they didn't plan to leak it.
Tertius711
2024-05-26 18:44:53 +0000 UTCGiven that the Velaryons were thinking of assassinating the Targaryens to save themselves the risk altogether, it probably wasn't deliberate. It made Daemon and Gael side with Rhaenys after all. The Conches are not infallible and I wanted to try and make that as smooth and immersive as possible with the whole Larys Strong POV. That being said, the Conches' reputation holds, they are so competent they suffer from success in never getting caught until this chapter lol. Also while the Conch under torture broke as all under torture break eventually, he broke in a very clever way, giving up the information that Larys wants to hear but isn't actually essential. Because bear in mind, the assassination plan was always a considered option they put on the table. The real and main plan was always use glass candles, split up the Targs, hunt and destroy, and they've played right into that perfectly and the Conch hid the secret of the glass candles.
Tertius711
2024-05-26 18:44:44 +0000 UTCAnd the war begins with the mistakes of the Velaryons. The spy was caught and he revealed everything. Corlis knew about the danger of underestimating Larisse and did not order his murder? An even bigger mistake because of which Damon is already ready to kill his own grandchildren. Why Corlis and Vizera are ready to die, thereby leaving their children without the largest dragon. The rest of the Targaryen dragons are almost twice the size of the Velaryon dragons. With such tactics, the Velaryons will truly lose. As I understand it, the older Velaryons will die in the next chapter, I hope at least they can kill two Targaryens. Otherwise, their sacrifice will be in vain. I liked the bloodthirstiness of Corliss Jr., I hope he will deal with many enemies. I don’t give up hope for his confrontation with Grandfather Targaryen. And someone has already killed Larisse Strong.
Tariel Khalvashi
2024-05-26 17:59:28 +0000 UTCU r cruel to end the chapter here. The cliffhanger !!! I know that was the point but .. Can not wait for the next Is there any way you could release the next chapter early 😅 Just kidding take your time
Tushar Srivastav
2024-05-26 17:42:10 +0000 UTCMy guess is it’s somewhere in the middle. Conches are definitely arrogant, the earlier rebuke about pride confirms this. But my guess is they HAD planned to leak some part at a later specific time
Jack K
2024-05-26 17:30:13 +0000 UTC“Driftmark is a ruse, we moved everything and everyone of value from it and the Hook years ago and their castles are rigged with wildfire to blow at the slightest disturbance” love to see that my comment from last time inspired Stonedance to be made as a wildfire trap. Now we wait to see who gets caught in it
Jack K
2024-05-26 17:13:20 +0000 UTCOne spy has that level of Knowledge!? It seems to me to be a case of Miss direction to separate the dragons.
Felipe Astur
2024-05-26 16:40:37 +0000 UTCWas the spy being caught a deliberately laid out plan? Or were the conches really were that arrogant.
Skruffy
2024-05-26 16:33:51 +0000 UTCThanks for the chapter. Was that particular spy a high ranking or something? I’d think the conches would have better opsec than that.
Lictor Magnus
2024-05-26 16:25:48 +0000 UTC
