BTC#5: HAVE WE ENTERED THE FOURTH TURNING?

The question of the day now is where did the current fourth turning begin?  With Obama or Trump administration?

I think we entered it with the Bush administration in 2000.  

What is the Fourth Turning? 

A turning is a era or epoch.  Each one is associated with an identifiable mood or zeitgeist that tend to catch masses of people by surprise.  

Turnings have "a circadian biology" like quality linked to them. 

The First Turning is associated with a popular high that pervades the populace.  In this turning individualism is viewed as a negative and institutions become stronger and more powerful.  I believe the First Turning occurred in 1944-60's. That was a time in US history characterized by  strong institutions, and society had a solid consensus of where it wanted to go. This is when man got to the moon beyond all expectations.  Using a seasonal analogy, the first turning is the spring time historically speaking.  The first Turning ended  with Kennedy's death.  This era was defined by how the industrial military complex got rid of of Henry Wallace and Kennedy quietly below anyone's radar when America was prospering economically because World War was good business and Bretton Woods established the US dollars as the boss of the SWIFT payment system globally.  

The Second Turning is an awakening.  I believe this began they day Kennedy was killled by his own government.  This is when civic order comes under attack from a new values regime.  This defined the cultural revolutions we saw in the late 1960s and 70s.  The 1960s and 1970s – was the summer season, when people wanted to shed conformity. The Boomer generation came of age. We became a more individualized society, and shed civic responsibilities.

The Third Turning is the unraveling. The Third turning is an autumnal season.  Autumn is when the light of summer weakens the signs of change are present in the environment and leaves of trees.  The leaves of the tree simulate current events in that season.  This occurred in the late 1980s to late 1990s.  This is when institutions begin to weaken quickly, like the leaves on trees, and few expected it and individual strength increases in thinking.  This fall season opposes what occurs in the First Turning always.  Institutions become despised and untrusted, and there is “no faith” in civic organizations.  This occurred on Wall Street and in the banking industry.  It is also when medicine adopted algorithm care and began to employ physicians and embrace technology to lower costs of the aging boomers who were getting sicker faster than any generation before in human history. 

The wise begin to think in this Autumn Turning.  This is when the executives at Blockbuster thought Netflix was stupid to challenge their business platforms. This is when Kodak executives said people would rather have physical pictures in their possession over digital copies of pictures.  They were sure of it.  I wonder how their shareholders feel about it now?

Not understanding and being totally out of touch is very dangerous for an investor or an executive.  I am telling you the same thing is true for a patient or for the people who live in the USA who have the Federal Reserve running their currency that controls the value of everything they hold near and dear to them.  Your life savings are tied to how currency is valued.

This is the turn is when the comfortably numb miss the tell tale signs that massive change is afoot below their ability to sense it.  This is a period of time when network effects on a platform work in stealth fashion behind the scenes to change the world as we know it rapidly in the future.  Jeff Bezos got this message early in the 2000s and built a perfect company to take full advantage of the coming Fourth Turning.  This is why in 2020, he is the richest man in the world.  He built the perfect company for those who are comfortably numb.    

The Fourth Turning is a birth of crisis that becomes well known even to those who are asleep at their own wheel.  I think this current Fourth Turning began in 2000 with the Bush election fiasco in Florida.  This is when secular upheaval was the norm, and when the "values regime" propels the replacement of old civic order with a new one.  The beginning of this Turning was defined the Bush presidency because of 9/11 and making the Patriot Act law in 45 short days.  The damage of the Patriot act was buried in the euphoria of a country coming together against a common enemy. The coming crisis is deeply linked to this Patriot act.  Therefore, it can be described as the first inning of the "GREAT RESET."  The 2008 financial crisis spanned both the Bush and Obama/Biden administration, and with it came a weakened monetary policy of slowly debasing our currency to avoid a Great Depression.  The cycle should have ended with that depression, but quantatative easing just allowed Washington DC politicians to push the 4th Turning further down the road making the the coda to be even more explosive than most can imagine.  The coming crisis will be worse than 1929 Depression.  The current Fourth Turning is marked by events that went on during the Obama/Biden/Trump administrations with the socialist movements of Black Lives matters and MoveOn.org.  You are in the midst of that tsunami now.  

Some think this is ^^^^^ false.  There is a kernal of truth in every idea.

The Strauss–Howe generational theory, is also known as the Fourth Turning theory. It describes a theorized recurring generation cycle in American history and global history.  What I call a zeitgeist or the feeling of the times.....

On the surface it appears a generational persona unleashes a new era, called a turning which lasts around 20-25 years, in which a new social, political, and economic climate or mood persists.  They are part of a larger cyclical "saeculum" = a long human life, which usually spans between 80 and 100 years.  Although some saecula have lasted longer than that. The idea states that after every saeculum, a crisis recurs in American history, which is followed by a recovery.  This high is akin to a dopamine hit for the addicted. During this recovery, institutions and communitarian values are strong. Ultimately, succeeding generational archetypes attack and weaken institutions in the name of autonomy and individualism.  Ultimately this creates a tumultuous political environment that ripens conditions for another crisis.  I think the Bush administration and the 2008 bubble they created in the housing market has lead a massive pressure head within the Fourth Turning that grew larger under Obama/Biden Fed Policies. I think Trumps' policies in the courts will ultimate help pop this winter bubble in this Fourth Turning.  His legacy to this "winter turning" will be his three SCOTUS appointments who will shape the court for 25 years. What they do legally from the bench and what they decide will have massive impacts on healthcare and currency value, in my opinion.  

The possible election of Biden will steepen the slope for the change Trump began, and will lead to a toppling of the US Federal Reserve using medical tyranny as its key weapon against “We The People”.

If there is any truth to this prediction above by Mr. McGleenon, it seems the time is "now" to add some air to your life raft.  

Have you ever wondered why political parties always seem to favor public education over any other form of education?  

Many people now in positions of power would like us to use the government's "idea to educate the public".   This is why Senator's Warren and Sander's want to cancel debt for those who have taken on debt to participate in public college education.  Educational paradigms are basically propaganda halls that espouse the philosophy to "dumb things down" for the masses. 

A Black Swan Mitochondriac would never espouse this method of education because their critical thinking ability knows where it leads. Where does it lead you ask?  It isn't a coincidence that governments everywhere want to educate children. Government education, in turn, is supposed to be evidence of the state's goodness and its concern for our well-being. A ghostwriter who translates an innovator's idea never fully gets the message because of their own lack of knowledge. An ignorant man's report of what a wise man says can never be fully accurate because he unconsciously translates what he hears into something he can understand. ... Conquering this fear is the beginning of wisdom. It turns out, what they do not know is precisely what makes an innovator an innovator. And that is lost in translation, and when it is lost, the reader never gets to the truth of the missing ingredients. 

The real explanation for the government's blueprint is a lot less flattering. If the government's propaganda can take root as children grow up, those kids will be no threat to the state apparatus. This will limit revolt.  They'll fasten the chains to their own ankles to become and remain obedient idiots. The innovator knows this, and looks for people who do the hard work of escaping those chains to unlearn to relearn.

CITES:

1. https://www.pdfdrive.com/the-fourth-turning-books.html