STATS: Here's How The Garys' Preferential Ballot Went Down

It's Oscar weekend!! We've been saving the stats on the Garys' Best Picture 0f 2023 preferential ballot just for the occasion! Consider this an explainer for how any Best Picture upset [stares blankly, blinks] might have happened. Basically, nerd shit incoming...

So how did May December emerge victorious as the Garys' best film of 2023? On a preferential ballot, a winner is declared once a film reaches more than a 50% threshold of top votes. If a winner does not immediately emerge, the film with the least #1 votes is taken out of the running, and the #2 votes from those ballots get redistributed to the corresponding films. This happens in however many rounds it takes until a film passes 50% of the vote. May December took the maximum amount of rounds to hit that threshold.

Below, I've included not only where each nominated film placed in the rounds of voting, but data about second and last places votes from those ballots. This gives you an idea how a film a film might advance towards the win without being the initial vote leader. Think of it as this: say Spotlight doesn't top the first round, but early round low placers like Brooklyn or Bridge of Spies help Spotlight by voting it as #2 - and alternately, The Revenant is ranked low on those ballots. Based on the ballots, May December was not a surprise winner, but the rankings did not stay as they were in round one...

Here's how many #1 votes each nominated film received, from the 300+ ballots received:

• May December - 66
• Oppenheimer - 53
• Killers of the Flower Moon - 48
• Barbie - 43
• Past Lives - 35
• Anatomy of a Fall - 31
• Poor Things - 25
• Asteroid City - 24
• The Holdovers - 23
• The Boy and the Heron - 13

10TH PLACE: The Boy and the Heron. The Miyazaki received both the least #1 votes and the most last place votes (21% of total last place votes). Sadly, despite its passionate surge of votes at the nomination stage, it never stood a chance. The Boy and the Heron placed 10th in the nominations.

• On ballots that voted The Boy and the Heron in first place, the films (a tie!) that most appeared in last place were The Holdovers and Barbie. From these ballots, no one placed Past Lives in last place. The film that most appeared in 2nd place was Asteroid City. From these ballots, no one placed Barbie in 2nd.

9TH PLACE: The Holdovers. It also placed 9th in the nominations, though well ahead of The Boy and the Heron (by about 50%).

• On ballots that voted The Holdovers in first place, the film that most appeared in last place was Asteroid City. From these ballots, no one placed Killers of the Flower Moon in last place. The film that most appeared in 2nd place was May December. 

8TH PLACE: Poor Things. It initially placed 7th in the nominations.

• On ballots that voted Poor Things in first place, the films (a tie!) that most appeared in last place were Past Lives and The Boy and the Heron. The film that most appeared in 2nd place was Oppenheimer. From these ballots, no one placed The Boy and the Heron in 2nd.

7TH PLACE: Asteroid City. It also placed 8th in the nominations. However, in the first two days of nominations, it was placing second and third. It seems as talk of its Oscar snubbing cooled, so did the passion to vote for it here.

• On ballots that voted Asteroid City in first place, the film that most appeared in last place was The Holdovers. From these ballots, no one placed Killers of the Flower Moon or Past Lives in last place. 2nd place votes were all over the board: May December, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things tied for most 2nd placements, none of these ballots had Past Lives in second.

6TH PLACE: Past Lives. It also placed 6th in the nominations.

• On ballots that voted Past Lives in first place, the film that most appeared in last place was The Boy and the Heron. The film that most appeared in 2nd place was May December. 

5TH PLACE: Anatomy of a Fall. It also placed 5th in the nominations.

• On ballots that voted Anatomy of a Fall in first place, the film that most appeared in last place was The Boy and the Heron. 2nd place votes were also pretty spread out here: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Past Lives all tied for most #2 votes, while neither Asteroid City nor The Boy and the Heron received a #2 vote.

4TH PLACE: Killers of the Flower Moon. It also placed 2nd in the nominations, with about only a dozen votes separating it and the top earner. Looks like widespread general love among the Garys, but not necessarily passionate support.

• On ballots that voted Killers of the Flower Moon in first place, the film that most appeared in last place was Poor Things. The film that most appeared in 2nd place was May December. 

3RD PLACE: Barbie. After falling behind in earlier rounds, it had the most significant surge of all rounds due to the redistributed Anatomy ballots, knocking out the Scorsese (which had been an active threat for the win from the ballots received in earlier days of voting). It placed 4th in the nominations.

• On ballots that voted Barbie in first place, the film that most appeared in last place was The Boy and the Heron. The film that most appeared in 2nd place was May December. From these ballots, no one placed Barbie in 2nd.

2ND PLACE: Oppenheimer. It placed 3rd in the nominations

• On ballots that voted Oppenheimer in first place, the film that most appeared in last place was The Boy and the Heron. The film that most appeared in 2nd place was Killers of the Flower Moon. 

WINNER: May December. It was the nomination leader and never lost its first place rank during each round of voting, though it remained close at every stage. It received nearly 56% of the final round voting distribution. So if you're ever frustrated by Oscar's Best Picture winner or that of a humble podcast's listenership, remember: it could have been very very close!

• On ballots that voted May in first place, the films (a tie!) that most appeared in last place were Oppenheimer and The Boy and the Heron. The film that most appeared in 2nd place was Asteroid City. From these ballots, no one placed The Holdovers in 2nd.

QUESTIONS? THOUGHTS ON FORMAT CHANGES FOR NEXT YEAR?