Sorare Tactics

GW 485 J1 League Preview - Final

Added 2024-06-14 05:43:48 +0000 UTC

Intro

Rejoice, the international break is over! J league is back with a full schedule ahead.

The GW schedule is also changing a little to align with the Euros/Copa America so YFM and Hiroshima both a double GW as there game on Wednesday also counts for GW485

League Table

Machida surprisingly lost to Niigata and were joined by the leagues form team, Kashima Antlers at the top of the table. Gambas excellent season continued with a narrow win over Shonan to get them up to the dizzy heights of third.

Kobe were unlucky to only get a draw against Urawa and are now 5 points off the top. Down at the bottom of the table, Sapporo awful season continued were a comprehensive defeated again Tokyo Verdy. Kyoto grabbed their first home point against Cerezo but remain winless in their last 7 games.

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

YFM play Hiroshima on Wednesday and this is also covered

Main Points

Scholz (Urawa), Eduardo (YFM) and Yamazaki (Sagan) are all suspended.
Japan u23s played in the states in midweek. Nishio, Araki,Matsuki, Brandon, Handa, Hosoya were all in the squad and at risk of being rested
If games are on Sunday eg Kashiwa, then less risk they will get rested.
For YFM, Popp returned from injury and started in the cup midweek. He is fine to start in the league games.
YFM and Hiroshima have DGW. The top scores for the players will count.
Situation with Matsumoto (Kashiwa) unclear and could see Morita in nets again
Antlers are the form team having won 6 of their last 7. They have scored in 10 games in a row.
Gamba also have won 5 of their last 6 games and conceeded just 2 goals in those games
Cerezo and YFM in surprisingly in bad form. Both have just 1 win in their last 6 games.

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

YFM vs Machida

YFM

Have poor domestic campaign. 13th in the table though with 2 games in hand.
Eduardo is suspended. Hatanaka is an injury concern so likely see Kamijima and Watanabe at the back
Elber in training but still a risk. Waiting on training news.
Popp is fine and will be starting keeper
Double gameweek so can take more risks with players like Elber imo
Are behind in the league so need to catch up, will play strong and aggressively.

Machida

Top of the table but surprise loss vs Niigata and midweek in the cup.
Lots of injuries - Na Sang Ho, Jang Min Gyu and Duke all out.
Hirakawa and Fujio were with the u23s. Some risk will be rested. Oh Se Hun was with S.Korea but short flight and seen in training
Erik now back to full fitness and starting in cup games. Adds competition for places up top
Mochizuki a possibility at RB to counteract speed of YFM attackers. Has been used for this reason already this season.
Dresevic likely comes in at CB

Hiroshima vs Tokyo Verdy

Beat Iwata 2-0 in the last game. Impressive performance with Sotiriou getting both goals
Huge 11-2 win in cup midweek with MJ also coming off from the bench
Araki is out with an injury from cup game.
Mitsuta out favour, likely bench again.
Overall, the same lineup as the game vs Iwata most likely. MJ from bench to build up mins

Tokyo Verdy

Impressive win vs Sapporo. Someno and Kimura getting 2 goals each.
Changed to 3 at the back. Likely continue this way.Miyahara is struggling with this setup, his spot at risk though can play RW or if they revert to 4 will be RWB.
Taniguchi returned in cup game, likely gets more mins from bench
Matheus went off with an injury in the cup. Manager said it was only minor

Kyoto vs Sapporo

Kyoto

Joint bottom of table. Got 2 draws in a row, some stability coming in
Miyamoto did well last game, should continue over error prone Api imo
Kawasaki went with the u23s to USA, slight risk will be rested.
This is between bottom 2 sides.

Sapporo

Bottom of table. 3 losses in a row.
Injuries piling up. Aoki, Asano, Miyazawa and Suga all out
Supachok injured on int training and v unlikely to feature here.
Without a clean sheet in 7 games.

Cerezo vs Urawa

Cerezo

9th in table. Drew to Kyoto last game and having inconsistent season
Noborizato is out injured. Maikuma has left for contract talks in europe and out
Nishio was with u23s. Some risk will be rested here.

Urawa

Scholz is suspended. Sato likely to come in. Gustafsson picked up an injury on int duty.
Iwao and Yasui favs in midfield. Okubo and Matsuo both only in partial training
Nakajima should be ok to start. Didnt see Solbakken in recent training pics, condition unclear.
Havent had a clean sheet vs Cerezo in their last 6 games.

Kobe vs Kawasaki

Kobe

Winless in 3 games and down to 4th in the table.
When team has lost/played bad, the manager has shaken things up. Miyashiro was man of match in cup game midweek so i have him as fav to play here
Muto a slight injury concern.
Lots of competition in LW eg Yuruki vs Sasaki/Patric. Sasaki is slight fav.

Kawasaki

Beat Nagoya last game with a few changes in lineup (again!)
Tachibanada has been used as LB, risk of this happening again. Hard to predict. Note if he is in mid, will reduce chances of Seko starting. Lots depends on fitness of Jesiel/Takai as if they start, will see Sasaki move to LB.
Jeseil in training but unclear if fit to start. Takai returning from u23 int duty and could be rested.
Marchino was dropped last game. At risk again

Fukuoka vs Sagan

Fukuoka

Back to back wins. Big cup win on Wednesday.
Zahedi and Grolli return from suspension
Miya should also start, played midweek.
Keeper Nagaishii is out for 3 months meaning Murakami is relatively safe in nets....for now
Unbeaten against Sagan in their last 5 meetings.

Sagan

Lost last 2 league games. 4th bottom of table.
Kimura is an injury concern, unclear info. Yamazaki is suspended.
Harada available after suspension

Kashima vs Niigata

Kashima

Beat YFM 3-2 to move joint top.
Won last 4 games in a row. Won in league cup midweek.
Chinen a slight injury concern. I read he went off in the cup game with an injury, limited info available
Rest of team has been very stable.

Niigata

Suprise win vs Machida. Still having relatively poor season.
Takagi, Miyomoto and Hoshi confirmed out injured.
Ono, Ota are both concerns. Lots of options up front/mid depending on fitness. In general lots of injury problems inside squad
Horigome is an option at LB. Has been vocal this week though again im not sure if fit to start.
Lost last 3 meetings vs Kashima.

FC Tokyo vs Iwata

7th in the table. Beat Sagan Tosu last game. Won midweek in Emperors Cup
Kimoto and Shirai out with injuries. Kashif left int duty early with injury too
Brandon, Araki and Matsuki were all with u23 side. Nagatomo was with Japan side and had muscle issues.
Have been playing with different strategies including not starting Diego

Iwata

Lost to Hiroshima in league last game and knocked out of Emperors cup midweek.
Top scorer Germain out injured.
Suzuki was with u23s. Morioka can play CB

Nagoya vs Shonan

Nagoya

Lost to Kawasaki 2-1 before the int break and 8th in the table. Surprise loss to non-league side in Emperors cup
Junker, Ono, Kawamura and Izumi all out injured. Nagai also likely out with an injury though nothing official.
Patric likely the target man up front. Sakai also back from injury.

Shonan

3rd bottom of the table. Lost last 2 league games
Min Tae and Hata are out injured
Tachi played in the league cup and in the running to play
SBK was away on int duty. Has in the past not started after this.

Gamba vs Kashiwa

Gamba

Unbeaten in 6 games with 5 wins and a draw. Up to third
Alano and Miura out with injuries
Handa played for u23s and a risk. Lavi was on int duty and unlikely to start.
Likely keep to similar lineup as last 2 games.

Kashiwa

Lost last 2 games including 2-0 home loss to Fukuka.
Limited team news available. Matsumoto likely still out by the way club were talking. Morita to continue
Takamine is back and should start. Inukai is out injured so Tatsuta likely comes in (eek)
Hosoya and Sekine were both with u23s. As the game is on Sunday should be fine to start imo

SO5 Analysis

Best xG - Hiroshima (1.8 xG,

Best CS - Hiroshima (65% CS), Kobe (55% CS), Antlers (54%CS)

Best Stack - Hiroshima, Kashima

Hiroshima have the best fixture according to the bookies. Though I agree its a nice game to target, Verdy are more solid than the odds suggest. This is often the case with newly promoted sides I find.

I also like Antlers chances vs Niigata. Kashima are the form team and are unbeaten at home this season. Gamba also have been in great form and play against a misfiring Kashiwa without key defender Inukai.

As a reminder, YFM and Hiroshima have two games. With YFM in particular, we can use players with a bit more confidence as they will have two chances to play. Saying that, the games against Machida and Hiroshima are very tough and YFM havent been playing great under Harry Kewell so far.

In contender, lots of leagues have finished in Europe including Scotland, Germany and Italy. This means J league players and stacks are much more competitive especially with in-season.