Lmaoo yes it did cross my mind. What's difficult is it's not necessarily that inversing myself would have printed (in a real way), because the error was in sizing too large and not sticking to a strategy because of that. When I'm not sticking to a strategy, I find my mistakes usually get "exploited" by the market. It's a subtly different thing than having a negative edge that you can just inverse.
Long and short in small caps :(
Ben needs your money
2025-12-18 20:17:01 +0000 UTC
At any point during that nearly monotonic weeks-long drawdown did you think "I should be doing the exact opposite of what I am now because then the line will go in the other direction?" I'd probably be frustrated enough to try that.
Also what were you actually doing to lose all that money?
Mikhail Soumar
2025-12-16 07:24:53 +0000 UTC
I basically got tilted and stopped following any of the risk management things I had in place
Ben needs your money
2025-12-05 00:27:17 +0000 UTC
I am curious since you said that you paper traded this strategy why didn’t you have a proper risk management setup. Is it due to the extremely volatile nature of small caps. If that’s the case you need to place a maximum percentage drawdown to avoid what happened.
Apo
2025-12-04 15:10:20 +0000 UTC
I focus on biotech stocks as Ben already knows, been killing it so far this year, SPRB is one that I wan't to own, but don't have the balls to do it as their drug is still far away from approval and price can and has been sucking dih since the pump. The drug looks quite good btw
Martin is good at knowing the intrisic value of a business, not so good at knowing that it can take a long fucking time to get there, with biotech month to years is the normal horizon
(I know this wasn't about SPRB specifically just wanted to share my thoughts)
TheSpinBoy
2025-11-29 23:26:33 +0000 UTC
I'd worry a little about expansion in the MSTR premium to NAV if we got a bounce in Bitcoin, as historically it has been there but recently collapsed. The inverse of that could also be true tho tbh idk lol. What's your idea there?
Ben needs your money
2025-11-24 18:30:09 +0000 UTC
What do you think about going long IBIT or Spot Bitcoin and short MSTR
Entertainment To Go
2025-11-24 14:57:49 +0000 UTC
Actually all manual pressing buy and sell for 2-8hrs. I tried to automate this a few months ago precisely for avoiding these types of situations, but it's actually really really hard. When you try to do it, you realize your brain is surprisingly good at creating highly nuanced models of very very specific moments in a way that's hard to quantify. I'd say I have about 20-30 or so mental models each containing 10-20 logical steps. This market is so fast that they have to become second nature. It's taken me about 1.5 years to get there working on this every day with huge amounts of failure.
Not saying it can't be done tho, and if someone could do it they'd PRINT
Ben needs your money
2025-11-23 16:34:02 +0000 UTC
Q for you - when you say you do "hundreds" of trades per day...is there any type of automation involved, or manually (ass in seat sort of thing)?