Excel LADZ - September 2024 Update

G’day, lads! Last month saw some tremendous growth for the channel - Excel LADZ now has over 4,200 subscribers on YouTube and over 2,500 free & paid patrons! In this article, I’ll recap the posts I’ve made over the past few weeks, and update you all on what’s dropping next.

August - ClubELO, Football Model & College Football ELO Model

Last month, I posted three models:

Firstly, I made an update to the ‘ClubELO Model’, which imports the calculations found in ClubELO’s API. Now, users merely have to press “Refresh All”, along with refreshing the PivotTable, to bring in their predictions for the day, rather than copy and pasting the data manually.

Secondly, I updated the ‘Excel LADZ - European Football Model’ to make use of the new 2024-25 stats. This model uses the Poisson Distribution to find probabilities for all major markets - Head-to-Head, Under/Over Goals, Double Chance, and Exact Scoreline.

In response to this model, a popular query from Patrons was on how to add another league to the model. Right now, the model covers the EPL, LaLiga, Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Bundesliga. However, it is definitely possible to add a league like the EFL Championship to the model. I’m releasing a walk-through tutorial on how to do this in the coming days.

Lastly, I released an ELO-Based College Football Model. These ELO Ratings are entirely based off of the Warren Nolan College Football website, so full credit goes to them for the calculations. Using the simple ELO Win % formula, implying that an advantage of 400 points for Team A over Team B equates to an approximately 90% winning chance for Team A, the chance of Team A and Team B winning can be equated. The only change I’ve made to this formula is a 100 point advantage to the home team (which can easily be expanded/reduced in the ELO Win % formula in the spreadsheet).

September - NFL Model and YouTube Video

Starting in September is the NFL. Naturally, I had to make a model for this! I’m releasing the ‘Excel LADZ - NFL Model (Week 1 Version)’ to Patrons within the next 24-48 hours. Unfortunately, NFL.com doesn't release a structured table for the 2024-25 stats necessary in this model until after the first game has been played. As a result, I need to wait until after Week 1 has been played to import this data into the spreadsheet using a Power Query. It’s only a minor inconvenience though - the full model, able to be updated automatically after every round, will be available before Week 2.

I also plan for this model to be the next YouTube video on the channel. Please, drop any questions you have about this model in the comments below! Of course, if you aren’t already, I highly recommend becoming a member of the Patreon! Access every model, and learn how to model sports efficiently using Excel, and mathematically with appropriate probability distributions 🔥