Mailbag: Catching up with the Pacers after the All-Star Break

Assessing the new (old) starting lineup, gauging concerns about the offense of the team's best defender, and looking ahead to the playoffs

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

There's never a good time to get sick, but it certainly would've been preferable to get sick during or right before the All-Star Break, rather than after the All-Star Break -- when the Pacers have won three of their last four games and just finished playing three games in four nights. Without going into detail, since testing positive for COVID over the weekend, I'm still not better. I'm taking the advice of those close to me to prioritize rest as much as possible, but I haven't taken a break from catching up on film, even to the point of falling asleep with my laptop a few times this week.

As such, while there may be some accidental strings of "zzzzzzz" in my answers (there aren't!), what follows is my best effort to maintain the quality that has hopefully come to be expected from these exchanges, despite the fact that I'm not feeling my best. In essence, this is the "blog don't stop" version of "ball don't stop."

So, without further ado, let's mailbag!

SGD: Have the Pacers run much empty PnR with Mathurin and Obi, and could that be the next step in Mathurin's passing+driving development in addition to his recent developments of getting the defender on his back and slowing it down to snake? I could see Mathurin succeeding in empty, but I am nervous he may limit himself to just the drive or the pass to Obi instead of the various skips he could also make. Even with that concern, I do think this would be a positive play in general for the Pacers, and I appreciate Benn's willingness to throw an alley-oop to Obi--one of the best finishers in the NBA both layups and dunks--in the half-court.

As a team, the Pacers lead the league in empty strong-side corner ball-screens per 100 possessions. A big part of the reason why is how often they run what they call "c," typically with Pascal Siakam coming up out of the corner to set a vertical chase screen for the ball. For years, since Rick Carlisle took over as head coach, I've wondered why they call that play "c" or will hold up the letter "c" just before launching into the action. My first, somewhat obvious, guess has been that it's a reference to "chase." I've also thought the same with regard to "corner," but the screener, to be more precise, doesn't always approach just from the corner. At Gainbridge Fieldhouse, with Indiana "Pacers" scrawled along the baseline, sometimes, they are also sprinting up to the ball, quite literally, from the letter "c."

Hmm, this is either very intriguing (mystery solved?!?) or evidence that I've been cooped up in my house, you might say, re-Cooperating for way too long. I'll let you be the judge. At any rate, here is Obi Toppin setting one of the those vertical chase screens for Mathurin with an empty strong-side corner, albeit at Capitol One Arena, where the two of them were instrumental in sparking a comeback.

Unlike Siakam, who has mastered the technique of slowing down and staying on the low side as the screener while using his hands without any grabbing or elbow-to-wrist extension to gently shift the weight of the on-ball defender, Toppin will more often just space out to the perimeter, rather than screening with the intention of sealing the switch. This also shows up out of the other main action that sees them link up in the same corner. Here, when Mathurin runs over the pair of Iverson-like staggered screens, Toppin follows over the top of Siakam to flow, once again, into empty strong-side corner pick-and-roll.

Notably, as was written in this piece about Mathurin choosing his own adventure, when the Wizards switch that pick, Toppin slips out to the corner, with everyone else lining up to provide optimum spacing around the perimeter mismatch.

Of course, not every defense will switch. In Los Angeles, for example, when Jaxson Hayes was playing in drop, Mathurin could be seen, as you mentioned, going to his stall dribble to snake in front of Toppin, who didn't quite get the memo and instead slipped out of the pick, rolling directly into his path.

All's well that ends well, as Mathurin still managed to earn a trip to the line, but the two of them have more to flesh out to work in tandem as a two-man combination. On the season, Toppin has only set 12 empty strong-side corner screens for Mathurin, and Mathurin has only completed one pass out of those actions to Toppin, with the only connection coming against New York's ice coverage.

Even there, they aren't exactly in sync with each other. If they're going to attack that type of defense with the roll, then they need to do so with tandem spacing, staying in line with each other so the pocket pass will be available. Otherwise, Toppin just needs to pop from the get go.

There's been some encouraging flashes in other settings. Here, the defense from the Knicks is pretty sketchy (i.e. tagging is apparently optional? why doesn't anyone run the seam in front of Toppin? etc.), but with both corners filled, Mathurin manages to locate Toppin for the lob playing downhill out of gut Chicago action (i.e. a middle pindown into a hand-off) with his defender trailing after overplaying the hand-off.

Overall, it's possible that some of their empty strong-side corner chemistry will develop with time now that Mathurin is back in a bench role, but they've only played 152 minutes together without either of Haliburton or Nembhard on the floor as initiators and the two most-used lineups also include Siakam, who is a more threatening option playing out of those actions. To warrant more reps, the roll pacing is going to have to improve, but who knows … maybe, we'll just have to wait and "c."

(Yep, I've definitely been in the house too long.)

Nick Boornazian: Given the recent discussion around Benn/Aaron and who should be the starter, what developments does Aaron need to make to take that 6th man lead role when not starting, conversely what does Benn need to do as a starter to be better in that role?

Here's a rare example of a complementary compliment: Aaron Nesmith is a very good system player. When it comes to playing with pace or out of "pace after," he runs hard to the corners, and he consistently knows where to move when the ball moves, creating space to connect one action to the next. That said, the only regular rotation player on the roster who has been assisted on a higher percentage of their made field goals than Nesmith (87.3 percent) is Turner (89.8 percent), who is obviously a big. Whether Nesmith plays with the starters or off the bench, he's mostly going to spot-up and space around the advantages created by others; it's just a matter of which lineup needs that more along with what he brings as a defender. Offensively, he isn't going to be a focal point of either group.

As for Mathurin, when the Pacers got outscored 145-86 in the first quarter of the four games they played out west, he was leading the team in first-quarter usage. The reason for those slow starts certainly wasn't all on him (i.e. he was also leading the team in first-quarter scoring! the team's transition defense was bad!), but there were some glitches with his reads when playing at random, along with some defensive snafus. They weren't going to not start Haliburton, Siakam, or Turner, and Nembhard is too critical at the point of attack. That leaves Mathurin. For the most part, Mathurin plays more fluidly out of sets, when he can be featured with more of a clear road map for how the offense will develop. That's easier to accommodate and accentuate with him in that, as you refer to it, "lead sixth-man role."

For him to be "better" as a starter, he could still stand to widen his field of vision beyond that of his own defender in certain scenarios. As was pointed out in the prior response, when Mathurin has a mismatch, Toppin will typically respond by spacing out to the perimeter. When Turner and Siakam are on the floor, however, those mismatches should arguably be less one-sided.

Put simply, if Turner fights for position multiple times against Russell Westbrook, he should probably touch the ball. Ditto for Luke Kennard.

To be fair, Turner didn't exactly get and stay in front there, and he still could've smashed the mismatch on the glass, but the bigger issue for Mathurin is that he doesn't always seem like he sees those opportunities. In that regard, it was definitely a welcome sight against the Raptors to see him leading Myles Turner with a pass in semi-transition, while directing traffic, before walling up Immanuel Quickley at the other end. Granted, Quickley isn't exactly known for his shake, and the opportunity for Turner to dive was wide open, but at least Mathurin saw it.

He can also struggle with maintaining focus -- and not just with regard to his recurrent propensity for getting back-cut or missing help-the-helper rotations (which, to be fair, applied to plenty of players most recently against the Nuggets). Sometimes, it's simple things. He nor Haliburton are being pressured here. This should just be an ordinary pass, but the fact that it's off-target throws off the rhythm of the action.

Likewise, there needs to be more adherence to the scouting report than taking this type of angle against a left-handed player. (And yes, before you say anything, the missed box out from Siakam obviously isn't good either.)

Mathurin can be a breath-taking shot-maker, including to the point of playing himself into the closing lineup with the other players lining up to him to close against the Wizards, but when the Pacers aren't featuring him out of sets, he needs to be able to function more consistently as a part of a whole when he plays with the starters. More than anything though, given the way in which Nesmith is dependent upon being fed, whereas Mathurin can more often feed himself, none of this is so much about Mathurin necessarily needing to be "better," as much as taking a chance on what's best for the balance of the team.

Tom Hersz: Do you think the switch of Nesmith into the starting unit over Mathurin is working? The Pacers got off to a slow start a few game in a row since the switch up until the Clippers game. Is it better to prioritize offense or defense at the start of games? 

As was laid out above and in my video podcast about finding fast fixes for the slow starts, the decision probably wasn't that binary. To your point, the change wasn't a fast fix. They've still lost four of their last six first quarters, albeit while getting outscored by 3.8 points per 100 possessions, compared to 58.7 during their time out west. The new starting lineup, meanwhile, is -14 in 25 first-quarter minutes since making the swap. Still, Mathurin has readily adapted to his return to the bench, averaging 14.7 points on 50 percent shooting while still getting plenty of usage, and it seems telling that there has been more of an emphasis on ensuring that Haliburton is aggressive with his own offense earlier, especially against exaggerated coverages.

Nesmith is an upgrade over Mathurin as a defender and has offered some flexibility to Nembhard the last few games in terms of giving top assignments different looks, but starting him isn't just about making a decision between offense and defense. To repeat, it's likely a play to bring out the best in both of them, while also taking a chance on what's best for the balance of the team. Mathurin started last season as a starter and finished last season as a reserve. Nesmith finished last season as a starter and returned to action as a reserve, before just now being reinserted into the starting lineup. If nothing else, the takeaway should be that, for now and moving forward, changes will be made if they need to be made.

cloudy days: What playoff matchup are you most excited for? I think Pistons/Pacers would be so fun! 

My nephew would definitely be excited to build more LEGO dioramas and re-enactments, that's for sure. Narratives aside (dads are getting involved now, apparently?), that's probably (maybe?) the most favorable match-up for the Pacers among the possible options.

The Pistons are currently rolling on an eight-game win streak with the league's second-best net rating over that stretch, but there isn't an obvious answer for who Jalen Duren should guard in the frontcourt. After Myles Turner tied his career high for made threes in a game on January 16, going 8-of-11 from deep with Duren repeatedly losing track of him on the perimeter as his primary assignment, the Pistons decided to make a change. Two weeks later, when the two teams met again at Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Duren was no longer guarding Turner. From the opening tip, he was defending Pascal Siakam, who finished with 37 points, including going 4-of-7 from three.

As was written here at the time, toward the end of the fourth quarter, after Siakam had dusted Duren in a lopsided footrace to the rim out of a slot-to-slot flip from T.J. McConnell, Detroit's big man looked to match-up with Turner again on the next defensive possession. When Duren and Siakam linked up again with under three minutes to play, Siakam called for a screen from Nesmith to bring Malik Beasley to the ball at the top of the key. The Pistons didn't switch on the inverted screening action, which meant that Duren was left to fend for himself in the unfamiliar position of defending at the point of attack as a big. When he ducked under, Siakam dribbled off the pick to his left and banked in a three.

Even when Siakam isn't hitting from deep (he's just 3-of-12 since returning from the All-Star Break), he already showed in the playoffs last season, whether against Brook Lopez or Al Horford, that he can attack and reverse cross-matches against opposing fives. Remember, Lopez only lasted against that match-up for two games, before the Bucks swapped him onto Turner and, eventually, tried him against Nesmith while resorting to switching. If the Pistons decide to live with whatever they get from Turner from deep, then Siakam is going to regain the size advantage he had in the prior game, when he gave buckets to five different Pistons, including Ron Hollins, Ausar Thompson, Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Tobias Harris.

According to Second Spectrum, the Pacers have scored 1.182 points per chance out of Siakam's 22 post-ups against Detroit this season, compared to 1.170 overall. Put simply, a player who is already a beast on the block becomes even more of a beast on the block versus the Pistons, who have been strangely resistant to doubling him.

For example, Tyrese Haliburton isn't on the floor for this possession. Thomas Bryant is one pass away, and T.J. McConnell is in the weak-side corner. Why exactly is everyone staying home?

That would likely change in a playoff series, at least against hybrid lineups. Still, even if Siakam starts seeing extra bodies, the other benefit of this match-up for him is that there are avenues for him to play to his strengths roaming into driving avenues on defense.

He and Nesmith will likely toggle between guarding Tobias Harris and "guarding" Ausar Thompson. Meanwhile, Nembhard will take the brunt of the assignment the full-length of the floor against Cade Cunningham, but the Pacers will double the star guard from the top on bully drives, mix in some aggressive coverages with Turner, and rely on Siakam to pounce on any leaks.

If they can consistently demonstrate this degree of cohesiveness, especially when Cunningham targets Haliburton, then this, as you say, should be a fun series.

Plus, compared to the Bucks, who rank fourth in zone frequency, which has caused some hiccups for the Pacers, the Pistons haven't dabbled much in the alternate form of coverage, coming in at just 23rd. Rebounding concerns will likely always loom, but a lot about this match-up also generally points toward a fun series for Siakam, which is to say nothing of the player (Haliburton) who seemingly has dads getting mad online. So yeah, fun!

Thomas: I'm still trying to sort through my thoughts on perimeter defenders who can't shoot. Do you think that high energy secondary creation and crashing the offensive glass is going to be a long term path to viability for perimeter players? The Thompson's are so fascinating to me on this front. They are so good on defense and so smart but I don't know what they are on offense long term.

So, this is a topic that I kept bringing up over the summer and just before the Pacers waived Kendall Brown. As an archetype, raw, non-shooting, athletic wings have a tendency to get played off the floor in the playoffs. Just look at the Finals rosters over the last five seasons. The only role players who have shot below 30 percent from three in the Finals while attempting fewer than 4.0 threes per 36 minutes are Maxi Kleber, who was ramping up from injury, Derrick Jones Jr., who was ignored with aplomb by the Celtics above the break, and Gary Payton II who played with Steph Curry (enough said). The fact of the matter is, teams are generally more apt to hide weak-links who could be targeted on defense than they are to work around defense-first or defense-only players who get ignored on offense -- unless the defense is extraordinary special.

Ausar Thompson, despite shooting just 21.9 percent from three on only 1.5 attempts per 36 minutes, is a very special defender. This is absurd.

If the Pistons were to play the Pacers, with Pascal Siakam playing the part of roamer, there's a few things they could try differently. When Thompson is weak-side corner, he needs to be more active cutting behind Siakam's rotation. Make Siakam choose between tagging and following him. Most likely, Siakam isn't going to follow, so why not have him run baseline during pick-and-roll and hook back into a corner pin-in screen on Haliburton for Tim Hardaway Jr. in the opposite corner?

Another option, when he's standing all by himself in the corner, would be an uphill dribble hand-off or throw-and-chase automatic. Instead of Cunningham-Duren pic-and-roll, imagine here that Duren is playing out of delay and wheeling above the break, with Cunningham at the wing on the same side of the floor as Thompson.

If Duren swings the ball to Cunningham at the wing, then Cunningham would pass to Thompson in the corner, who would dribble uphill into a hand-off for Cunningham, likely forcing Siakam to commit. After pitching back to Cunningham, he could slip to the rim. To target a weak-spot for the Pacers while being treated like a weak-link by the Pacers, Detroit should also consider tagging up. If Thompson runs to Siakam's back and drives him into the paint on any offensive shot for the Pistons (like the Sixers did at the beginning of the season against the Pacers), he could potentially create 50/50 opportunities on the glass, which can sometimes be like 70/30 opportunities when Indiana is involved. Plus, he would also reap the benefit of staying matched up with Siakam in transition and potentially limiting his early work with high seals.

Lastly, the Pacers are most likely going to continue applying un(press)cedented amounts of press, so mixing in more possessions with Thompson as the bring-up ballhandler will at least force Siakam to guard the full-length of the floor. From there, Thompson can create space with contact out of hand-offs or operate out of the elbows, where there's more reason to respect him from closer range.

Similar to how the Pistons didn't really double Siakam during the regular-season series, they also didn't exactly double-down on strategies to attack his roaming.

Ausar isn't Kendall Brown. He's much stickier on defense, but to what degree he can force his match-up to stick to him so that he can stick to the floor will be one of the most compelling chess matches to watch from a Detroit playoff berth, especially if that berth comes against a Pacers team whose defensive scheme is already geared to feature Siakam as a supplementary guardrail.

Jeff Hasser: Looking at the individual players 3 point shooting percentage, which players do you think are overperforming, underperforming, or about accurate in terms of how they are shooting from deep this year? And is there any of the numbers that you think may change during the playoffs? For example, it always feels like Mathurin loves games with a large spotlight.

Aaron Nesmith stands out here. Not so much because he's shooting just 35.1 percent from three on 3.6 attempts per game since returning from his ankle injury (he's up to 42 percent over this four-game homestand!), but rather because of the steep drop-off that occurred in the playoffs last season. Just look at the difference in his actual effective field-goal percentage from three in the postseason compared to the regular season, even though his expected effective field-goal percentage stayed very nearly the same.

Expected eFG% vs. Actual eFG% (Difference)

• Regular season: 57.88 - 62.87, (+5.00)

• Playoffs: 57.97 - 41.77 (-16.20)

Once he started to see more flyby closeouts, he struggled to recapture his rhythm following a lateral dribble.

Last season, he attempted over 85 percent of his threes without a dribble. This season, that number has dipped to 76 percent, with him shooting 5-of-12 on one-dribble threes. He went 1-of-7 on those shots in the playoffs a year ago. The progress he makes in that area, along with his pull-up two, will likely be critical to whether he can avoid a repeat of last season's regression.

Kyle Taylor: I’d be curious to hear your thoughts on Nembhard’s offense. His passing and driving remain solid to good but I’m concerned about his shooting. Should I be? His career TS%/EFG% splits are only okay, he’s taking a ton of middies (without shooting great there), and while his FTr is up, it’s still poor. And all of this is often against subpar matchups. What do you think? At what point should I be worried? I feel like the answer is “when teams openly dare him to shoot” — but I also feel like that’s what teams already should be doing.

One thing that works in Nembhard's favor, even as he's gone from shooting 50.0 percent on 2.9 catch-and-shoot threes per game during the playoffs to 32.0 percent on just 1.8 attempts this season, is that he plays on a team with centers who can space to the corner. When the Pacers flatten out the defense for Haliburton to get downhill, for example, there are strategic benefits to placing Nembhard in the dunker spot with the bigs in the corners.

There, because Nembhard is the player standing in the dunker spot, Haliburton only has to contend with a guard at the rim, as opposed to Jaren Jackson Jr.

Also, although the Nuggets were consistently committing two defenders to the ball and didn't really require extra help at the nail, watch Nembhard on this possession.

Almost anytime the ball is moving toward the full-side of the floor, with both the wing and corner filled, he will put tension on the nail help defender by automatically cutting down to the short corner to set a corner pin-in screen. With Mathurin stepping through the two defenders to deliver the skip pass (oh hey, a Mathurin-Toppin connection!), everything else is effectively just window dressing in that particular context, but the point still remains that Nembhard is generally clever in finding hacks to reshape the defense, even when he isn't shooting.

The bigger issue, especially in that game, can be his overabundance of pump fakes. He's very adept at playing off two feet and can wriggle into tight spaces, as he did early against Jamal Murray to access the rim; however, when the defender stays down, there are still occasions when he can get stranded.

Likewise, the Pacers don't really need him committing a turnover after pump-faking out of a corner three. Meanwhile, there were a lot of, let's say, curiosities to his game against the Raptors. In addition to coming up empty on four attempts from deep, he made some telegraphed passing reads (shoutout to Jonathan Mogbo, though, for some of the angles he took away after switching) and almost seemed to be going out of his way to do a lot with his left while avoiding his right. When he was a rookie, I wrote a piece at SB Nation's Indy Cornrows about his weak-hand strengths, as far as the velocity he gets on passes with his left, as well as his preference for rejecting screens and attacking left, but this went beyond some of those delightful quirks.

He brought the ball up the right side of the floor with his left hand. There were bobbles on his right-to-left cross, there was a noticeable miscue when he tried to go to his escape dribble behind the back with his right, and he almost lost the handle, dribbling far outside the circumference of his body to his right on a wide-angled drive around the logo out of stack action.

Even when he was aggressive, pushing the ball to the rim at the end of the third quarter, it definitely seemed interesting that he went to his in-and-out dribble with his left, driving left the whole route to the basket, when the opportunity to snake and drag out the defense was available to him. There's no way to know whether any of this is affecting his shot or is merely a reflection of needing to shore up his ball-handling, but it was definitely a rough performance, which also included some slippage on the defensive end -- at least by comparison to his own standard.

That said, the Pacers are still considerably better, in terms of swing net rating, with him on the court, and they've scored 1.015 points per chance with him as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, which ranks 20th among the 75 guards who have played out of at least 500 ball-screens. The bench offense, though, has been clunky the last two games with him initiating next to Mathurin in the absence of T.J. McConnell. By the start of the fourth quarter against Denver, Nembhard and Mathurin were replaced by Sheppard and Nesmith, who played the entire final frame along with Haliburton, Siakam, and Turner on the second night of a back-to-back. As it turns out, that group ended up shooting just 3-of-9 from deep over the last six minutes while effectively running on fumes.

Overall, he's only made two of his last 19 three-point attempts. There was a similar six-game stretch last season in March, when he shot 5-of-20. That doesn't mean this is guaranteed to turn around like last season (he's having a worse shooting season overall), but these rough patches aren't exactly unprecedented. Right now, while there may be times when the Pacers need more from him (i.e. knocking down some open threes in transition sure would be nice!), it's rare -- even with the dip in shooting -- that they need and/or require more of him, as it pertains to everything he adds while staying cognizant and working around what he might take away.

Matt Edwards: As another person that has a Lactose allergy and a lot of stomach issues - I wanted to let you know that you need to try Jeni’s lactose free Texas sheet cake ice cream - it’s my favorite ice cream ever. Also need to know your opinion on Jonny pops if you have had them! 

While I appreciate the recommendation from someone who knows the pain of dairy, I don't plan on letting that creamsicle I tried at the start of the season become a gateway treat for the lesser frozen snack (also known as ice-cream) -- even if it's lactose free. Along with the forever-mandated no fake trade embargo, the only other rule for this monthly mailbag proceeding is maintaining it as a safe space for popsicle enthusiasts and popsicle enthusiasts only, which you appear to be.

Welcome, Matt!

As for Johnny pops, I have not tried them yet, but I recently saw the Rainbow Fruit Stacker variety at Target. Unfortunately, I didn't feel as though I was in close enough proximity to my house to guarantee safe transport, and unlike the time when my sister and I finished a whole box of popsicles on a mailbag road trip under similar circumstances, I didn't have someone with me who I could force-feed them to.

Once I rejoin the outside world, this will be on my to-do list -- well, the part where I try them and report back will be on my to-do list. I need to be better about winning converts to popsicles based on the obvious merits rather than stooping to coercion.

Patron-only Popsicle Content

Speaking of which! It seems as though I've officially crossed over into being old. When All-Star Weekend was in Indy last season, my sister and I had plans to celebrate our birthdays at Nicey Treat, only to find out that February is the offseason for my favorite popsicle hang. (Apparently, not everyone agrees that popsicles can be enjoyed regardless of weather.) At any rate, my sister asked me what I wanted to do this year, and I told her, "I'm thinking Nicey Treat." She responded glibly, "Don't you remember? They're closed this time of year."

I did not remember! So, not only was I not getting Nicey Treat, I also had to deal with the shock of realizing that I've reached the age where I just don't remember what are obviously very formative life events. Fortunately, I was quickly rejuvenated when my sister informed me that she had found a new popsicle hang that had just opened in Fort Wayne and would be willing to go on another road trip.

Introducing, La Michoacana!

As the neon sign on the mirrored wall says, I can confirm this is the place.

For those interested, I've tried lots of strawberry popsicles. I've also tried lots of varieties of paletas. This kiwi-strawberry paleta, made with fresh, real fruit, is the best I've ever had in either category. I still love Nicey Treat, but this was also a welcome treat and special memory, which (this time) I'll likely keep logged away since I've had plenty of time alone with my thoughts while trying to get better.

For that reason, if you've made it this far, thank you for allowing me this time to recover while also supporting me in having a place to share my clearly very deep and not at all zany basketball (and basketball-adjacent) thoughts with you.

"C" you soon -- hopefully.