Why Jarace Walker is a microcosm of the Pacers

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By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

In retrospect, this was probably foreseeable. After all, the signs were there. When Rick Carlisle spoke at Media Day, he talked for 3:30 before opening the floor for questions. During that span, when he was laying the groundwork for the competitive nature of camp and how the players would largely decide who plays, he made the following comment -- without being prompted:

"Whatever happens, we've got a great developmental situation with Tom Hankins coaching our G League team," he said. "My hope is that our young guys will be ready to contribute and that we can find some opportunities for them to play or that they flat out earn minutes, but if we get in a situation where those guys aren't playing much, we have the G League..."

Without reading too deeply between the lines, those words come across a bit like urging caution (perhaps based on what was already being seen behind closed doors at workouts ahead of camp), while also underscoring the overall mantra from preseason that spots in the rotation would have to be earned, rather than given. A few days later, the Pacers opened the exhibition slate against the Memphis Grizzlies and neither rookie played until after halftime, with Obi Toppin, Aaron Nesmith, and Jordan Nwora all logging minutes at forward before Jarace Walker, who was selected No. 8 overall in the most recent draft. After finishing his debut with 19 points, including four made threes, to go with nine rebounds and four assists, Walker leapfrogged Nwora in the pecking order versus the Rockets, subbing in directly for Toppin as part of a hockey rotation midway through the first quarter. Of course, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner weren't in uniform for that game. When the projected starting lineup was available against Atlanta, Nesmith emerged as the back-up four, in what seems likely to foreshadow how the bench will take shape when the regular season begins on Wednesday -- especially given that Walker didn't enter until the fourth quarter against the Cavs.

That means, just as Carlisle indicated might be a possibility at Media Day, there's a solid chance that a consistent role isn't in the offing for the prized rookie, which seems less than ideal for a team that is still keeping an eye on development while also being justifiable for a team that wants to take a competitive step forward as far as winning. In that regard, Walker arguably represents the fine line that the Pacers are currently straddling.

To understand why, consider the valid reasons for not playing him, as they waver between moving forward with the intention of climbing the standings amid an attempt to also avoid skipping steps.

T.J. McConnell has played too well not to play

Here's a strange sentence: It's possible that the combination of WWE Fastlane and a kidney stone might end up having a far-reaching effect on the playing rotation this season. Alright so, that might be a bit of a stretch, but the fact that Tyrese Haliburton had to catch a later flight to Memphis after attending that event in Indy at the same time as Andrew Nembhard suddenly needed to be sidelined meant that T.J. McConnell wasn't just in the lineup for the Pacers; he was in the starting lineup -- as the only available point guard. There's no way to know what the intended course of action would've been if Nembhard had been healthy. In that event, maybe McConnell opens preseason as the third string point guard or starts out doing less of the steering alongside Nembhard. It seems more likely that Nembhard would've been expected to adjust, just as he largely did on Friday while working himself back into shape against a mixture of all-out switching and zone that had the initial fit of the second unit appearing quite clunky. Whatever the case, McConnell had free rein of the offense for a sizable chunk of the exhibition slate and once the juice he brings as a "serial paint-attacker" was out of the jar, there was no putting it back. Barring some missed shots and awkwardness against Cleveland, he's simply played too well not to play him, including during the intra-squad scrimmage at Fan Jam, when he got wherever he wanted to go, with his bench squad getting the win over the team with the projected starters.

At the start of the second quarter against Atlanta, he racked up five assists in five minutes, buzzing here, there, and everywhere with magnet eyes for shooters. Generally speaking, when the Pacers call "push" for McConnell, which is their terminology for pistol or early offense that features a ball screen along the sideline from the two-guard for dribble action followed by a flare screen from the center for the two-guard, the only question is whether the parts moving around him will convert on the shot that he creates with his penetration. Otherwise, it's practically a given that he's going to touch the paint, triggering the 45-cut from the opposite wing while getting a step on the switch or staying lower than his defender. This is instant offense and very little assembly is required.

The same can't always be said of his teammates, with some of them often in need of the subsequent ball screen from the five in the corner, only for the end result to be an offensive reset.

Put simply, he breathes new life into actions as though he is being propelled by a gust of wind. In order for him to provide that maelstrom of turbulence along the baseline and under the rim though, someone else isn't going to be out there. The someone else isn't going to be Buddy Hield -- not in a contract year when the possibility looms that he might be traded, which is to say nothing of the gravity he provides. Meanwhile, it doesn't seem particularly prudent for the someone else to be Nembhard, either -- not as part of the team's future when his role already has the potential to shrink more than it should. Unless playing both of them together proves to be untenable (which it might!), that leaves the four-spot, with a choice between Nesmith, Nwora, and Walker.

Nesmith has made progress as the obvious frontrunner

Last season, Nesmith attempted 18 pull-up twos in 73 games played. During preseason, he made four pull-up twos, while attempting five. Some of that is opportunity. With Nembhard sidelined, he played more often at the three, which allowed him to stretch his legs from above the break, curling off-ball screens into one or two-dribble pull-ups in the lane. He isn't necessarily a quick-rip player, who can routinely beat his defender from a standstill, so stopping to pop with screen help means he doesn't have to be quite as dependent on being spoon fed behind the three-point line. That might change if he makes the shift back to the four, but he's looked steadier on his feet with the strength he added during the offseason, particularly when driving to his left -- which can be dicey.

Again, if he's playing at the four in lineups that include Hield with McConnell and/or Nembhard running point, he probably won't be the player blurring in front of the ball to attack from the top of the key, but it's noteworthy that he got all the way to the rim and actually left-handed the finish without losing the handle or attempting a hanging bank shot. To that point, look at the difference from last season, when rather than putting the ball on the floor as the screener with the defense in rotation, he has to evade his man with a shot-fake and then drives into a crowd.

That's where hitting the brakes for a pull-up two will be useful. There's still spots where he's noticeably right-hand dominant, which results in more east-west to his off-the-dribble forays than would be necessary if he simply ripped the ball to his left and attacked baseline. Just look at how his inside foot touches the free throw line on this possession, despite the fact that he starts his drive from below the break of the three-point line.

That said, he still managed to keep the ball moving through traffic, and he's shot 9-of-18 on jump-shots compared to 6-of-22 for Walker, who also went 8-of-40 at Summer League. Granted, Walker underwent a minor procedure to remove loose bodies in his right elbow shortly after returning from Las Vegas, but he never made a catch-and-shoot three off movement during preseason and when he attempts those types of shots he has a tendency to drift backward and to his left  -- almost like a sailboat catching a gentle breeze.

That's why a lot of his misses are short, which matters if he's going to be used more like a forward than a big. As he continues to sort out his shot, there needs to be a clear advantage to playing big in order to warrant giving him the nod over Nesmith. Defensively, Walker has sly hands, but there's been a number of times where he hasn't been ready to grab contested rebounds.

In that regard, this sequence isn't exactly a ringing endorsement for what would be gained in the immediate with him at the four as part of a more traditional lineup. In addition to missing the box out and bobbling the carom, he bites on the pump-fake and commits an unnecessary foul.

That's a rookie mistake.

Walker hasn't "flat out earned minutes"

To that point, Walker has looked a lot more like a rookie than Ben Sheppard, who arguably would be ready to play right now if not for the presence of McConnell, Hield, and Nembhard. In addition to making shots, Sheppard knows where to move when the ball moves, he crashes the offensive glass from the wing harder than anybody on the roster, and he's put together some impressive defensive stands squaring himself to the ball. Like Sheppard, Walker has shown the ability to make quick reads. Unlike Sheppard, however, he isn't always as likely to make the right read.

He can be a magnet for slipping out into space, even when an avenue is available to dart to the rim.

There's that gentle breeze, again! Meanwhile, he has a sneaky knack for keeper plays, but his sense of direction when operating out of hand-offs needs to point more often in the direction that Haliburton is clearly pointing. With the corner defender sliding over to tag the roll, this should be easy sledding for Bennedict Mathurin to turn the corner out of a hand-off at the wing. Instead, Walker doesn't even look that way and just ends up shuffling the ball back to Haliburton.

Some of his shot-selection, when he doesn't generate any separation and abruptly rises up from mid-range while leaning this way and that, has also bordered on wild. He can't be hoisting a long two with 12 seconds left on the shot-clock. This isn't going to be his role -- especially when Mathurin and Hield are sliding along the three-point line by his side.

At the other end, the Pacers have generally had him defending the corners, but when he's been involved in ball screen coverages and hand-offs, he's provided reason as to why he's largely been kept out of ball screen coverages and hand-offs. Remember, he mainly hedged at Houston, so switching out or chasing over at the four spot isn't what he's accustomed to. Moreover, some of the gambles that led to event creation at Summer League have been more damaging during preseason.

There's still plenty to like about Walker. He's nimble on his feet, he made a pass on the move with his left hand in his debut that Mathurin has yet to complete since being drafted, and he's compelling as a short-roller with his floater as a counter, at least when he agrees to roll and the opportunity allows. Plus, his shot is far from being broken. If he can put up a windbreak on his release and tamp down on some of his excesses, whether chasing the ball on defense or playing beyond his means on offense, the Pacers will have a player who can do a little bit of everything, both connecting and disrupting to their benefit. For now, he appears as though he will have to work his way toward that outcome, likely outside the rotation and perhaps with the G League, as the Pacers slowly reveal, in terms of record, what the endgame should be for the season.

On the one hand, Daniel Theis doesn't appear poised to be a regular contributor, likely in part because his age, 31, doesn't meet the timeline of the roster. On the other hand, however, McConnell could very well limit how much Nembhard handles for the second unit while also potentially squeezing Sheppard from the rotation, despite also being 31. Granted, Theis hasn't been as undeniable as McConnell, and Jalen Smith deserves credit for distinguishing himself from the crowd of back-up bigs with his production, but that dichotomy speaks to the overall balance that the Pacers are trying to strike, with Walker existing at the tipping point.

For that reason, his season, as far as with which team and how he develops, will be a microcosm of the season for the Pacers and where they go from here.