Mailbag, Part 1

All things Pacers

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper 

Off Panel (SKTCHD): I want to ask about Bennedict Mathurin. I know encouraging losses aren't really that encouraging, but from a passing and playmaking standpoint, as well as intermittent defensive moments, I thought Mathurin showed a lot of growth against the Celtics. My question is: Do you feel like you're seeing growth from him in meaningful, non-scoring only ways throughout the season?

There were definitely some flashes against Boston, especially by comparison to what was laid out in the "Doing the math on Bennedict Mathurin" section of my second Hatbox article. The playmaking stuff can be a bit hit or miss, but there's been a few positive examples lately of him demonstrating more nuanced skill to maintain advantage, rather than just racing to the rim. 

Prior to the All-Star Break, this possession, where he slowed himself down and worked to keep his defender on his back, stood out -- especially when considering who else was on the floor. It isn't often that he steers the pick-and-roll from the middle of the floor, let alone as part of a lineup with T.J. McConnell and George Hill available as ball-handlers. Granted, Daniel Theis isn't exactly a knockdown shooter (he's 2-of-11 from deep since returning to action), but the result of the pass doesn't matter near as much as the fact that the pass was actually made. Generally speaking, Mathurin doesn't always realize that a play being run for him doesn't guarantee that the shot should be for him. This is finding the best shot for the team.

As was this split-second decision against Boston, in which he pinged the ball to the corner from the air, as opposed to challenging Al Horford. 

This is what you want to see -- even if you can't see it in the box-score.

David Carr: Have you seen any specific areas of growth from Bennedict Mathurin on the defensive end?

So, this is going to sound strange, but I was actually encouraged by this possession where he picked up his fourth foul against old pal Malcolm Brogdon. Here's why. 

In addition to top-locking Derrick White from flying over the off-ball screen from Horford, he switched onto Brogdon and actually cut off the drive, necessitating a subsequent ball-screen. Then, he executed the scouting report. Brogdon typically doesn't shoot going to his left, so the book on him is to channel him toward his weak hand, which is what Mathurin does, up until the point when he gets whistled for the foul. Still, he executed the game-plan as intended without getting caught on his heels, as can be his tendency.  

He also deserves some kudos for this vertical contest, which left Tatum in a pickle after leaving his feet, allowing Haliburton to read the passing lane. 

I know, I know. There's a t-shirt for sale from the Basketball, She Wrote shop that says, "Jump Passes are Good Now." And they are! So long as the following caveats are met: 1) The player is Tyrese Haliburton, who is clearly an icon of basketball counterculture, or 2) The player jumps because they have an idea, not because they ran out of ideas. Turns out, neither of those apply to Tatum in this specific instance. So, I'm not a villain, (except when I am). 

Back to Mathurin, he had some defensive highlights in this game, which is rare aside from the occasional chasedown block. We'll have to see how he trends moving forward, but this is progress from some of the lapses he had against Miami.

Andrew: Was last night's game against the Celtics (2/23) the perfect possible outcome for the 2022-23 team? Pushing the best team in the league, record-wise, to the brink, getting great crunch-time reps for Tyrese, Myles showing out, and still getting the L for Wembanyama?

Competitive losing isn't so bad, right? If there were any quibbles or red flags, it would be what's happening with the frontcourt rotation, as well as some of the problem-solving with regard to how aggressive teams are being in hunting Tyrese.

As was laid out in the third Hatbox article, it got to the point against Utah that the Pacers were deliberately pre-switching with Buddy Hield on the screen approach in order to keep Tyrese out of the action. On Friday, Marcus Smart was going at him in the second half, which is what precipitated some of the flexing and other antics. By the fourth quarter, they went to hedge-and-recover in order to keep Mathurin, of all defenders, on Jayson Tatum. Plus, don't let the missed layup fool you, this "show" did very little to prevent Tatum from turning the corner. 

As such, regardless of the outcome of these games, the Pacers may need to do some tinkering to figure out what tinkering might be necessary in the offseason. Can they get better at hedge-and-recover with the current personnel? Will they need to go switch-to-blitz when teams get the switch they want against Tyrese? Do the Pacers have enough size on back-side rotations to plausibly rotate out of traps? Those are questions they need to try to answer over the last 20+ games. 

Justin Winiger: Why are we still playing vets? Why isn’t Jalen Smith in the rotation?

Ahh, yes. As was lightly hinted at in my prior answer as well as the second Hatbox, it definitely seems a bit questionable that Smith and Jackson are being supplanted by Theis on certain nights in a carousel-like rotation, when the team has lost 17 of their last 21 games. Of course, some of this goes back to last summer, when Smith was christened as the starting power forward, despite the fact that he doesn't do many, if any, power forward-like things. But, what's done is done. They have four players on the roster who it seems as though they view as fives on a team that is no longer playing with two bigs on the floor, except in rare spot minutes. 

So, perhaps, the better question to ask is what the upside is to playing Theis? 

In that regard, maybe it has less to do with Theis and optimizing winning and more to do with optimizing the other players on the floor. For example, consider this possession against Boston and notice how he pitches the ball ahead and then makes a slight lateral adjustment to snag Brogdon as Mathurin's defender.

That, in turn, allows Mathurin to showcase some of the deceleration he's been toying with as the ball-handler, slowing down with more craft to draw contact.

Now, spot the difference from earlier in the season when he zooms out of the corner into a hand-off from Smith, with his defender, instead, staying (literally) within arm's reach all the way to the rim. 

In effect, that's the trade-off. Which is more valuable, minutes for Jackson and Smith, which may not be as beneficial for Mathurin? Or, cleaner on-ball reps for Mathurin, with Theis taking minutes from Jackson and Smith? It's a tough decision made tougher by decisions that were made last summer -- when the team signed Smith, apparently, without foreseeing that he would need to play at a position in which they were already fully stocked. 

Drew: You wrote about Stix and Myles matching poorly on offense during a recent game. I can’t imagine Stix, Theis, and IJax all being Pacers at this time next year. If only two of them are Pacers at the end of next year, who wins the zero sum minutes played game they have ongoing?

Yes, as I wrote from that game against the Wizards, teams generally defend Turner with fours when he plays alongside Smith, which either marginalizes the former in the offense or results in the pick-and-roll being cluttered by the opposing team's five. The same would also likely happen with Jackson. But, at least he can be stashed in the dunker's spot and generally has more roll-gravity to potentially draw tags.

To this point, Jackson still has a tendency to take bad angles in drop and wrong steps on switches. If he plays with Turner, he could be used as weak-side roamer, blocking shots while rotating to the rim. Granted, the Pacers have used him in that role for stretches this season, whether defending Dejounte Murray, Killian Hayes, or Cedi Osman, but it hasn't happened with Turner on the floor to cover for some of his, let's say, imperfect closeouts. So far, those two have only played 13 minutes together, which really brings into question what it would take for that pairing to be given serious consideration, now or in the future. 

If Theis continues to get the nod at back-up five and stays healthy, maybe he will play well enough to drum up some interest from other teams? Whatever the case, it seems as though what just happened with Goga Bitadze should be more of a cautionary tale, as far as drafting Jackson only for him to be a third-string center.

Smith has contributed valuable minutes recently against Chicago, scramming out mismatches in a timely fashion, while also blocking every shot in sight against Orlando. From the perspective of being in the right spot, he's ahead of Jackson defensively, and Theis is ahead offensively. Jackson is going to require more patience, but his ground coverage and occasional passing flashes continue to tantalize. They also targeted him in the draft. It might depend on what the summer holds. If it looks as though they are trying to be a playoff team next season, then Theis and Smith. If not, then Smith and Jackson, with the latter hopefully getting some reps alongside Turner in order to avoid suffering a similar fate as Goga.

Moxy Doxy: Why has Oshae once again disappeared from the rotation? He hasn't been able to maximize his minutes and a lot of it looks like his subpar shooting, but on a team that is bereft of his type of length and athleticism, are there actually situations where we should look at putting him in over Nwora or Nembhard, both players with even WORSE TS% than Oshae this season?

 The short answer to this question, given that Brissett is going to be an unrestricted free agent this summer, probably is that Nembhard and Nwora are more likely to be on the team next season. Brissett is a very resourceful and opportunistic player in terms of cutting and keeping possessions alive; however, as you mentioned, he's shot 11-of-40 (27%) from deep since the start of January. Over the last eight games, he's only played in three and Chris Duarte recorded DNPs in two of those.

As such, my guess is that minutes for Brissett would come at the expense of Duarte -- not Nembhard, who is superior to both as a defender and playmaker. Either way, it doesn't really make sense for the long-term trajectory of the team to cut their minutes.

Nwora, meanwhile, was rough in the game against Chicago, but it's important to remember how the Pacers have changed on defense this season. Nesmith was defending Vucevic for large portions of that game, while taking on increased minutes. Brissett's strengths on defense exist more so as a help-defender, sliding in and out from the three-point line, rather than defending the post or switching out to the ball. That's what was, and often is, needed at the four-spot in this scheme.

Tim Ruehr: How do you think Jordan Nwora fits on the team? Non basketball question: What is your favorite unconventional burger topping?

It's still too early to say. As I wrote in the third Hatbox, I was surprised by some of his defensive chemistry with George Hill in his debut against Utah, but it was also evident that he was still learning the offense, which is understandable. The opposite was the case versus Orlando on Saturday. This is inexplicable, and it appears as though Ronald Nored agrees. Why is Nwora the player pressuring the inbound pass and picking up Cole Anthony full-court? What good is going to come of this? Narrator: No good would come of this, especially when considering the addition of the soft-switch from the vicinity of the logo. 

He also got spun out badly on some blow-by drives from Paolo Banchero and Bol Bol. Offensively, though, he found a groove, particularly in ways other than shooting. He was resourceful in cutting around penetration, whether diving from the corner, drifting into the corner, or collapsing the weak-side zone, and he got the memo on crashing the glass from the wing, even converting a few putbacks. Some of his drives since the trade have been a bit ghastly and his passing can be an adventure, wavering between threading the needle to whatever that lob was to Jalen, but there were contributions from this game that weren't dependent only on shot-making. 

In theory, if he can make threes at a better clip than Smith or Brissett and do some of the help switching when guys get beat on the perimeter, then he should at least be useful in being an option to potentially prevent some of the frontcourt cross-matching, while also finding his own usage. Oh and one last thing, does anyone know if he played volleyball at some point in his life, because my guy knows how to fall. This was surprising!

As for burgers, hmm... I suppose it depends on what you define as unconventional. If we're talking anything that isn't ketchup, mustard, pickle, tomato, lettuce, or cheese, than I guess I'll go with grilled pineapple and barbeque sauce. And yes, I also like pineapple on pizza. See, I am a villain! Bwahahahahaha!

Chris Ebersole: I'm curious as to your thoughts on Jordan Nwora. Do you see anything specific in his game (beyond fitting a position of need) that could give him long-term potential with the team?

Again, I want to give this more time. Assuming this team is still in search of a long-term answer at the starting four spot, which the O.G. Anunoby rumors would suggest that they are (as they should be), then I'm somewhat interested to find out where his minutes will come from if Aaron Nesmith slides back to the bench. That's a question for another day, though. As for his general fit besides that of being a four, energy finds the ball. Haliburton and McConnell both reward energy. Nwora has a keen sense for finding cracks in the defense, while also being a better shooter in theory than Brissett. Both of those things mesh with playing flow-game.  

Ti Windisch: Using former Pacers only, what would the ideal power forward on this Pacers team look like going forward? Feel free to mix and match skillsets from multiple players if you’d like.

The Pacers rank dead-last in opponent offensive rebounding rate. Some of that is a product of their defensive scheme, in which they are oftentimes in rotation as a result of pinching in at the nail and putting themselves in rotation with double-teams and traps. But, part of the reason they pinch in toward the nail and put themselves in rotation with double-teams and traps is because they don't have the length to stay in front or handle bigger wings. So, ideally, the four-man would be able to inhale rebounds; however, there might also be a realm where, if the four-man alleviates some of the need for resorting to more aggressive coverages, the rebounding might improve somewhat organically. 

Meanwhile, as has been mentioned many times throughout this mailbag, this player also needs to be credible enough from deep that teams won't be as willing to check Turner with fours. That said, Boston eventually resorted to guarding him with Tatum, and that had very little to do with Nesmith, as it was more so about the whole thing where they got more than they bargained for with him scoring 40 points. 

Defensively, it remains to be seen whether the Pacers would continue to use Turner as they are if they had more size. Right now, he either brazenly ignores centers who are non-shooting threats or gets assigned to low-usage wings, so he can stay low around the basket. Again, maybe, if they were better able to contain against bigger wings, he would revert to swallowing up pick-and-rolls. Is this the vision or a fix? 

Anyway, this is my very long-winded way of saying that the ideal power forward on this Pacers team would rebound like Dale Davis, have the elasticity to guard out on the perimeter and defend the post like Thaddeus Young (bonus points if the Pacers can also co-opt the passing chops he's demonstrated since leaving the Pacers), and be as capable of stretching the floor and pulling up as Danny Granger, if he hadn't played before his time. 

That guy should be easy to find, right? 

Lincoln Andersen: As far as questions, something I’m really interested in is what ways, if any, Benn has improved throughout the year on both ends. Another question is what specific ways has Hali and the new system unlocked Myles as a roll threat in ways we haven't really seen in his Pacers tenure yet?

I'll refer you to my prior answers on Mathurin. As for Myles, there's a lot of factors at play there, beginning with the fact that he's actually rolling. Prior to this season, he had never rolled on more than 50 percent of the screens that he used. There's a case to be made that opposites make for better pick-and-roll partners. If the ball-handler prefers to survey, then the preferred screener will be a roller. If the ball-handler punches the ball to the rim, the screener will ideally be a shooter. Haliburton more so falls into the former category, so it was reasonable to think that either he or Turner would need to adjust, with the latter being the more obvious choice. 

And he has, which is saying something. Think back to when he was starting at solo five at the bubble campus in Orlando. At times, he would really mangle deciding whether to roll or pop. For example, why move toward the defense, here, only to move away, when the initial coverage is begging him to step-out to three?

Of course, this brings up an interesting question about player development and coaching. Beyond making better reads, either McMillan needed to design the offense with higher screens so that Turner’s footwork pattern would still allow him to stay outside the three-point line when he steps into his shot, or Turner needed to change his routine and recognize where he is on the floor to make sure his feet ended up outside the three-point line. Put simply, this was doing very little for the functional spacing of the team.

But, this is about rolling. As such, look at how everything works together for his good on this opening possession against the Pelicans. With Buddy Hield flying off a flare screen at the same time as Andrew Nembhard makes an exit for the corner, every action spawns another action. Granted, Hield probably could've curled to the rim with a lead on C.J. McCollum, but bringing him back toward the ball draws Valanciunas out of the paint. Meanwhile, Nembhard exchanges places with Smith, effectively screening the screener while occupying the low-man. 

That means the only player that Turner has to contend with is a back-pedaling Valanciunas, who he dislodges with a bump to carve out space at the rim. 

That's new! Notably, none of that was dependent on Haliburton, but he's also clearly benefited from playing with Haliburton because … well, who wouldn't? As a screener, Turner can at times exist in a strange in-between zone where he is neither hitting and holding nor slipping; however, in a way, just lunging toward the ball (and doing so before the on-ball defender even arrives at the scene) can enhance his ability to speed roll. After all, what exactly are bigs who are playing at or above the level against Haliburton supposed to do when they're caught between the dive and stepping out to hedge? 

Then, of course, there's also Haliburton's passing wizardry. When defenses ice the pick-and-roll, as Lillard is doing here with his back to the screener in an attempt to push the action toward the sideline, Haliburton and Turner attack the coverage by staying on a line with each other. In this scenario, the burden is on Haliburton to manipulate the dropping big in a 2-on-1 scenario, and that's exactly what he does, freezing the defense with a crafty cut dribble before delivering the pocket pass.

In a way, that's an effective summary. Turner is rolling in tandem with the ball. Hield and Nembhard are exchanging spots to distort the tag. And Haliburton is bringing the extra oomf. All of that, in combination, has made the game easier for Turner, who has also made the game easier for himself. Oh yeah, and jump passes forever!

(sorry, this will be the last shameless plug)

Nick Boorzian: Given the growth we’ve seen from Turner this season, and the fact that he feels like he can grow further (I agree), what would you need to see from Turner, or from the situation around him, in order for him to be an All-Star next year? Bonus question: is there another Pacer who has a better chance to be the 2nd All-Star other than Turner? (Hali repeating of course)

At the risk of being rudimentary, the simple answer might be winning. After doing a cursory rundown of the All-Star rosters from the last five seasons, every team that had a pair of teammates make the cut was in playoff position as a top-six seed entering the All-Star Break. As for Turner, he continues to do things at the five this season that he wasn't doing when he last had that same role. In addition to moving toward the basket and being more physical, he's eliminated a lot of the autopilot post moves and is actually feeling the defense. With all due respect to him making eight threes against Boston, some of which were of the movement or one-dribble variety, this was arguably his most impressive feat.

Scoring over Marcus Smart in the post with a driving floating jump-shot? Can't say I saw that coming.

As was discussed earlier this week, his driving game has also started to become really compelling, too. That said, he's mainly a complementary scorer at this point. Generally speaking, he's what teams are willing to give up. So, what happens when they actually try to take him away? Miami, for example, has been more aggressive than most teams in testing the limits of his playmaking. 

If he keeps doing what he's doing, that will happen more often. But, what he's currently doing has definitely been one of the bright spots of the season, even during this current stretch of losing. As to your other question, Kevin Durant switching conferences clears up a frontcourt spot from this season, and there weren't a lot of obvious snubs, aside from Jimmy Butler. Still, if the Pacers are winning at the level of teams that are represented by two players, it seems like that will either be because of Mathurin stepping up his game or the result of someone else they sign or select in the draft. So, I might take the field, even though I have been very impressed by the way that Turner has played of late.

Kyle Taylor: I'm hyped for this blog! Some questions about Tyrese: In 9 games this month, Ty has led the team in FGA only twice. He's finished 3rd or "worse" in FGA 5 times. His FGA per game have been lower in Jan/Feb than in the months preceding them. His usage has improved vs. last year but December's 25% usage rate remains a bit of an outlier for the season. The team's pace with him on the floor this month is slower than in any prior month. And his net rating this month (-7.1) is way below the team overall (-2.8) per NBA stats. What gives? Are you concerned he came back too soon from injury? Maybe a two-steps-forward-one-step-back situation? What about his play (if anything) genuinely concerns you vs. what level of regression is not a big deal? And do you have any big picture concerns about the usage and FGA increases from the first part of the year (Oct-Dec) not "sticking" so far in calendar year 2023?

I've missed you, Kyle! For everyone who doesn't know, I could always count on Kyle to email me with questions, featuring plenty of numbers to chew on, for my now defunct podcast. It's good to have him, as well as the rest of you, back in my inbox. 

Ok, so, I'm not a doctor. I won't comment on how his body is feeling or whether he came back too soon. From a basketball perspective, a trend that has started to develop against him is blitzing isolations. Sacramento did this late in the fourth quarter whenever Sabonis was on an island. Miami converged to avoid stranding Tyler Herro. And the Celtics also mixed in some selective traps, even at the risk of abandoning Hield. Generally speaking, Haliburton is still wired to be pass-first, but this is definitely contributing to why his shot-volume has dipped of late. 

As to my concern level, Hield makes this shot, right? In the long run, he'll need to grow to learn how to fight off a double, either to maintain single coverage or get the ball back (like he does with his his step-back give-and-go move against switches), but there are worse things than perhaps being too trusting of teammates.

I won't rehash what was already written about the defense, as far as his uptick in possessions hunted, but that's the louder warning bell-- in my opinion. Over the span of time you are referencing, the Pacers have surrendered a team-worst 126 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor. That's not all on him (obviously), but it's … uh... not great. 

Ed Blayney: Should the Pacers try to make the play-in? Or should they keep on their current trajectory and improve their lottery odds?

The Pacers are 4-17 over their last 21 games and 3-7 since Tyrese Haliburton returned from injury. Even while "trying" to make the play-in, they are 2.5 games back of 10th-place, although with a fairly soft remaining strength of schedule (sixth-easiest). In essence, my short answer is that they might just naturally remain on their current trajectory without need of shenanigans. There's probably some value in going up against exaggerated game-plans and seeing how Haliburton and Mathurin respond in a postseason-like environment, but they're the future and that future shouldn't be short-changed for short-term goals.

Nick Baumer: What do the Pacers need to add to their roster to make them a NBA championship contender? 

Victor. Wembanyama. 

(This concludes the Pacers-specific portion of the mailbag. There will be more to come with regard to the blog, watching basketball, and more.)