This is My Hatbox, Part 1

Getting reacquainted with each other and the Pacers

By: Caitlin Cooper I @C2_Cooper

As long-time listeners of my now defunct podcast might recall, I’m a big fan of Gilmore Girls. Actually, let me rephrase that. I’m not exactly sure how much my fandom of Gilmore Girls is connected to the show, in and of itself, as much as my fond memories of watching episodes of the show in first run. During the seventh and final season (which I don’t consider to be canon, by the way!), my sister got engaged and was preparing for her wedding at the same time as I was finishing high school. She was and is my best friend. We knew nothing was going to change that (“we would always be sisters,” as some cheesy greeting card somewhere probably says), but we weren’t going to be sharing a bedroom or living at home together anymore and I was having trouble letting that go. So, to help ease the transition, we very wholesomely set aside time every week to turn on the CW and enjoy each other’s company while staying up to date with whatever zaniness was about to go down in Stars Hollow.

Now, many years and several re-watches later, my life is at yet another cross-roads, as I’ve suddenly found myself domain-less in the wake of Vox Media’s decision to no longer support Indy Cornrows. Last time, I knew my sister would still only be a phone call or text away. This time, I’ve been less sure about the best way to go about staying in touch with my friend – otherwise known as writing. Or, if I even should (yeah… there’s a lot going on in my head right now). Naturally, while contemplating all types of important life decisions and questioning how or whether to reconnect with you, my readers, my mind keeps wandering back to Gilmore Girls. Or rather, one specific episode of Gilmore Girls, in which, after going through an extended period of estrangement, Lorelai reveals that she saved notes in a hatbox of things she wanted to tell Rory once they made up following her decision to quit Yale.

Well friends, neither of us quit Yale (I don’t think?), but we’ve been separated through no fault of our own and this is my hatbox. Even while navigating this rocky road, I’ve still been watching all the Pacers games, saving notes of things I want to tell you. If you’re interested, come basketball with me.

Pacers 131, Bucks 141 – Fun with 45 cuts

The Pacers gave up 85 points in the first half of this game and Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 41 on the night while converting 13 of his 16 made field goals inside the restricted area. To summarize, Indiana’s best coverage against him was sending him to the line, where he only made seven of his 18 free throw attempts. Seriously though, does anyone actually want to rehash what happened at that end of the floor? This seems like a very sad and unceremonious way to introduce, “Basketball, She Wrote – A blog about the basketball played by the Indiana Pacers.” Perhaps we should get some feedback from Lloyd Pierce and make our determination based on his reaction to whatever this was supposed to be, with the team starting out in 2-3 zone and then, maybe, matching up on the high-post flash (they do this sometimes!) before surrendering a wide open basket cut for an easy two.

Judging by the way Pierce leans back in his chair, throws up his hands, and rubs his head, it seems as though he agrees that we should throw this slip of paper back in the box and choose something else.

Ahh, yes, here we go. This is much better and the exact amount of nerdy that you should come to expect from this publication. With a 45-cut preceding a hand-off at the wing, this is a common action that lots of teams run as a means to instill continuity and flow into the offense when the ball changes sides of the floor. Watch Buddy Hield, though. After making the initial cut, notice how he stays live, circling back and flying off a pindown from Myles Turner.

In many cases, defenders have a tendency to relax with their back to the ball on these types of cuts, so the opportunity is there to create separation with misdirection before launching around the subsequent screen. That particular component isn’t something the Pacers normally incorporate; however, it was brought up as a possibility last season when I wrote a blog at my former website about what they could learn from the playoffs. At the time, the Jazz were executing similar choreography, only with Jordan Clarkson reversing course, a la Hield, to set a back-screen for Rudy Gobert as the hand-off operator, either drawing late help or potentially putting the opposing guard in the position to defend against vertical pop in the event of a switch.

Turns out, that element of nuance might actually make even more sense now, given that Turner has already converted more dunks in 50 games played (57) than in his prior two seasons combined (48). Plus, that’s not the only way that 45 cuts could be of benefit to Turner. Check out this possession from the third quarter. During middle pick-and-roll, when the ball is moving toward the single side (i.e. the side of the floor where only one player is standing), the Pacers could either attack the stunt or create space by having the player at the wing cut early at the point of the pop, like so.

Then, if Grayson Allen stunts toward Turner, Hield would either be open cutting to the basket, or Wesley Matthews would have to slide over to tag him, potentially freeing up the extra pass to Chris Duarte in the corner. Conversely, the more likely outcome is that Allen would follow Hield, removing the help, while providing Turner with more breathing room to shoot.

Generally speaking, offense wasn’t exactly the problem in this particular contest, but the presence of drop coverage nevertheless illuminates an area where it seems as though the Pacers might be leaving some meat on the bone. To that point, this was also a thing against the Cavs, where if Mathurin had cut early at the point of the pop, Dean Wade likely wouldn’t have been in position to stunt at Turner, and if he did, Mathurin would’ve been open for the potential hi-low pass slashing to the rim.

Of course, Turner could also simply swing the ball to Mathurin at the wing in this situation, but an underrated advantage to cutting and occupying the stunt is that Wade likely wouldn’t be in position to leak-out on the contest from the top of the key. Overall, while there’s more to delve into as far as the relationship between transition defense and cutting from the wing (wink wink nudge nudge), what this introduction should reveal is that even in lopsided losses that are dependent on playing hack-a to create the illusion of closeness, there are small edges to be found and details worth magnifying that can be expounded into broader points about this team, as well as the game at-large – if you’ll let me.

Pacers 100, Grizzlies 112 – The short and the not-so long of it

Over the 10 games in which Tyrese Haliburton was sidelined due to injury, the Pacers got worse on defense, in part, because they got worse on offense. During that stretch, they ranked 29th in turnover rate (down from 20th), 30th in effective field goal percentage (down from 16th), and 26th in points allowed per 100 possessions (down from 20th). Turns out, taking care of the ball and making shots is helpful to manufacturing stops, who knew? That said, the slide on that end of the floor (which has continued even with Haliburton back in the lineup) can’t all be blamed on Haliburton’s absence. After all, while he certainly has a sixth-sense for sticking his arms in passing lanes, few would describe him as a stout defender. Just ask the Cavs, who repeatedly hunted him on defense after halftime of the loss on February 5, with his man, Isaac Okoro, scoring 11 of Cleveland’s 36 third-quarter points, while being used as the screener and (admittedly) shooting the ball better than expected.

Granted, some of the slippage might be because Andrew Nembhard, as one of Indiana’s key perimeter defenders, was battling illness and also started to show some signs of fatigue (i.e. remember what happened against Jrue Holiday on MLK Day?), but it also seems like teams have become more keen in attacking the hacks that have made playing four guards at once somewhat feasible.

To that point, while much has been made about Myles Turner’s change in role on offense, he has also been used quite differently this season on defense, more often either brazenly ignoring the opposing team’s five-man or being assigned to low-usage wings. In either case, whether dropping him to the rim or unleashing him to roam along the baseline, the general aim is to keep his size around the basket as much as possible to act as cover for what they surrender in size everywhere else.

To counter, teams have begun to find unique ways to draw him out of the paint. For instance, this isn’t something you see every day, but notice how, with Turner assigned to Josh Giddey, Oklahoma City purposefully posted a guard against a center, leaving the basket naked – at least as it pertains to viable weak-side rim protection – against the subsequent split action.

Meanwhile, in Denver, the Nuggets weaponized the cross-match in reverse, deploying Zeke Naji, at center, as the second screener in a stagger, so that Bennedict Mathurin would be responsible for protecting against the curl or the open three, like a big. To be fair, it’s worth asking why the Pacers, even with T.J. McConnell locking-and-trailing the cutter, didn’t chase over and switch this action. Or why, if Turner is going to be assigned to Aaron Gordon for the purpose of sagging off, he wasn’t really sagging off. Nevertheless, Mathurin is getting picked on while also being put in unfamiliar territory -- both of which have started to become recurrent themes, including among players other than Mathurin, in recent weeks.

Anyway, the point of this section is to highlight something meaningful that happened against the Memphis Grizzlies and what happened against the Memphis Grizzlies on the final possession before halftime was meaningful in that it brings all of this, as far as where the short-limbed lineups are coming up short, into focus. Per usual, Turner is switching away from the ball to stay low while, at the same time, Buddy Hield is being screened into the action. In order to protect against the mismatch, Mathurin pinches in at the nail and prepares to trap so as to prevent Ja Morant from going to his preferred left.

The only problem is… well, there are a lot of problems. Corralling Ja is like trying to catch a rabbit – and that’s hard to do. But, if the point of forcing the ball out of his hands is to force someone else to beat them, then this was way too easy. Presumably, the idea behind keeping Turner on standby and out of ball screen coverages by assigning him to players such as Matisse Thybulle, Deni Avdija, Bobby Portis, Patrick Williams, and the list goes on, is to ensure that he’s present to protect against the excesses of scrambling, with him tagging and helping against cutters. Instead, the opposite ends up being the case.

To their credit, there are instances where the Pacers can really get flying around, running multiple shooters off the line on the same possession; however, for a team that already labors to finish stops with rebounds, ranking dead last in opponent offensive rebounding rate, the gaps and mismatches that are often a byproduct of being put into heavy rotation can leave them even more vulnerable on the glass.

All of which is to say that, while some of this is clearly just a matter of execution, it also seems as though teams are slowly but surely finding means by which to expose the lengths the Pacers have to go through to make up for their lack of length.

Pacers 111, Lakers 112 – To screen or not to screen?

As most probably remember, much of the discussion following this game centered around the foul disparity in the fourth quarter, in which the Lakers attempted 16 free throws compared to zero for the Pacers. That’s quite lopsided, to be sure. But, the Lakers also attempted 10 shots in the restricted area compared to three for the Pacers, which *might* explain some of that lopsidedness. Sure, it’s possible some calls were missed. But, here’s the thing: searching for those potential missed calls would require searching for all the other potential missed calls and being a ref analyst sounds as miserable as relying on perfect officiating to win games. So, instead, we’re just going to focus on what else the Pacers could’ve done to overcome those missed calls – assuming there were any (sorry, not interested in scouring the last two-minute report)– if that’s ok?

In that regard, think back to the final possession on offense. With all due respect to Haliburton, who earned plenty of respect and then some when the team won eight of 10 games prior to his injury thanks in large part to the way he transformed himself into the closer the Pacers were missing last season, the process, here, is a bit puzzling, to say the least. According to Synergy, the Pacers rank 26th in isolation frequency. For the most part, they don’t waste time spinning their tires against switches in isolation – much less against unfavorable switches. Rather, they either aim to get to the next action; normally, with Buddy Hield ghosting the switch to reignite the offense. Or, they at least pair the isolation with some other action to occupy the help defense. That’s why it’s so strange that he not only waved off the ghost screen from Hield, but also did so for the purpose of going at Anthony Davis – of all defenders.

Although Haliburton didn’t get blocked into oblivion, this was also a thing during the first half of Sunday’s loss to the Cavs, in which he could once again be seen declining the ghost screen from Buddy to go at Jarrett Allen, just as he also did in the team’s prior loss to the Cavs. Of course, in the case of the most recent possession, at least he’s holding the attention of Allen on the perimeter, which allows Nembhard to attack out of the swing pass, despite the unpleasant result.

In Haliburton’s defense, with the clock winding down, maybe he anticipated the possibility of a trap, leading him to prefer space over the subsequent screen? Given that Sacramento went switch-to-blitz, sending an extra defender to Haliburton anytime old friend Domantas Sabonis was left alone in space during crunch-time, there might be some merit to that theory – especially since the Pacers had to rely on their defense to hold on in that game, as they were held scoreless over the final 2:55 of play.

Even so, why not call for a screen from literally anyone else who wasn’t being defended by Davis and then try to win the foot race to the rim against that guy? The blueprint already exists for this. Think back to this possession against the Sixers, while trying to forget what necessitated and happened during OT.

In addition to targeting the preferable, soft switch against James Harden, notice how the flare screen from Turner provides multiple options, as the center is either kept honest or risks giving up the dive, like so.

Those are the types of plays, when Haliburton processes the dominoes of the defense in a split-second, where he and the Pacers have thrived, turning the tide from what happened in that mid-December loss to the Knicks, which need not wash back to shore, as was the case versus the Lakers.

Pacers 107, Kings 104 –  Buddy Hield, winging it

After leading by as many as 19 points, the Pacers held on by the skin of their teeth – or, perhaps more aptly, the tips of their fingers – against the Kings to snap their four-game losing streak. This is extremely reductive, but the Pacers won by three and Buddy Hield tallied four points off tip-ins, marking a season-high. Quietly, although the result may not always be points, he’s been very aggressive crashing the glass from the wings this season, as well as last. Of course, with four Kings standing under the basket, there isn’t much risk of penalty if he comes up empty.

But, what about longer ricochets? Or, when there isn’t a clear numbers advantage headed the other way as a safety net? For the season, the Pacers have grabbed 24.4 percent of their own missed threes, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Keep in mind, they are somehow managing to achieve that mark while attempting to make do with a shrunken version of Toronto’s since-departed “Vision 6-9” – only its “Vision 6-5,” with the starting lineup, and some reserve groupings, by and large (small?) composed of four guards and a center. In fact, since Aaron Nesmith was inserted into the first unit at the four-spot on December 12 against the Miami Heat, the Pacers have still pulled down 22.5 percent of their own missed threes, which only drops them to 13th over that span.

There has to be some strategy behind this, right?

At times, throughout the entirety of the season, there have been instances where continuing a cut from the wing on errant threes has actually worked to fortify their transition defense, as it forces the opposition to pack-in, effectively morphing the two ends of the floor into one. See, remember this topic from the prior section on the game against the Bucks? Hield is cutting on the shot instead of the pop, but… it works!

There are other examples, though, such as from the game following the win over the Kings, where Hield swings and misses, potentially causing the team to pay a fast price in opponent fast-break points.

Of course, a key distinguishing feature in this instance is that Hield is diving from the top of the key with Theis launching from the wing. On the prior possession, as was the case in the examples from the earlier section, Smith and/or Turner are popping to the top of the key with Hield crashing from the wing, which means the big is in position to be the first player back – acting as somewhat of a security blanket.

Even so, the variability doesn’t only apply to Hield, nor is the impact exclusive to what gets logged as fast-break points, which only includes those which are scored in fewer than eight seconds after the change of possession, eliminating free throws as well as transition opportunities that may extend beyond that specified range.

Still, the Pacers are currently giving up more opponent fast-break points per 100 possessions (14.4) than they are scoring in second-chance points per 100 possessions (13.5). Meanwhile, they also rank 23rd  in points allowed per 100 transition plays, per Cleaning the Glass. As such, it would be interesting to know what the in-house metrics say on this matter. I’m not above hand-tracking such things, but that might be a little tedious even for me. We’ll have to see what summer has in store.