New script: President Sanders
Added 2024-08-28 02:45:18 +0000 UTCWhat if Bernie won?
No man has had more influence on American politics in the last 10 years, and not won the presidency, than Bernie Sanders. Senator Sanders of Vermont galvanized the progressive movement in the United States, popularizing policies that, today, define the Democratic Party and motivate everyone in my generation. And he did that while losing the Democratic primary for president twice.
But what if he didn’t lose? What if Sanders won the primary—and the presidency?
Well this is What Why How, and that’s what the video’s about. If you like this sort of content don’t forget to subscribe and support the channel on Patreon, where you’ll get early previews.
Let’s go over some basics really quickly. Senator Sanders, a self-described democratic socialist believes in all sorts of progressive policies, like Medicare for all and free public college. You’ve heard his spiel by now. Despite technically being an independent, he ran in the 2016 Democratic primary and lost to Hillary, who lost to Trump. He ran again in 2020, but lost when a whole bunch of liberals dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden. Joe Biden went on to win the presidency and implement all sorts of policies that, ironically, Sanders approves.
But what if it was Bernie at the Resolute Desk?
Before we get ahead of ourselves, let’s rewind to 2016.
Even though Sanders did pretty well in the primary against Clinton, this was not Bernie’s time to shine; he had a better chance in 2020. The Democratic National Committee was biased against him, and in any case even if Sanders did narrowly beat Trump, he’d struggle with a Congress unready for his proposals or, even worse, held by Republicans. After 4 years of no progress, he’d get crushed in 2020 by some Republican, and that would be a disappointing video, wouldn’t it?
Instead, let’s tweak 1 thing about the 2016 elections.
One key Senate race nobody talks about was Nevada. Attorney General Catherine Cortez Masto won the race against Congressman Joe Heck by only a few points, while tens of thousands of people voted for independents.
https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2016&fips=32&f=0&off=3&elect=0&class=3
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_Senate_election_in_Nevada,_2016
If fewer independents ran, or if Donald Trump marshalled greater campaign resources to Joe Heck, then the Republicans might’ve won Nevada.
Ok, so why did I make this change?
Let’s fast forward to the first few months of the Trump presidency. If you remember, that time was defined by the Republicans’ chaotic attempts to repeal Obamacare. After a whole bunch of struggle, the House passed its version, while GOP leaders in the Senate pulled together the Health Care Freedom Act. Its key point was to get rid of Obamacare’s penalties for being uninsured [the individual mandate] and cut standards for insurance from employers [employer mandate].
Even Republican Senators were wary of their bill. That’s because, without penalties, healthy people could just wait until they were sick to get insurance, basically draining the whole health insurance system dry. According to the Congressional Budget Office, this would’ve boosted the number of uninsured people by millions and the premiums people pay by a whole bunch too.
https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/115th-congress-2017-2018/costestimate/s.a.667.pdf
So, it wasn’t a good bill. Republicans knew it wasn’t a good bill, but they hoped that by passing it in the Senate, they could then negotiate with the House through the reconciliation process and pass something “better.”
Except, John McCain, recently diagnosed with brain cancer and freshly recovered from surgery, voted against the bill—so, Obamacare is still around today.
But if Senator John Heck was there, the bill would have an extra vote—enough to pass the Senate. The House and the Senate then negotiate their differences and in the end Republicans get their bill passed. Obamacare is gutted.
Ok, so what next? How would history go differently?
Well, as the Congressional Budget Office predicted, the number of people on insurance plummets by about 20 million over the next few years. Oh and the bill also cuts stimulus money for health services, deleting jobs in that sector. Good thing there’s not a major pandemic on the horizon.
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/03/obamacare-uninsured-white-house-236019
On February 19, 2019, Bernie Sanders announces he’s running for president again. With the health insurance system on fire, his plan to expand government Medicare to cover everyone has the fuel it needs to become the #1 issue of the campaign. Other Democratic candidates also support the plan though, including Elizabeth Warren, Bernie’s main rival in the left-wing of the party.
https://www.healthaffairs.org/content/forefront/unpacking-house-medicare-for-all-bill
Former VP Joe Biden, at the head of the pack, does not support Medicare for All. Biden polls ahead of the other candidates up until states start voting in February 2020. Sanders narrowly beats Buttigieg in Iowa and New Hampshire, then dominates in Nevada, cementing himself as the front runner. Elizabeth Warren, seeing the writing on the wall, drops out and endorses Bernie. While Biden barely survives by winning South Carolina, come Super Tuesday, Sanders wins the majority of the delegates. Biden’s campaign crumbles just as the Covid-19 pandemic washes across the United States.
You remember it—skyrocketing death tolls, shutdowns, and shuttered businesses. But with Obamacare gutted, more people who survive are saddled with immense debt from treatment.
And in May, riots and protests erupt across the country over the murder of George Floyd.
In August, at the virtual DNC, Sanders accepts the nomination and gives his usual stump speech. He also meets with moderates and makes sure they’re on board with his campaign. For Vice President, he selects none other than Kamala Harris, which helps his weaker numbers among African Americans and women. Michael Bloomberg, the centrist billionaire, almost runs a third party campaign against Sanders but he’s talked out of it by his friends in the party.
Entering into the general election, Sanders tries to hold onto the Democratic base while dragging younger voters into the political process. In late September, Sanders and Trump debate. According to polls, Sanders win slimly, since Trump spent the whole night calling him a radical communist. Sanders gets even more popular when it turns out Trump gave him Covid after arriving too late at the debate to be tested.
Both Trump and Sanders survive, but Trump’s handling of Covid-19 is magnified even further.
Come election day, November 3, Sanders does about the same as Clinton with rural and white voters, which is to say not very impressive, but he does much better with voters making under 60k a year and under 50 years old.
Trump appears to be leading by midnight, but when mail-in-ballots get counted, Sanders pulls ahead. Trump refused to concede while Sanders announces victory. Despite the revolutionary circumstances of his victory, the electoral map actually doesn’t appear out of the normal; Sanders wins Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania back from Trump, but the other states remain the same from 2016. So, a pretty narrow victory for the Dems.
Trump launches into a desperate attempt to find voter fraud; Republicans, scared of a socialist president, lend him more support than they would’ve otherwise. Come January 6, however, far from a majority of Republicans are willing to toss out the results. Vice President Mike Pence, a constitutionalist, refuses to stab a stick in the spinning wheels of the transition process.
Enraged Trump supporters break into the Capitol and key buildings across DC. While a huge incident, there’s not really much of a plan; police toss out the rioters and Sanders is confirmed the victor by the next day.
Republicans across the country mostly condemn the attempted insurrection, but a lot applaud it as a patriotic attempt to stop the Deep State Communists from seizing power.
On January 20, 2021, Bernie Sanders is sworn in as the 46th president of the United States. Not only is he the oldest, but he’s also the first Jewish president and the first socialist one too.
Presidency of Bernie Sanders
Okay, so now we’ve gotten to the meaty part of the video. In his first weeks as president, Sanders signs a bunch of executive orders reversing many Trump policies and strengthening the government’s response to Covid-19. He also deletes marijuana from the controlled substance list and issues a huge pardon for many people convicted of possessing the drug.
But President Sanders has more difficulty getting anything juicier done, since he has a major obstacle in his way: Congress. In the House, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has the smallest majority since 1942—220 Dems against 215 Republicans. In the Senate, Democrats and Republicans tie 50-50, with Harris being the tiebreaker.
So, right from the start, Sanders’ ambitious agenda can only be as bold as the most moderate of Democrats, like Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona. While Sanders gets his cabinet appointments in place, including Secretary of Labor Larry Cohen, Secretary of State Jeff Merkley, Secretary of the Treasury Robert Reich, over the course of 2021 and 2022, Sinema and Manchin refuse to sign any bill with a:
· National 15 dollar minimum wage
· Medicare for All
· Paid family leave
· Universal pre-K
· Free public university
Other social policies, like the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, also fail, since Manchin and Sinema refuse to get rid of the filibuster in the Senate, which means most bills that can’t be loopholed through the budget reconciliation process need 60 votes to pass.
So a huge part of Bernie Sanders’ agenda is dead on arrival. On the other hand, Congress does vote for a few major bills:
1. The 2-trillion-dollar Covid-19 Rescue Plan, which sends people stimulus checks and dumps billions of bucks into other key parts of the economy,
2. … a reversal of the GOP’s old Health Care Freedom Act, restoring Obamacare to how it was in 2016 with the bonus of Medicare negotiation for drug prices,
3. A 700-billion-dollar investment in infrastructure
4. An 800-billion-dollar investment in green energy slightly paid for by
5. A moderate tax increase and increased funding for the IRS to go after tax cheats
So, a lot gets done, but not the full Green New Deal or Medicare for All. As it turns out, being president doesn’t mean you can wave a wand and get everything you want done. Congress—the legislature—has a whole bunch of say in the legislative process.
Oh, also, Sanders has to handle foreign policy too! Like any other president would have, Sanders withdraws troops from Afghanistan, ending the War on Terror after 20 years. This is inevitably a disaster, with Sanders receiving most of the blame.
And in February 2022, Russia invades Ukraine. Sanders listens to his allies in the Democratic Party and his advisors, like Matthew Duss: he marshals aid to Ukraine.
So, entering the November 2022 Midterms, President Sanders keeps promising Medicare for All and the Green New Deal. With Obamacare restored and taxes raised but healthcare costs and inflation still high, with disappointing but still gargantuan bills passed, voters head to the ballot box:
Republicans narrowly win the House and the Senate, with the new Democratic Senator of Georgia Raphael Warnock narrowly losing against ex-Senator David Perdue by just a few thousand votes. Democrats, promised the moon, are disappointed by Sanders.
After the disappointing midterms, Sanders is confronted by a looming domestic crisis: a threatened holiday season railroad worker strike. Sanders intervenes in the crisis and lends the unions greater support, especially for their demands for paid sick leave, but freight railroads turn down the deal. With the risk of a strike growing, Congress intervenes and narrowly passes a deal with paid sick leave, which Sanders signs. So, he does get that victory.
Entering into 2023 with a low approval rating, President Sanders is on the back foot. With Republicans controlling Congress, he’s forced to cut some of his programs to avoid reaching the debt ceiling. He also vetoes a series of conservative bills from Congress and goes to a picket line with United Auto Workers.
But, foreign affairs snatches his attention:
In October, Hamas attacks Israel, killing over a thousand. While President Sanders initially expresses his sympathies and states Israel has a right to retaliate against Hamas, he quickly changes his tune when Israel strikes hospitals and refugee camps.
https://x.com/BernieSanders/status/1720845234135765305
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/22/opinion/bernie-sanders-israel-gaza.html
With Israel ignoring Sanders’s demands for caution, and despite a bombardment of criticism from moderate Democrats and all Republicans, President Sanders completely halts US arms shipments to Israel in November 2023 [Leahy Law]. Congress passes a bill to force him to send ammunition, but Sanders vetoes it.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/house-gop-pushes-israel-weapons-bill/story?id=110228315
Using the leverage of threatening to sever ties with Israel, the United States successfully imposes a humanitarian pause to bring aid into Gaza. But the fighting resumes in December, with Israel doubling down on its ground invasion. In February 2024, ignoring President Sanders’ threats of sanctions, Israel invades Rafah.
In May, the United Nations, with the United States abstaining, recognizes Palestine as an independent country and welcomes it as a full member of the UN.
With the United States distancing itself from Israel, many across America call President Sanders, the first Jewish president, an antisemite.
But with Israel occupying most of Gaza and its ammunition stores drained, it switches gears and hunts through Gaza and beyond for the leaders of Hamas. The Israel-Gaza War fades from the front page.
In July, with Trump and Sanders both securing their party’s nomination for president, the Supreme Court rules the president is immune from prosecution for his official acts. This raises the stakes for the 2024 presidential election, which is set to be a rematch of 2020.
While Sanders has many accomplishments to campaign on, he has more promises, since most of his agenda was blocked by Congress. Many on the far-left, accusing Bernie of being a liberal sell-out, pledge to vote third party. Trump, sieged by legal trouble, promises to save America from communism, saying that another 4 years of Sanders will turn the United States into the Soviet Union.
What message do you think would resonate more with voters? Will Sanders win another term in office, or will Trump regain power? And if Sanders wins, could he finally get his bills passed?
Comment below what you think.
