Business Post: After the End of a Series - A Reality of Publishing

Most of you who read this probably got an idea about what I'm going to discuss, but for those slower; this is a discussion about the backend of publishing, sales numbers and the reality of completing a hit series.

The Background

Some of you (most?) probably know that I had/have a hit series called the System Apocalypse. It was a big seller, we used to hit top 100 of the US Amazon charts without fail, even after I started taking long pre-orders. It has, at the time of writing over 4k reviews for book 1 now and with 12 books in the series and a very, very good audio income; it was a massive bestseller.

More than that, we had (still do) some ridiculous readthrough numbers. We're talking 80-90% readthrough for the books, even for book 1 to 2. Those are numbers you can only hope to hit regularly, because it means that every dollar spent on advertising is turning over hugely.

Now, I've talked about the reality of how, even with great readthrough numbers; by 12 books in, that's only like 20-25% of readers still following on. However, if you can increaes the total number of readers coming in, you can still get - or even bigger - releases for each book.

That's what I found with the System Apocalypse.

Then, I ended the series in 2022. Because I always had a plan of 12 books and I wasn't going to spoil a good ending by trying to drag money out.

And we can discuss craft stuff another time, because we're here to talk about the reality of sales and revenue. 2022 we ended the series. That was also the year we released 3 more System Apocalypse co-author works and (most importantly) the year I decided to adjust my production schedule to give me a +6 month gap between finishing and publishing.

By far, 2022 was my most successful year (financially) as an author. Among the reasons for that was the sale of audiobook rights and the advances we received that increased our in-year revenue significantly.

2023 was a challenging year. There's a whole update on that year, but suffice to say I didn't release another major hit, having decided to play with a bunch of new things and gotten distracted by other projects that never finished along with a decline in effectiveness of Facebook ads hurt. In the end, we didn't release another major series till the end of the year, and certainly didn't release a series that was 'planned' or marketed as a 'hit' series.

The Results

2023 saw a 17% decrease in revenue. If we exclude all the advance income that was received from both years, what we saw was a 10% decrease in revenue.

That's obviously less painful, though it still hurts more on a cashflow basis. 2023 also saw a doubling in our salary expenses as we brought on a new hire to help with some work on Kickstarter projects, so the decrease in revenue was even more stark on the backend.

Looks pretty dire, doesn't it? Especially when you consider that annual inflation in 2023 was 4.2%, so every dollar earned had to stretch father still!

Don't get me wrong, it wasn't fun watching the decline but we're not hurting (financially). Just a lot of bruised pride.

Sort of.

Because here's the other side of the equation.

The System Apocalypse went from 31.2% of our income to 19.8% between 2022 to 2023 (a 36% decrease in revenue share). However, actual revenue decreased by 48%.

What does that mean?

All those other releases, all the other books that we wrote, all the other income sources rose to take over a higher percentage of our income.

And that's a GOOD thing.

Because now, we know where our bottom line is, where our base income levels (roughly) are.

After the Bestselling Series Ends

The reality is, once a series ends, sales will drop. Even if you provide advertising to it, even if you push the work out to new readers, sales - unless you hit a trend or get lucky via a social media push by going viral, etc - will fall. That's what happened (and is happening) with the System Apocalypse. There are strategies to push it back up, to help revive the series and get new readers; but the end of the day, the book sales will drop.

So best get saving when the going is good, when the money is coming in.

After that, though, the series doesn't drop off the cliff, not if you're set-up to milk it. However, HOW you extract more value from the series will change. It will - and should - adjust the way you think.

But you'll still see a drop.

So, don't build a business (or a lifestyle!) expecting never ending increases. Save what income you have, expect a drop.

Keep releasing, hopefully you hit another hit series. Maybe you won't, maybe you'll make decisions that are better for you (as a writer) to keep writing like I did. Or maybe you just want to have fun. Either way, each new book - even if it's not a massive hit - has and will benefit from the many, many readers who know you now. They'll give your new work a chance, and hopefully, if you've been improving your craft; you can suck them in.

Even if not, after a year or so, you'll likely find that you have a new baseline. A minimum revenue amount that you can expect. This isn't 'passive' income, because it is supported by releases, by marketing and promotions and finding new ways to exploit your IP. But it is a minimum, and if you do it right, that new 'baseline' can be quite comforting.

I know where my baseline is now, and sure; in another year I'll face the same problem when A Thousand Li ends and goes into a decline. If I don't have another massive hit by then, I expect we'll see a big drop in sales in 2025 and 2026 again.

But again, with the right strategy and marketing; you will have a baseline income.

Just lower.

And knowing that, you can plan for it.

Questions? Feel free to ask.