August 4th, 2020: Judge, Tanaka, What We've Missed, Paxton, Roster Moves

Nine games into the season -- 15% of the schedule -- the Yankees are 8-1 for only the third time in franchise history. They also did it in 1988 and 2003. According to FanGraphs, their postseason odds have gone from 72.9% (preseason with old format) to 91.4% (preseason with new format) to 99.0% (today). Been a productive 12 days. Now for today's thoughts. 

1. Judge's extreme pull approach. Aaron Judge did something amazing Friday night. He inside-outed a pitch into the right-center field short porch for a two-run home run. Ryan Weber's curveball was down and in ...

... and Judge somehow kept his hands in and barreled up a ball that was basically on the black. Here's the video so you can see it in real time. Since Opening Day last season righty hitters have put 1,008 balls in play on pitches down and in, like that one. Only 242 were hit in the air to right field and only 11 of those 242 were hit at 99+ mph or better, like Judge's. A righty hitting a ball that hard to the opposite field happens on roughly 1% of batted balls on pitches in that location. Ridiculous. That homer is also notable because it's the only homer Judge has not pulled this season. Last year he didn't pull a home run until Aug. 20th, in the 70th game of his injury shortened season. Only six of last year's 27 homers were pulled. Six! Judge has already pulled five home runs this season, including that glorious game-winner Sunday night. Prior to Spring Training, I wrote about Judge seemingly falling in love with the opposite field last season, and noted there's a balance to be struck somewhere. Going the other way is great and all, but even a big strong guy like Judge will sacrifice power with that approach. There was a stretch last summer where he hit three home runs in 38 games, for example. This year Judge is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He's pulling everything. Sixteen of his 23 batted balls have been pulled -- his 69.9% pull rate is fifth highest among the 177 hitters with enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title -- way above last year's 38.7%. It's only 23 batted balls, so we need more information before we can say anything definitive about an approach change. It's just kinda interesting Judge has been so extremely pull heavy early this year after being so opposite field heavy most of last season. There's no chance he remains this pull heavy -- no hitter is this pull heavy -- but getting back into the 40% pull range rather than the 30% he was at early last year would be ideal. That's the devastating all-around hitter version of Judge, when he uses the entire field. "His approach has been excellent. As you're in the league more, you gain more and more experience. Hopefully along with that, especially when you're a smart player like Aaron, your process and your game plan should become even a little bit better and a little sharper as you move forward. I think he's just put himself into some really good positions to be able to hunt certain pitches in certain situations. I know it was a storyline last year where all his homers were going the other way, but it was never really a big deal to me. I think it's just more a result of the pitches. He's in a good place, being in a good position to handle mistakes," Aaron Boone said.

2. A different looking Tanaka. Masahiro Tanaka made his season debut Saturday night and pitched well up until giving up a loud two-run double to Xander Bogaerts, the final batter he faced. Tanaka was charged with two runs (one earned) in 2.2 innings. He was on a pitch limit (he threw 51) in his first start back from the concussion. A solid, encouraging start, for sure. Four things stood out Saturday. First, Tanaka is taking his hands over his head during his windup now. Usually he keeps his glove at his chest before breaking his hands and heading toward the plate. On Saturday he was going over his head. You can see it here. That's new. I also noticed Tanaka doing it during Grapefruit League play, so while this is new, it's not new new. I'm not sure the reasoning or the benefit here -- I remember Roger Clemens used to bring his hands over his head whenever he struggled with his mechanics, I guess because it helped him slow everything down and self-correct -- but it's new, and one of several new things about Tanaka in the early going. Could be something, could be nothing. Second, and most notably, Tanaka threw a ton of fastballs Saturday. A ton. Tanaka is the poster child for the anti-fastball philosophy yet he threw 30 fastballs among 51 pitches, or 58.8%. That's up from 32% the last two years, so nearly double. A graph is worth a thousand blog posts:

Tanaka's velocity was good but not exceptional Saturday. He averaged 92.7 mph, a number he hit three times in 31 starts last year, and topped out at 94.0 mph. He reached that in 10 starts last year. "Perhaps if the fans were in the stadium tonight, maybe my fastball would have had 2-3 miles an hour more," Tanaka joked after the game, adding "I think it’s more the excitement and adrenaline of getting back into game action. That naturally brought the velocity up." The velocity was good to see but how often he used his fastball was the biggest difference. Lucas A notes Tanaka threw four fastballs to begin the game for the first time since May 20th, 2017, and the 30 fastballs were more than he threw in 19 of his 31 starts last year. He was on a pitch count and he still threw more fastballs than he did in nearly two-thirds of his starts last season. Crazy. Third, Tanaka threw most of those fastballs up the zone. It was fastballs up and soft stuff down all night. That's not exactly a groundbreaking strategy, but Tanaka elevated his heater more than usual. His pitch locations:

Clear plan of attack there. Not coincidentally, Tanaka got six swings and misses on fastballs Saturday, all up in the zone or above it. Elevated fastballs are a great swing-and-miss pitch and we saw it Saturday. Tanaka made 88 starts from 2017-19 and only once in those 88 starts did he get six whiffs on his heater. We're used to Tanaka the finesse pitcher. He typically lulls hitters to sleep with sliders and splitters, and uses his fastball almost as a show-me pitch. Tanaka was a power pitcher Saturday. Elevated fastballs for whiffs and breaking stuff down to change eye levels. That's what we'd expect to see from a true power pitcher like Gerrit Cole or the good version of James Paxton, not Tanaka. It's one start on a pitch limit, I know, but a new attack plan with a new pitching coach demands our attention. Let's see what happens next time out. I'm not sure throwing that many fastballs that high in the zone is a small sample fluke. Looks to me like a conscious adjustment. (I first wrote about Tanaka possibly benefiting from more fastballs last March.) Fourth, and lastly, Tanaka's splitter had good drop Saturday. He had so much trouble throwing his trademark pitch last year that he changed the grip at midseason. A graph:

The vertical movement on Tanaka's splitter was right in line with 2018 and in line with the second half of last season, after he changed his grip. The pitch had much less drop early last year, before Tanaka altered the grip. I'm not sure whether Tanaka is using his new or old grip now, but one start into the season the movement looks good. Much better than early last year, when the splitter too often moved side-to-side rather than dove down and out of the zone. Clearly, the elevated fastballs and overall fastball usage are the big takeaways from this one 51-pitch start. It's a significant adjustment and would really change the opposing team's scouting report. No longer could they stay back and look offspeed all the time. The drop on the splitter is encouraging too. It's not where it was in 2017, but it's better than the first half last year. Tanaka gave us a lot to monitor going forward in those 51 pitches. "I wasn’t happy with my command. It’s been since Spring Training where I’ve been in a competitive game, so I think there was some rust there. I kind of felt it when I was throwing my bullpen. Really didn’t have the good command, the pinpoint command that you want," the never satisfied Tanaka said following his outing. 

3. What we've missed: July. The 2020 regular season is underway but we still missed out on quite a bit last month. More than three weeks of regular season baseball was replaced with Summer Camp, and the schedule had to be revised as well. This was only the second time since 1871 that baseball was not played on July 4th. It happened around the strike in 1981 and again around the pandemic this year. Here's what we missed in March, April, May, and June. Now here's what we missed in July. (Even though they're playing baseball now, I'm going to keep this going in August and September because the schedule changed.)

Subway Series

The novelty of interleague play has mostly worn off but I'm not gonna lie, I do still love the Subway Series. Mets vs. Yankees is always fun for the Axisa clan (got a bunch of Mets fans in my extended family). The two New York teams were originally scheduled to play four games last month: July 7th and 8th at Yankee Stadium and July 28th and 29th at Citi Field. We settled for a home-and-home exhibition series instead. Lame. Perhaps the stars would have aligned and the baseball gods would've given us two Gerrit Cole vs. Jacob deGrom matchups last month. That would've been appointment viewing. The Yankees are 71-51 all-time against the Mets during interleague play (plus 4-1 in the World Series!), though the Mets have won five of their last eight meetings dating back to 2018. The Yankees will face the Mets during regional play this year, so it's not a total loss. They'll play three at Citi Field from Aug. 21st to 23rd and three at Yankee Stadium from Aug. 28th to 20th. Maybe we'll still get our two deGrom vs. Cole matchups after all.

All-Star Game

It can boring at times, but MLB has the best All-Star Game among the four major sports and I don't think it's close. I still enjoy it too. I like seeing all the best players on the same field. The All-Star Game festivities were scheduled to begin with the Futures Game on July 12th this year. The Home Run Derby would have been the day after that and the All-Star Game the day after that. Here's my guess at who would have represented the Yankees at each event at Dodger Stadium.

Futures Game: Clarke Schmidt

There have been a few teenagers in the Futures Game over the years -- Wander Franco represented the Rays last year, for example -- though not in their first pro season, which leads me to believe 17-year-old Jasson Dominguez would not have made the cut. He likely would have split this season between Extended Spring Training and rookie ball, and rookie ball kids are never picked for the Future Games. They go with full season kids who have been playing all year and have a body of work. Next year for Dominguez. Not this year. Deivi Garcia represented the Yankees at the Futures Game last year and my hunch is he would have made his MLB debut in the first half, making Schmidt the team's obvious Futures Game candidate. He's a former first round pick and among the game's better pitching prospects. Easy call there. Hypothetical Futures Game sleeper candidate: Ezequiel Duran, my preseason No. 27 prospect. Duran hit .256/.329/.496 (143 wRC+) with a league leading 13 home runs for Short Season Staten Island last season. Similar production with Low-A Charleston would have put him on the Futures Game map this year.

Home Run Derby: Gleyber Torres

Aaron Judge was not given a clean bill of health until right before Summer Camp, so he would have missed most of the first half. He's said he (probably) won't do the Home Run Derby again unless it's at Yankee Stadium anyway. Giancarlo Stanton has participated (and won) the Home Run Derby previously and doesn't seem particularly eager to do it again, and I can't imagine last year's injuries (and this spring's calf injury) would have made him any more enthusiastic. Gary Sanchez was not invited to the Home Run Derby last year as far as I know, though he was on the fence about it anyway. We know Luke Voit wants to do it, but Torres is the bigger name, and he's turned into quite the power hitter himself. It's not a given that a Yankee participates in the Home Run Derby, though I imagine MLB wants one in there for ratings purposes, and Gleyber's a good pick. My guess is Torres would have been in this year's event and no one can prove me wrong, so there.

All-Star Game: Aroldis Chapman, Gerrit Cole, DJ LeMahieu, Gary Sanchez, Gleyber Torres 

As noted, Judge was not cleared to return until right before Summer Camp, so he would've missed too much time to be an All-Star. Stanton's calf injury would have delayed the start to his season too, plus Nelson Cruz seems to have the All-Star DH spot locked down (Jorge Soler as the token Royal is a good backup). At this point in his career I'm guessing Stanton would happily skip the All-Star Game and take the four-day break at midseason. That leaves five obvious All-Stars. Chapman and Cole are on the very short list of the game's best at their position, so they would've been locks if healthy. LeMahieu gets COVID-19, plays an exhibition game and a half, and ho hum here is 14-for-34 (.412) eight games into his season. The "The Machine" nickname is very appropriate. I think LeMahieu not only would have been an All-Star, I think he would have started because Yankees fans would vote for him like crazy, and Jose Altuve is tainted by the sign-stealing scandal. Sanchez has started slow this year but he remains one of the premier catchers in the game and especially the American League. His biggest All-Star competition behind the plate would have been Yasmani Grandal, Christian Vazquez, and I guess Salvador Perez since Royals fans always stuff the ballot. And then there's Gleyber, who is simply one of the best middle infielders in the sport. Shortstop is absolutely stacked even with Carlos Correa a possible non-factor post-sign-stealing scandal. Torres would have been up against Tim Anderson, Xander Bogaerts, Marcus Semien, and possibly Jorge Polanco for the two shortstop spots behind presumed starter Francisco Lindor. I think he would have made it and given the Yankees five All-Stars for the first time since, uh, last year (Chapman, LeMahieu, Sanchez, Torres, and Masahiro Tanaka). My pick for sleeper All-Star: Jordan Montgomery. He looked great in Spring Training, great in Summer Camp, and great in his first start back. So many pitchers make the All-Star Game each year as injury replacements (and schedule replacements since guys who pitch that Sunday are ineligible to pitch in the All-Star Game) -- 16 pitchers made the American League roster last year and I can see a scenario in which Montgomery pitched like a top 16 starter in the first half -- that the door would have been open given how well he's thrown the ball.

Rare trip to St. Louis

The Yankees were originally scheduled to play the NL Central during interleague play this season and the schedule would've taken them to Busch Stadium for a three-game series in St. Louis from Aug. 17th to 19th. First series after the All-Star break. It would have been a literal (grew up in the St. Louis suburbs) and figurative (drafted and made MLB debut with the Cardinals) homecoming for Luke Voit. Only twice have the Yankees visited the Cardinals during interleague play: they lost two of three at the old Busch Stadium in 2005 and won two of three at the new Busch Stadium in 2014. Only two of the nine players in the Yankees starting lineup the last time they played in St. Louis are still active:

1. LF Brett Gardner
2. 2B Brian Roberts
3. CF Jacoby Ellsbury
4. 1B Brian McCann
5. C John Ryan Murphy (he's currently the Pirates backup catcher)
6. RF Ichiro Suzuki
7. SS Brendan Ryan
8. 3B Kelly Johnson
9. RHP Hiroki Kuroda

McCann starting at first base? Ryan hitting above Johnson? The 2014 Yankees were a trip, man. The Yankees beat the Cardinals in the 1928 and 1943 World Series and the Cardinals beat the Yankees in 1926, 1942, and 1964 World Series -- only the Yankees and Dodgers (11 times) and Yankees and Giants (seven times) have met in the World Series more often -- so there's history here. Fun little trip to a ballpark the Yankees don't visit often, this series would have been.

Trade Deadline

With all due respect to the Joe Harvey-for-Alfredo Garcia swap, the Yankees did not make a meaningful trade at the deadline last year (the Edwin Encarnacion deal went down in June). They have generally been very active at the deadline since the current core emerged in 2017, however. The Yankees added Todd Frazier, Jaime Garcia, Sonny Gray, Tommy Kahnle, and David Robertson prior to the 2017 deadline and Zack Britton, J.A. Happ, Lance Lynn, and Luke Voit prior to the 2018 deadline. Even in 2016 they made all those sellers trades (Carlos Beltran, Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, Ivan Nova). The trade deadline is usually very busy around these parts. Last year was the exception, not the rule. It's impossible to know what the Yankees would have needed at the deadline this year but pitching is as good a bet as anything because Luis Severino got hurt before the shutdown. Who's to say James Paxton wouldn't be throwing bullets right now had he been able to have a normal rehab in Tampa after back surgery rather than be stuck at home during a pandemic though? Tommy Kahnle's elbow ligament may have never given out during a normal season. His injury might be a direct result of the Spring Training, shutdown, Summer Camp weirdness. Aside from more pitching, the Yankees may have needed a backup catcher, and we can't rule out Brian Cashman upgrading a strength, like he did last year with Encarnacion. Perhaps that means bringing in another shortstop to form a three-headed middle infield monster with DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres. We'll still have a trade deadline this year but geez, who knows what to expect with an expanded postseason field and billions in lost revenue? We missed out on a normally hectic trade deadline last month. One of the most fun days of the year.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Tim Redding. Our next random Yankee is a native New Yorker who grew up a Yankees fan in Rochester. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Mark Bellhorn, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Glenallen Hill, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Lawton, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Donovan Osborne, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Once upon a time the Yankees could not reach into Triple-A to call up a Domingo German or a Mike King when they needed pitching reinforcements. The farm system was thin and Brian Cashman was perpetually scrounging for arms. The bullpen was a mess early in 2005, so much so that Cashman designated veterans Paul Quantrill (24 runs in 32 innings) and Mike Stanton (11 runs in 14 innings) for assignment on June 29th. I still remember the New York Post back page the next day:

"(Joe Torre) told me I was designated for assignment and Cashman got on the phone and said it was a move from Tampa and some other stuff. It was shocking, it totally blindsided me. I didn’t see this coming. I am numb," Stanton told George King. Three days later the Yankees traded Quantrill to the Padres for righty Tim Redding and lefty Darrell May. Kevin Brown and Carl Pavano were hurt and the Yankees needed warm bodies to chew up innings. May had a 5.61 ERA in 59.1 innings with San Diego and allowed seven runs in 4.1 innings in his Yankees debut on July 9th. Rather than give May another start, Redding, then 27, got the ball at Fenway Park on July 15. He had a 9.10 ERA in 29.2 innings with the Padres. "I could die today a happy man because I put the Yankees uniform on. It’s going to be emotional (warming up) in the pen and the Sox fans giving me (grief), but it will be a dream come true," Redding told King. He faced 11 batters and retired three. Redding's night went single, walk, strikeout, strikeout, double, walk, double, pop up, walk, walk, single, showers. He exited with the bases loaded and no outs in the second inning, May replaced him, and the Yankees were down 8-0 by the end of the inning. The 17-1 final score is tied for the most lopsided Yankees loss in rivalry history (incredibly, it was the second of two 17-1 losses to the Red Sox that year). "I'm ashamed of myself for the way I performed. It's not the way I'm able to perform, especially against these guys. You don't want your first taste of Yankees history being a loss to them in a rout," Redding told Tyler Kepner after the game. He was charged with six runs on four hits and four walks in one inning. Redding is one of 11 men whose Yankees career consists of one start and nothing else, and his six runs allowed are tied for fourth most among those 11. He is the only one of those 11 to throw fewer than two innings in his start:

1. Andy O'Connor, 1908: 11 runs in 8 innings
2. Stefan Wever, 1982: 9 runs in 2.2 innings
3. Christian Parker, 2001: 7 runs in 3 innings
t-4. Tim Redding, 2005: 6 runs in 1 innings
t-4. Brett Jodie, 2001: 6 runs in 2 innings

Redding and May were designated for assignment after the game -- May never pitched in the big leagues again -- and were later outrighted to Triple-A, where they spent the rest of the 2005 season. The moves cleared roster space for Al Leiter, who came over in a trade with the Marlins, and Aaron Small, who was called up from Triple-A. Redding had a 5.08 ERA in 51.1 innings with Triple-A Columbus after being dropped from the roster. He split 2006 between Triple-A and MLB with the Nationals, spent 2007 in Triple-A with Washington, 2008 in the Nationals rotation, split 2009 between Triple-A and MLB with the Mets, returned to the Yankees as a Triple-A depth arm in 2010, then bounced around Triple-A, Korea, the Mexican League, and independent leagues from 2011-13. Redding, now 42, coached in the Nationals farm system in 2017 and 2018. Not sure what he's up to these days though.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. James Paxton looked terrible again Sunday. Fastball velocity was still down -- his average velocity actually dropped from 92.4 mph in his first start to 91.5 mph in his second (yikes!) -- and his arm slot was still lower than last season. The hitters will tell you everything you need to know and they looked awfully comfortable in the box. "I’m concerned. I’m trying to do everything that I can to figure out what’s going on," Paxton said Sunday when asked about his missing velocity. The Yankees are close to a lock for the expanded postseason field, so they can afford to be patient and let Paxton work through things, but yeesh, he looks horrible. He's got maybe 10 more regular season starts to figure it out ... A context-free stat I dug up for no reason in particular: the Yankees have gone down 1-2-3 in only 22 of their 82 offensive innings this season, or 27%, and six of the 22 came last Sunday, when Patrick Corbin mowed them down. A baserunner in 73% of your offensive innings seems really good! I have no idea what the league average is or what the Yankees did last year, hence context-free, but my guess is 73% is really good, even in a nine-game sample. The offensive depth means the Yankees are a threat to score at any time ... The 30-man roster becomes a 28-man roster Thursday barring MLB and the MLBPA agreeing to an extension. Luis Cessa will return tomorrow, so the Yankees have three moves coming. Brooks Kriske was sent down following last night's game, so that's the first move to clear a spot for Cessa. I think Thairo Estrada goes down Thursday. He has one plate appearance and three defensive innings this year and is clearly behind Tyler Wade on the backup infield depth chart. The other demotion could come down to pitcher availability. As good as he looked Saturday -- and he looked great -- Nick Nelson might be get demoted Thursday if he throws a few innings Wednesday and won't be available for a few days. If he doesn't, and Mike King throws a few innings instead, then King could go down rather than Nelson. Estrada and either King or Nelson are my picks to be sent down when the roster shrinks. Hopefully MLB agrees to keep the 30-man roster another two weeks and those guys can hang around a bit longer (the Yankees designated Chris Iannetta for assignment when Masahiro Tanaka returned, so there's an open 40-man spot for Cessa) ... And finally, MLB may want to look into a bubble for the postseason. The Marlins and now the Cardinals have had COVID-19 outbreaks -- gotta figure there will be more because there are so many people involved in this sport and it only takes one idiot to ruin it -- and, once you get to postseason, you don't want teams losing players to positive tests on game day, which will inevitably happen based on everything we've seen these last two weeks. A bubble might be the only way to have a complete, representative postseason. I have no idea where they could do it -- the expanded postseason means you need one bubble per league and at least two stadiums per bubble for the Wild Card Round -- but they should look into it. New York is out because of the weather, ditto Baltimore and Washington. Maybe the Bay Area and Southern California? California is a COVID-19 hot spot but the NBA is successfully holding a bubble in Florida. It can work with the proper protocols. Dunno. Just thinking out loud. A bubble seems like the best chance at a legitimate postseason.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)