Thoughts after Tommy Kahnle goes down with Tommy John surgery

I'm gonna miss Tommy Tightpants. (Getty)

The pitching injury epidemic has hit the Yankees: Tommy Kahnle will undergo Tommy John surgery. He struck out the side Sunday, had forearm tightness Tuesday, and couldn't throw at all Wednesday. Tests Thursday and Friday revealed the damaged ligament and Kahnle will have surgery soon. "It is just one of those where your heart goes out to Tommy knowing that it is a significant injury that has to get taken care of," Aaron Boone said yesterday. Even with some bigger names in the bullpen, Kahnle was a very important member of the relief crew as a high strikeout (35.5% last year), high ground ball (50.4%) guy whose changeup made him effective against righties and lefties. With Dellin Betances gone, I'm pretty sure Kahnle's changeup was my single favorite pitch on the staff. Also, Kahnle was nails in the postseason the last three years, allowing five runs in 19.1 innings, with three of the five runs coming in one 1.1-inning outing. A big loss, this is. Let's break it all down. 

1. Kahnle's future in pinstripes. The injury likely ends Kahnle's time with the Yankees. He is under control one more year as an arbitration-eligible player, but the typical Tommy John surgery rehab timetable suggests Kahnle won't pitch at all next season, which makes him a non-tender candidate. The injury all but ensures Kahnle will receive no raise over this year's $2.65M full season salary, but it's still hard to see the Yankees paying him that to rehab when he'll become a free agent next winter. Pretty good chance they'd get zero return on that investment. The Yankees non-tendered Nathan Eovaldi rather than pay him to rehab during his final team control year in 2017 and chances are the same with be true with Kahnle. Sucks. Because he is a reliever and wouldn't need to get stretched out, I suppose there's a chance Kahnle can return next August or September. Will the Yankees bet $2.65M on that off-chance? No, probably not, especially not with revenue down this season and uncertainty abound moving forward. One of those "two-year deal for an injured guy who spends Year 1 rehabbing" contracts could work, but the Yankees have avoided those in recent years. They gave Tommy John surgery rehabber Adam Warren a two-year deal this past winter, but that was a no-risk minor league contract, and the last injured guy they signed to a guaranteed big league deal was David Aardsma in 2012, and he threw only one inning in pinstripes. I think the most likely outcome is the Yankees non-tender Kahnle, who turns 31 next week, and he signs a cheap two-year rehab deal elsewhere. Would be a bummer but I get it. The Yankees figure to focus their dollars and roster spots on players who can help them win right now.

2. Loaisiga's big chance. Based on Boone's bullpen usage Thursday night, Jonathan Loaisiga will get an opportunity to throw high-leverage innings now that Kahnle's done for the year. That makes sense. The alternatives are David Hale, Jonathan Holder, and I guess Luis Avilan (Ben Heller was sent down earlier this week). Give me Loaisiga over those guys. It's power stuff that can miss bats and there's upside. Avilan, Hale, and Holder are what they are at this point and that's fine. That's all they are though: fine. Just fine. Loaisiga is likely better than them right now and there's reason to believe his best days are still to come. A few more strikes and Loaisiga could really be something. The Yankees are still pretty well set up at the end of games with Zack Britton, Chad Green, and Adam Ottavino. Loaisiga as the fourth option -- he essentially slots into Green's role as the multi-inning guy who bridges the gap between starter and high leverage relievers -- is the way to go with Kahnle out. The new bullpen hierarchy:

• Closer: LHP Zack Britton
• Setup: RHP Chad Green, RHP Adam Ottavino
• Middle: LHP Luis Avilan, RHP Jonathan Holder, RHP Jonathan Loaisiga
• Long: RHP David Hale, RHP Mike King
• Emergency: RHP Brooks Kriske, RHP Nick Nelson 

And this, needless to say, is an enormous opportunity for Loaisiga, who finally has something of a defined big league role. He was an up-and-down guy who bounced between the rotation and bullpen the last two years. Now he's definitively in the bullpen and will have an opportunity at important innings rather than mop up duty. For a 25-year-old with a long injury history, this might be Loaisiga's best (only) chance to carve out a long-term role with the Yankees. Success now and he's an unquestioned part of the bullpen moving forward. If he stumbles, Loaisiga may never get another chance to find a niche with the Yankees and be relegated to depth arm status. He's no longer just a guy. Loaisiga is an important piece in the bullpen. "Tommy is an elite reliever in the league so some guys are going to have to step up," Boone said yesterday.

3. Chapman's return. Aroldis Chapman has cleared the COVID-19 protocols and has been cleared to rejoin the Yankees. "Chappie is back today. He has been cleared. Hopefully he will be able to come and play catch and try and get an idea of where exactly he is at," Boone said yesterday. It's been a while since Chapman threw from a mound. He didn't pitch at all during Summer Camp, and although he was able to work out during his quarantine, he couldn't throw. The Yankees will put Chapman on a mound soon, possibly even today, and plot out a plan. Bullpen session to live batting practice to simulated game. The usual. In a 60-game season that feels less and less likely to be completed with each passing day, I bet the Yankees bring Chapman back pretty quickly. Might be one simulated game and done. There's no sense in wasting bullets in fake games during a short season and, with Kahnle out, the Yankees can use all the bullpen help they can get. They don't have to throw Chapman right back into the closer's role. They can ease him back in with lower leverage work -- that's what they did following his knee injury in Sept. 2018 -- then shift him back into the closer's role when he's ready. Do you want Kriske or Nelson as the 10th man in a 10-man bullpen, or Chapman at maybe 75%? Exactly. Give me Chapman. Every pitch he throws in a simulated game is a pitch that could be put to better use in a big league game. Ideally Chapman would return and join Kahnle in the bullpen. Since that is no longer possible, Chapman returning right as Kahnle goes down is the next best thing. Wouldn't surprise me to see Chapman on the active roster within three or four days. Unless he looks extremely rusty, one bullpen session and one simulated game might be all the Yankees give him. "The good thing is he was never really sick. He was able to maintain probably a level of physical conditioning that some people otherwise wouldn’t have been able to. But we will get a better evaluation of where he is at when we see him," Boone said.

4. Possible trade targets. Yesterday would've been the trade deadline in a normal season. During his bastard season, the trade deadline is still one month away. The Yankees are now down one key reliever (Kahnle), their fifth starter inspires little confidence (J.A. Happ), and their supposed No. 2 starter was missing 4 mph and throwing from a lower arm slot in his season debut (James Paxton). I reckon the Yankees will be in the market for pitching help at the trade deadline. Whether they pull the trigger on a deal is another matter. Looking only at the bullpen market, here are some possible trade targets with Kahnle going down, in no particular order.

RHP Mychal Givens, Orioles

The first name that jumped to mind. The Yankees reportedly pursued Givens at the deadline last year and the Orioles stink, so he'll be available. (Baltimore traded Richard Bleier to the Marlins last night). Givens, 30, has late-inning experience and he's a low arm slot fastball/slider guy who manhandles righties (.179/.258/.329 with a 36.8 K% last year). That would come in handy against the Astros (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, George Springer, etc.) and Twins (Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Sano, etc.) come postseason time. Givens is under team control as an arbitration-eligible player next year, so he'd replace Kahnle this season and next. We know the Yankees are willing to trade prospects within the division (see: Britton trade) and I can't imagine the O's new front office would be against sending Givens to a division rival. They need as much talent as they can get and are so far from contention that it makes no sense to worry about helping a rival. Givens is an obvious fit.

RHP Dan Altavilla, Mariners

A personal fave. I first wrote about Altavilla as a trade target in Dec. 2018. The 27-year-old throws really hard with high spin rates, and he misses enough bats (career 25.4 K%). He also walks too many (career 11.9 BB%), though that's not always a dealbreaker out of the bullpen (see: Betances, Ottavino, etc.). Altavilla has a reverse split for his career but his lower arm slot and fastball/slider combination suggests he'd be most effective against righties, making him a lower cost alternative to Givens. He's under team control through 2023 as well, so it's a long-term buy. Help now and later. Despite their not horrible 4-4 start, the Mariners are really bad, and they figure to be very willing to trade an unproven reliever for a prospect(s) at the deadline. Altavilla shows the traits the Yankees love (velocity, spin, strikeouts) and that puts him on the radar.

RHP Trevor Gott, Giants

I've always liked Gott and I never really understood why the Nationals kept him buried in Triple-A from 2016-18 even though their big league bullpens stunk. San Francisco's new front office brought the 27-year-old in last season and he had a 4.44 ERA (3.12 FIP) in 52.2 innings. The ERA wasn't good, but the strikeout (26.6%) and walk (7.9%) rates were, ditto the velocity and spin. Here's video. The raw tools are good and Gott is under team control another three seasons beyond this one. I could see the Giants hanging on to him and trying to make a run at the expanded postseason -- they're 4-4 in the early going -- but, if they fall out of it, Gott is someone who could interest the Yankees. He can miss bats, his walk rate is under control, and he can help replace Kahnle now and later.

LHP Gregory Soto, Tigers

Closer Joe Jimenez is the Tigers reliever most likely to pop up in trade rumors the next few weeks. Soto's the one that has my attention though. The 25-year-old southpaw has eight strikeouts in 4.2 scoreless, hitless, and walkless innings this year, and he's sitting 97-99 mph with spin. Here's video. That will play, folks. Soto started in the minors and had control problems (career 13.4 BB%), then, when the Tigers put him in the bullpen last year, his velocity jumped and he threw more strikes. Jimenez is the bigger name and has the more glorious job and hey, he's interesting too. Young lefties with huge velocity are always worth pursuing, however. Soto's a real fun under-the-radar trade target.

RHP Daniel Bard, Rockies

I kinda love it. Bard, now 35, is attempting a comeback with the Rockies -- his last MLB game prior to this season was April 27th, 2013, the day before Nolan Arenado made his big league debut -- and it's going well enough. He's allowed two runs in 4.2 innings thus far, and, more importantly, he's struck out four and walked zero. During his various comeback attempts from 2014-17, Bard walked 46 (!) and struck out nine in 13 minor league innings. The yips are brutal, man, but it appears he's over them. In the early going Bard's fastball is averaging 97.2 mph -- he's topped out at 99.5 mph -- with an excellent 2,615 mph spin rate. Here's video. The stuff is legit. Also, Bard has less than four years of service time, so he'd remain under team control as an arbitration-eligible player in 2021 and 2022. Trade for him and it doesn't work out, big deal. You non-tender him and move on. If it does work though, you've got him for another two years. I am intrigued. What is an appropriate asking price for a guy who hasn't played in six years but has looked good in a tiny sample? Good luck figuring that out. Also, the Rockies are 4-2 in the early going and the postseason has been expanded. They're probably planning to make a run at a postseason spot and trading Bard would run counter to that. Like I said though, I'm intrigued. Let's check back in a few weeks and see where Bard and the Rockies (and the Yankees) stand.

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I should note only players in the 60-man player pool can be traded this year, but teams can get around that with players to be named later (Bleier was traded for a player to be named last night). Trade the big leaguer now, then the player to be named becomes a non-60-man prospect after the season, once those guys are eligible to be traded again. The Yankees do have a few prospects on their 60-man roster at the alternate site (Albert Abreu, Estevan Florial, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, etc.), but, as long as the other team is willing to wait until after the season for a player to be named, they can trade anyone in the farm system. I'm sure we will have many more trade deadline conversations between now and Aug. 31. The 60-man roster/player to be named later loophole is just something to keep in mind during trade season.

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)