July 27th, 2020: COVID-19, Paxton, Verlander, Abad, Happ

The Yankees won games started by Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin this weekend and lost a game in which Stephen Strasburg was scratched and replaced by Erick Fedde. Go figure. Gotta say though, the new postseason format has taken some of the edge off. Corbin mowed the Yankees down Sunday and I caught myself feeling frustrated, then I remembered it doesn't matter because there isn't a significant difference between first and second place this year. I don't love it but I'll live with it for one year. Anyway, because the Yankees are not playing tonight, I figured I'd run Tuesday morning's post Monday night. That way I can maybe sleep in a little in the morning.

1. COVID-19 outbreak. It was nice to get one weekend of regular season baseball before the pandemic brought us all back to reality. The Marlins are experiencing an outbreak -- they've had at least 14 individuals, including 11 players, test positive in recent days -- and it forced two games to be postponed Monday: Marlins vs. Orioles because duh, and Yankees vs. Phillies because the Phillies played the Marlins over the weekend. Three Marlins tested positive Sunday morning and they still played that afternoon. Seems dumb! It's not good when people on the field are losing confidence in the protocols -- "I'm scared. I really am," Nationals manager Dave Martinez said today -- but MLB is not about to cancel the season. Not yet, anyway. They have mechanisms in place to keep the season going (60-man player pool, taxi squad, etc.) and they didn't go through all that trouble to get the season started only to pull the plug four days in. MLB will try to manage the outbreak and soldier on, and I'm conflicted. On one hand, I missed baseball dearly and it's great to watch meaningful games again. On the other hand, I don't believe so many people (players, coaches, stadium workers, etc.) should risk working through a pandemic just to put a show on for me. It's going to happen whether I'm comfortable with it or not though. As far as the Yankees go, tomorrow's game remains up in the air. The Phillies went through additional testing earlier today and they are waiting for the results before making a decision about tomorrow's game. (What's the required number of positive tests to postpone the game? Beats me!) If they play tomorrow, the Yankees just might start Gerrit Cole on normal rest rather than push J.A. Happ back a day. Cole likes his five-day schedule and pitching him tomorrow allows him to face the Red Sox on Sunday rather than the Orioles on Monday. If tomorrow's game gets canceled, then I have to think Cole would start Wednesday. You don't want to keep pushing that guy's starts back. These four games this week (two in Philadelphia and two in New York) are the only time the Yankees play the Phillies this year. If tomorrow's game is postponed, back-to-back doubleheaders Wednesday and Thursday would really suck. MLB should just cancel games this year and not worry about making them up later. If teams play an unequal number of games, so be it. It happened around the 1981 strike, so there is precedent. Cancel games and set the standings according to winning percentage. That makes more sense to me than trying to reschedule games during a pandemic. Hopefully everyone with the Marlins and Phillies is okay, and so is everyone they came into contact with. I badly want baseball to work this year but I also want everyone to be safe, and I'm not sure those two things can happen simultaneously. (Given how many people I've seen improperly wearing masks and high-fiving the last few days -- Yankees included -- it might be best for MLB to install an independent compliance official in the dugout to ensure the protocols are followed. First offense gets a warning, second gets a fine, third gets a suspension. The system needs to have teeth to work.)

2. Paxton's bad start. I'm not normally one to overreact to a bad game or a stretch of bad games, but I'm worried about James Paxton, mostly because he looked nothing like James Paxton on Saturday night. His velocity was way down -- Paxton did not throw a fastball over 92.1 mph Saturday after averaging 95.7 mph last season -- and his release point dropped roughly six inches. I'm no scout but even I noticed Paxton's lower arm slot during the live broadcast. It was visible to the naked eye. Here's 2020 Paxton overlaid with 2019 Paxton so you can really see the difference (GIF via Lucas A):

Yeesh. I wrote about Paxton's start at CBS and so did Bobby at Views from 314ft. Earlier this month Paxton admitted he was still waiting for his velocity to return -- "It will be good to see when I’m in the mid-to-high 90s. That would show me I’m 100% back" he said -- and he also said he was having trouble getting "full extension" with his delivery, according to Jack Curry. Following Sunday's start Aaron Boone acknowledged Paxton's velocity was down in Summer Camp and said he is still working through mechanical issues. I'm worried for two reasons. One, Paxton had back surgery in February. Kind of a big deal! We might be able to draw a straight line from the surgery -- Paxton had a herniated disc repaired and a cyst removed -- to his inability to get "full extension" with his delivery. His body's changed and it may not work the same way it once did. It's entirely possible Paxton will have to develop new mechanics after back surgery rather than simply get back to his old mechanics. And two, Paxton started throwing in May and that should be enough time to build arm strength, or at least get close to full strength. "I think I’ve thrown probably 12-14 bullpens. It’s feeling really good," he said on May 22nd. This isn't a guy who picked up a baseball for the first time since surgery on July 1st, when Summer Camp opened. Paxton had been throwing for a good 6-8 weeks leading up to that. The arm strength should be there and yet it is not, which leads me to believe the problem goes beyond not having a normal Spring Training. Paxton at 91-93 mph is a much different animal than Paxton at 96-99 mph. He's not missing 1-2 mph. His top velocity Saturday was nearly 4 mph below his average velocity last year. I suppose the good news is Paxton says he's healthy. He says he's pain free and that the back is a non-issue. He did admit he felt "sluggish" and that his arm "didn't feel like it was really live" on Saturday, which isn't good overall, though I guess that indicates he feels better most days? Paxton coming out of that start saying he felt great wouldn't have been reassuring. There's nothing the Yankees can do at this point other than wait. They're very good and the new expanded postseason format makes them pretty close to a lock for October. Even in a 60-game season, the Yankees have the luxury of time and can let Paxton work on things. Now, if the postseason comes around and Paxton is still throwing like that, it'll be a real problem, both for the team and for him and his impending free agency. Worry about that when the time comes. For now, I am worried about Paxton just because he's coming back from back surgery and looked nothing like himself Saturday. I'm also not yet in panic mode because the Yankees and Paxton have time to figure this out.

3. The Verlander injury. The American League and World Series landscapes changed dramatically over the weekend. Astros ace Justin Verlander was shut down with a forearm strain Sunday, the team announced. He was quite good in his Opening Day start and there didn't appear to be any signs of injury. The Astros insist Verlander's season is not over, but he will be shut down a few weeks, and August is right around the corner. It'll be difficult for him to return at full strength and pitch a meaningful length of time during the regular season. “It’s a forearm strain. He’s shut down for a couple of weeks and we’ll reevaluate at that time. That’s all I can tell you," Astros manager Dusty Baker said during a conference call Sunday. Forearm strains are a common precursor to Tommy John surgery but they don't always lead to elbow reconstruction. Zack Britton spent two stints and 76 total days on the injured list with a forearm strain in 2017 and hasn't had any elbow problems since. Surgery can be avoided. Verlander is going to miss time though, and Houston's rotation is not what it was the last few years. Gerrit Cole is a Yankee and several pitchers on their staff are not at 100%. Their rotation depth chart looks something like this at the moment:

1. RHP Justin Verlander (out with forearm strain)
2. RHP Zack Greinke
3. RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (returning from Tommy John surgery)
4. RHP Jose Urquidy (tested positive for COVID-19 and missed Summer Camp)
5. RHP Josh James (late start to Summer Camp after daughter's birth)
6. LHP Framber Valdez
7. RHP Brad Peacock (on injured list with shoulder soreness)
8. RHP Rogelio Armenteros (on injured list following March elbow surgery)

It's not great. I know they're the Astros and they always seem to find a way (see: Urquidy seemingly coming out of nowhere last postseason), but the rotation isn't looking great at the moment. Verlander's a difference-maker and losing him for most if not all of the season opens the door for the Athletics to make a 60-game mad dash at the AL West title, though that doesn't really matter anymore with the expanded postseason format. More relevant to the Yankees, it makes the Astros far less imposing in a short postseason series. Verlander is a high-strikeout righty and high-strikeout righties can give the Yankees fits. In the last three postseasons Verlander has made four starts against the Yankees and allowed seven runs in 29.2 innings. He struck out 37 and three of the seven runs came on one swing (this one). Maybe Verlander pulls a Britton and gets over the forearm strain, and is back in time for the postseason. Could happen. Given what we know about forearm strains, it seems far more likely Verlander will either be unavailable or compromised come postseason time. The Astros are still really good -- their lineup remains a nightmare to navigate -- but they are clearly more vulnerable right now than they've been at any point in the last 4-5 years. The expanded postseason format softens the blow a little bit and the Astros still feel like a postseason lock to me. In the postseason though, they aren't nearly as scary without Verlander fronting the rotation. FanGraphs says their World Series odds dipped from 13.7% on Saturday, the day before the injury, to 11.7% on Monday, the day after the injury. That's an enormous drop after losing one player to injury. Verlander's impact in a short series can be that great. (On another note, Verlander's injury combined with Chris Sale's injury creates a much clearer path for Cole to win the Cy Young and lead the league in strikeouts. Shane Bieber and a few others will have something to say about that, but with Verlander down, I think Cole is now the clear No. 1 pitcher in the American League.) 

4. Yankees make Abad signing. Sometimes you can't pass up the obvious joke. The Yankees signed veteran lefty reliever Fernando Abad to a minor league contract over the weekend, the team announced. He was sent to the alternate site in Scranton. Abad was with the Nationals in Spring Training and he was expected to make their Opening Day roster before the shutdown. He tested positive for COVID-19 a few weeks ago and never rejoined the team for Summer Camp. Washington released him during his 14-day quarantine. Abad was asymptomatic and he's apparently cleared all the necessary protocols, and is ready to return to the field. The 34-year-old has had an interesting last few years:

• 2017: 3.30 ERA (3.68 FIP) in 43.2 innings with the Red Sox
• 2018: 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension and independent league
• 2019: Mostly Triple-A with the Giants (six runs in 13 big innings)

Abad has an uncommon pitch mix (sinker/curveball) and he's been quite a bit more effective against lefties (.289 wOBA with 25.2 K% and 5.3 BB%) than righties (.325 wOBA with 16.1 K% and 10.5 BB%) throughout his career. I don't think this is about replacing Luis Avilan in the big league bullpen or Tyler Lyons at the alternate site. I think the Yankees are replacing Dan Otero, who is on the restricted list for an unknown reason. It just so happens Abad is a lefty and Otero is a righty. As you can imagine, the list of pitchers with MLB experience who were released during Summer Camp isn't great: Abad, Brett Cecil (who topped out at 81 mph in intrasquad games), Ryan Cook, Francisco Liriano, Bud Norris, Hector Santiago, and Anthony Swarzak. Liriano is the big name there but name value doesn't mean much. When it comes to picking up spare part players, I trust the Yankees implicitly at this point. They've turned too many random and seemingly inconsequential pickups into useful (or better) pieces to not give them the benefit of the doubt. Aaron Boone called Abad a "capable guy" and added "we'll see at some point" whether he can help the team, and that's about all there is to say about the signing. Maybe he can help, maybe not. For now he'll go to Scranton and throw simulated games, and be ready in case a need arises. (The Yankees still have only 58 players on their 60-man player pool. Otero going on the restricted list removes him.)

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Donovan Osborne. By request, our next random Yankee is the pitcher who was given No. 46 only two months after Andy Pettitte signed with the Astros. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Mark Bellhorn, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Glenallen Hill, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Lawton, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. The Cardinals made Osborne the ninth overall pick in 1990 and he finished fifth in the NL Rookie of the Year voting in 1992. He missed the entire 1994 season with injuries but was very good in 1993, 1995, and 1996 before injuries limited him to 193.1 total innings from 1997-1999. More injuries kept Osborne out the entire 2000-01 seasons, then he made 11 appearances with the Cubs in 2002, then he got hurt again and missed 2003. The Yankees gave Osborne, then 35, a minor league contract in Feb. 2004 and let him compete for a roster spot in Spring Training. "It’s a good opportunity. It’s overwhelming to pitch for the Yankees," he told George King that March. Osborne pitched well in Spring Training, so much so that he was considered a fifth starter candidate after Jon Lieber got hurt in camp. That door closed when Osborne got rocked for seven runs in two innings by the Hanshin Tigers in his final spring outing -- the Yankees opened 2004 with a two-game series against the Devil Rays in Tokyo, and they played a few exhibition games against Japanese clubs beforehand -- relegating him to the bullpen. Osborne was a long man more than a left-on-left matchup guy and he was the epitome of a mop up guy. He made seven appearances in the first five weeks of the season and the Yankees were trailing every time Joe Torre called his name. The average deficit was 3.6 runs and only once were the Yankees behind fewer than three runs. A low-leverage long man to the max. Osborne pitched well in that role too, throwing 11.1 innings with a 3.18 ERA. That includes three innings of one-run ball against the Red Sox on April 17th and four innings of one-run ball against the Athletics on May 4th. Jose Contreras pitched his way to Triple-A in May and that May 4th outing convinced the Yankees to put Osborne in the rotation. "I have played baseball my whole life and was a starter, mainly. It’s really nothing new except that it’s with the Yankees. I am happy to get the opportunity," he told King. The move into the rotation did not go well. At all. Osborne made two starts in pinstripes:

• May 9th at Mariners: 1.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 0 K, 1 HR
• May 15th vs. Mariners: 5 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 0 K, 0 HR

Osborne always had a great changeup, but at age 35 and after years of shoulder problems, his sinker sat in the mid-to-upper-80s, and that didn't play multiple times through a lineup. The two dud starts brought an end to Osborne's latest comeback attempt. With a 7.13 ERA and opponents having tagged him for a .347/.405/.556 batting line, the Yankees released Osborne on May 27th. He spent the rest of the season in Triple-A with the Padres, then spent the 2005-08 seasons bouncing between Triple-A with various organizations and the independent leagues. Osborne was the first player to wear No. 46 after Pettitte left but he is not the last Yankee to wear No. 46 other than Pettitte. Darrell May, Alan Embree, Aaron Guiel, and Scott Erickson all wore it from 2005-06. 

6. Rapid fire thoughts: After failing to work something out with Pittsburgh and Baltimore, the Blue Jays will play their home games at their Triple-A affiliate's ballpark in Buffalo this year, the team announce. They will play "home" series against the Nationals in Washington and the Phillies in Philadelphia this week while the necessary upgrades are made to the ballpark. The Yankees will make two trips to Buffalo: Sept. 7th to 9th and Sept. 21st to 24th. Matt Eddy did the legwork last year and found Sahlen Field in Buffalo is a home run ballpark but offensively neutral overall. It is conducive to homers but it suppresses doubles and triples, similar to Yankee Stadium. It's also similar to Rogers Centre in that regard, so I guess road games against the Blue Jays won't feature a huge change in run-scoring environment ... J.A. Happ and the Yankees still have not resolved his vesting option situation. "It has been a process that we are trying to resolve. Unfortunately, it is what it is type of deal. I am going to do my best and sort of just pitch," Happ said during a conference call over the weekend. MLB and the MLBPA agreed to prorated vesting option criteria a few weeks ago, but Happ falls into a special subset of players whose vesting option may be reworked. If the two sides can't agree to terms, it could go to arbitration. Kinda weird this hasn't been resolved even though the season has started and Happ is (theoretically) accumulating stats. but it doesn't seem like there is any concern or animosity. Under the prorated plan, Happ would need to make 10 starts or throw 61.1 innings to lock in a $17M salary next year. Gotta think the Yankees want to avoid that at all costs ... And finally, something probably only I care about: Danilo Valiente, the Yankees batting practice pitcher extraordinaire, is not with the team this year. Either he opted out or the Yankees told him to stay home for health reasons, according to Marly Rivera. Valiente, 54, played with Orlando Hernandez in Cuba and came to the United States in 2006. He joined the Yankees as a minor league coaching assistant in 2007 after hounding former farm system head Mark Newman for a job, and he joined the big league team full-time in 2014. Valiente threw to Aaron Judge during the 2017 Home Run Derby and is absolutely beloved by the players. David Waldstein profiled him back in 2014. Check it out.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. Now that the season is underway, I think I'm going to turn the "Remembering a random Yankee" series into a Tuesday feature. Twice a week during the season feels like overkill. So Tuesday for the random Yankees and Friday for the mailbag. Sound good?)