July 24th, 2020: Opening Day, Expanded Postseason, Betts, Mailbag

Every game this season is equivalent to 2.7 games in a 162-game season, so the Yankees are currently 2.7-0. Aside from the annoying rain delay, I'm not sure we could've scripted a better Opening Day win. Gerrit Cole tossed a complete game one-hitter and the offense banged against a three-time Cy Young winner. Max Scherzer allowed four earned runs last night. He allowed four earned runs in his previous four Opening Day starts combined. Let's get to today's thoughts as Mother Nature gives us the perfect screen grab to encapsulate the current state of baseball:

1. Opening Day thoughts. The second batter Gerrit Cole faced as a Yankee took him into the second deck, but it was smooth sailing after that. He retired 14 of the final 16 batters he faced -- the two baserunners were a walk and a hit-by-pitch -- and finished with just the one hit allowed in five innings. He struck out five and held the Nationals to an 88.5 mph average exit velocity on 11 balls in play. I didn't think Cole was especially sharp. Only nine of the 18 batters he faced saw a first pitch strike and five saw a hitter friendly 2-0 or 3-1 count. Cole was missing up with his fastball consistently in the first and second innings ...

... which is perhaps an indication he was overthrowing and amped up in his first start as a Yankee, but he settled down and carved through an admittedly weak Nationals lineup*. Mike Mussina used to say there are 10 starts a year where you have it all working, 10 starts where you have nothing, and 10 starts where you're just okay and have to figure it out. This looked like one of those figure it out starts for Cole. Once he settled in, he had the fastball consistently at the top of the zone and he was landing his breaking balls for called strikes, and using them to getting chases out of the zone. I wouldn't say Cole was dominant, and yet one hit and one run in five innings. He's so, so good. "I had a blast. I had so much fun," Cole said after the game ... Had the season started on time Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton would not have been on the Opening Day roster. The shutdown gave them time to get healthy and allowed them to be in the lineup Thursday, and they were the offense against Max Scherzer. They went 4-for-6 with a double and Stanton's two-run homer. The rest of the Yankees went 2-for-16 with nine strikeouts in the rain-shortened win. Judge had no trouble with the velocity. His first inning single came on a 96.7 mph fastball and his third inning double came on a 93.9 mph fastball. Both were pulled to left field too, so he got around on them quick. Good to see after the rib and neck issues. Scherzer smartened up and gave Judge nothing but sliders in his third at-bat, and caught him looking at strike three at the knees. Giancarlo, meanwhile, joined Babe Ruth and Danny Tartabull as the only Yankees to hit home runs in their first plate appearance on Opening Day in multiple seasons (per James Smyth). I am 100% here for a Judge and Stanton two-man wrecking crew this year. Judge wins MVP and Stanton wins Comeback Player of the Year. Let's do it ... The (only) Tyler Wade fan has logged on. Worked a walk and scored from first on Judge's double in his first at-bat then pushed a bunt for a hit in his second at-bat, setting up a run-scoring rally. Wade was at the plate with runners on the corners with one out when the umpires called for the tarp. He's (probably) never going to be a regular for the Yankees but his legs and his glove can help them, and his speed complements a power heavy lineup. "It's one thing to have speed, but he's a great baserunner. If he can get on base enough, he's a guy that can really affect the game. With his versatility, he has a chance to be really valuable for us this year," Aaron Boone said last night ... Pretty sure Gary Sanchez will have nightmares about Scherzer the next few weeks. He saw 13 pitches in his three at-bats, swung at 10, and missed with nine. Zoinks. Don't worry, Gary. They're not all like Max. On the bright side, Cole credited Sanchez will helping him through the early innings. "Gary guided the ship as well as you could," Cole said ... And finally, are we really going to do two-hour rain delays all year? All the health and safety protocols are based on keeping everyone away from the each other when the players are not on the field, and we're going to cram them all inside during long delays? Come on. Let's use a little common sense. If the forecast indicates the rain will pass quickly, wait it out. When the forecast says it's going to rain pretty much all night like last night, just bang it. No need to keep everyone around longer than necessary during a pandemic (that includes all the ancillary people at the ballpark who make baseball happen).

* The last World Series champion with a starting lineup that weak the following Opening Day was who, the fire sale Marlins? ZiPS projects only one of those nine Nationals for a .340 wOBA this year. The Yankees have six players at that number.

2. 16-team postseason. Literally hours before first pitch last night MLB and the MLBPA agreed to an expanded 16-team postseason format. The press release went out less than hour after the game started. Eight teams per league in a bracket style tournament. It feels rushed and slapped together because of the timing, but MLB and the MLBPA discussed an expanded postseason format during the shutdown, so the legwork had already been done. "The opportunity to add playoff games in this already-abbreviated season makes sense for fans, the league and Players. We hope it will result in highly competitive pennant races as well as exciting additional playoff games to the benefit of the industry and all involved heading into next year," MLBPA chief Tony Clark said in a statement. Here are the details:

• Every first and second place team makes it. Makes sense with the regional schedule. The teams with the next best records get the seventh and eighth seeds.
• First round (Wild Card Series) is a best-of-three series. Second round (LDS) is a best-of-five and the final two rounds (LCS and World Series) are best-of-seven.
• There's no system for division winners to pick their opponents or anything like that. It'll be straight 1-8 seeding (1 vs. 8, 2 vs. 7, 3 vs. 6, 4 vs. 5).
• There will be no tiebreaker games. Not even for the eighth seed. The first tiebreaker is head-to-head record and down the line they'll go until it's resolved. 
• $50M pool for players. Normally the player pool is made up entirely of gate revenue, so with no fans, the players would've played the postseason for free this year. 

Last year's postseason pool was a little more than $80M. Getting $50M during a shortened season with no fans, even while playing a few more postseason games, seems like a pretty good deal for the union. It's worth noting the MLBPA proposed exactly that postseason format during the return to play negotiations, except they were willing to have an expanded postseason in 2020 and 2021. The two sides agreed to 16 teams, but MLB offered a $25M pool and the MLBPA countered with $50M. In the end the union got their $50M and they only agreed to expanded postseason for 2020, so it remains a bargaining chip for next year's Collective Bargaining Agreement talks. The MLBPA got full prorated pay, the $50M postseason pool, and retained the right to file a grievance. Not bad. Anyway, I'm cool with an expanded postseason this year. It's a weird 60-game season, so it's the perfect time to experiment, and the expanded postseason gives us a better chance to have a representative field. The eventual World Series champion Nationals were 19-31 after 50 games last year. Now a championship-caliber team has a better chance to overcome a slow start, which is good news for the Yankees. The bad news is the best-of-three Wild Card Series means two bad nights and you're done, not matter how well you played during the regular season. It's not quite as treacherous as the Wild Card Game but it's close. Also, there's no incentive to win the division now. You get homefield advantage -- the entire Wild Card Series is played at the higher seed's ballpark -- and that's not nothing, but there's no huge benefit to winning the division now. There's no Wild Card Game to avoid. I don't like that part but what can you do? For one season, I'm fine with the expanded postseason even though I think it ultimately hurts the Yankees because they're arguably the best team in the game, and now they have to deal with that best-of-three series. The shorter the series, the more likely we see an upset. (For what it's worth, FanGraphs had the Yankees at 72.9% to make the postseason and 10.9% to win the World Series under the old format. It's now 91.4% and 10.0% with the new format, respectively, and 93.3% and 10.6% following last night's win.)

3. Mookie's extension. Mookie Betts re-signing with the Dodgers always felt like the most likely outcome to me. I just didn't expect it to happen this quickly. Earlier this week Betts and the Dodgers agreed to a massive 12-year extension worth $365 million. The contract kicks in next season and runs through 2032. 2032! I know that's just math, but still. Good gravy am I getting old. "The market wasn’t what I was worried about. Just fair value. That’s been my No. 1 thing for my whole career is just the value, and that’s it. Once we got to that point and being somewhere I loved being, it was a match just perfect," Betts said during his conference call. In terms of new dollars, it is the richest contract in baseball history:

1. Mookie Betts: $365M
2. Mike Trout: $360M
3. Bryce Harper: $330M
4. Giancarlo Stanton: $325M
5. Gerrit Cole: $324M

Trout's $360M comes across 10 years. Mookie's $365M comes across 12 years and that's a pretty huge difference. It's the largest total guarantee ever but it is only the 12th highest average annual value ($30.2M). Hell, it's only the third highest average annual value on the Dodgers, behind Clayton Kershaw and David Price (both $31M). Look at it this way: Betts is two years younger than Cole and he's a safer -- "safer" -- investment as a position player because there's so much inherent injury risk with pitchers, yet he received a little more than 80% the average annual value. It's a great deal for Betts ($365M is $365M, after all) and a great deal for the Dodgers, but probably not the best sign for the free agent market going forward. Mookie is 27 and a super elite player, yet he had to take two additional years to narrowly beat the total dollars record, and it's not even a top 10 average annual value. Also, Ken Rosenthal reports $115M of the $365M is deferred, lowering the present day value of the contract to $306.7M according to the MLBPA's calculations. The contract includes some player friendly terms -- Ron Blum reports Betts gets a massive $65M signing bonus (paid out from 2021-35) and the contract includes $17.5M base salaries in 2021 and 2022, so Mookie will forfeit less pay in the event of another work stoppage (pandemic or labor related) -- but, by and large, this is quite a bit less than what I think Mookie was looking at prior to the shutdown. The average annual value is comfortably below the $35M or so elite players (Cole, Trout, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, etc.) are getting these days and I think the fact Betts, who would have been the unquestioned No. 1 free agent this winter and arguably the best free agent since Alex Rodriguez way back in the day, jumped on the deal now rather than test the open market is telling. He passed up multiple extension offers from the Red Sox over the years because he wanted to maximize his earning potential, then he took a contract that is technically record-setting but also not really. If Mookie is avoiding the open market and taking what is a discount compared to the money thrown around this past offseason, what does it mean for other free agents? Not good things, I think. As rich as it is, the Betts contract is the first real piece of evidence we have that the free agent market will be depressed this offseason and possibly beyond. (As far as the Yankees are concerned, the Betts deal doesn't really change anything. He's permanently out of the AL East, so that's good, but I never expected them to pursue him this offseason. Hard to see them taking on another massive contract at this point. Also, Mookie's contract didn't move the salary bar for Aaron Judge or Gleyber Torres, nor does it make it more likely Giancarlo Stanton opts out. The deal has little immediate impact on the Yankees.)

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Glenallen Hill. Our next random Yankee comes by request and is responsible for one of my all-time favorite baseball highlights. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Mark Bellhorn, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Lawton, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Hill broke into the big leagues with the Blue Jays in 1989 and he was a journeyman who suited up for five different teams from 1989-2000, including the Cubs twice. He was a part-time player on a bad Cubs team in 2000, hitting .262/.303/.494 with 11 home runs through 64 games. The Yankees were short on power that season -- they were 20th in baseball with 100 home runs at the All-Star break, if you can believe that -- and they were trying to three-peat, so Brian Cashman was aggressive prior to the trade deadline. He added David Justice on June 20th, Denny Neagle on July 12th, and Hill on July 21st. Minor league pitchers Ben Ford and Oswaldo Mairena went to Chicago in the trade. (Ford and Mairena combined for a 7.03 ERA in 80.2 career big league innings.) "Glenallen has got some serious power. He'll be a threat at the plate every time up there. We're hoping we'll get more success out of Glenallen than when Jimmy (Leyritz) was here," Cashman told Liz Robbins after the trade. More success is exactly what the Yankees got. Hill went deep in his first at-bat as a Yankee (video) and four days later he socked a pinch-hit go-ahead grand slam in the eighth inning against the Twins. Jeff Nelson and Mariano Rivera turned a 4-2 lead into a 5-4 deficit in the eighth inning, then Hill put the Yankees back on top. "I was looking for a sacrifice fly. Pinch-hit grand slams aren’t easy to come by," Joe Torre told George King. The homers didn't stop. Hill hit 11 home runs in his first 18 games as a Yankee, including six homers in six games at one point in mid-August. One was a broken bat homer (video). His pace slowed a bit near the end of the season -- Hill went deep only five times in his final 22 games -- but the Yankees brought him in to provide power and power he did provide. Hill forced his way into the everyday lineup and authored a .333/.378/.735 batting line with 16 home runs in 40 games following the trade. No player in franchise history has hit more home runs while batting no more than 150 times in a single season:

1. 2000 Glenallen Hill: 16 HR in 143 PA
2. 2018 Luke Voit: 14 HR in 148 PA
3. 1979 Oscar Gamble: 11 HR in 126 PA
4. 1998 Shane Spencer: 10 HR in 73 PA
5. 1988 Ken Phelps: 10 HR in 127 PA

Hill's success did not carry over into the postseason -- he went 1-for-17 in October -- and he was relegated to the bench in the ALCS and World Series. Still, he got a ring out of it, and the 2000 Yankees were easily the weakest team of the dynasty era. They went 87-74 and won the AL East by 2.5 games, and were three games behind the Wild Card spot. Without Hill, the Yankees may not have qualified for the postseason. "It just feels like I’m part of something special. I feel I deserve to be in a situation like this, having persevered through my career," Hill told Barry Baum that August. I thought Hill became a free agent after the season and the two sides went their separate ways, but no. The Yankees exercised the $1.5M option in Hill's contract and he reported to Spring Training in line to start in left field. Chuck Knoblauch's throwing issues persisted, however, forcing the Yankees to move him to left field and slide Justice to DH full-time. With no more room in the outfield for Hill, the Yankees traded him to the Angels for minor league outfielder Darren Blakely, who never reached the big leagues, at the end of camp. "I think he was just happy that something was done. He's been hanging around here for a week or so knowing somebody was going to go," Torre told the Associated Press after the trade. Hill's agent, Tom Reich, added: "Other changes in the Yankees' lineup have created a crowd at certain positions that obviously required some moves to reach a functional 25-man roster. This a guy who made a huge contribution to last year's championship but that's baseball in the new millennium." Hill, then 36, went 9-for-66 (.136) with one home run in 16 games with Anaheim. He was released in June and never played baseball again, though he started a long and successful coaching career with the Rockies in 2003. He spent several seasons as their Triple-A manager, including 2019, and was their first base coach from 2007-12. In 2007, Hill became the first coach to wear a helmet on the field following the death of Mike Coolbaugh. "I had thought about it but didn't want to put it into play. Then I heard about Mike and it brought a lot of emotions, for his family, his children, safety, how many close calls I've had. It just makes sense," he told the Associated Press at the time.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB has shut down access to the video room this season, reports Tom Verducci. No one will be allowed in to review at-bats or see whether a certain pitch was a ball or a strike. The decision was made for health and safety reasons, Verducci says, but it also comes after the sign-stealing reckoning. MLB was looking at ways to limit video room access over the winter and the pandemic allows them to close it entirely. Verducci says each player will be given a tablet preloaded with information and video scouting reports to look at during games, but it won't be connected to the internet and won't have access to current game video. I'd rather cut off video access entirely (watch as much as you want before and after games, but none during the game) but this is a good compromise, I guess ... J.J. Cooper has an update on MLB's negotiations with Minor League Baseball. There's talk about flipping the High-A and Low-A leagues, so High-A Tampa would become Low-A Tampa and Low-A Charleston would become High-A Charleston. Among other things, that would allow clubs with Florida State League affiliates to house their Low-A affiliate and rookie ball affiliate in the same complex, so players wouldn't have travel when promoted. Also, Cooper says there's talk of playing the first half of the FSL season in Florida and the second half elsewhere, including what is now the NY-Penn League, home of the Staten Island Yankees. The FSL never draws well and it would keep more minor league teams afloat. Splitting the season between two locations seems kinda farfetched, but flipping the Low-A and High-A leagues does make sense. I hate the contraction plan but I am all for making the minors more sensible geographically, and that's one way to do it ... And finally, Jasson Dominguez posted a workout video the other day. His physique can best be described as "create-a-player" at this point. That kid looks like no other 17-year-old I've seen in my life.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Chris asks: Voit appears to be the Opening Day first baseman, but should he be? And who do you think finishes the season as the everyday first baseman? It feels like a very strong platoon will be in order.

The Yankees have a good problem at first base. Luke Voit has hit .280/.384/.517 (141 wRC+) with 35 homers in 658 plate appearances as a Yankee and that includes his unproductive second half while herniated last year. Mike Ford has proven everything he could possibly prove in Triple-A and owns a .259/.350/.599 (134 wRC+) line in limited big league time.

A straight platoon is an easy answer even though both guys had reverse splits last season:

• Ford: 101 wRC+ vs. RHP and 248 wRC+ vs. LHP
• Voit: 131 wRC+ vs. RHP and 110 wRC+ vs. LHP

The sample sizes are small and I don't buy those numbers as their true platoon talent levels, especially in Ford's case. He always bludgeoned righties in the minors but had a harder time with lefties. Ford was unreal as a pinch-hitter last season (5-for-11 with a double and two home runs), so maybe that's a reason to keep him on the bench? That sample though.

Because we've seen Voit be very productive for long stretches of time -- he was sitting on a .280/.393/.509 (140 wRC+) batting line when he first landed on the injured list last year -- I'm inclined to stick with him initially. Should he stumble, then give Ford a shot. It's too bad one of these guys can't fake another position. They both belong in the everyday lineup.

Kevin asks: Do we know what the Scranton camp will look like? Watching Garcia or Schmidt pitch made me wonder how they will be game ready in the middle of a pennant race if they have just been doing intrasquad games.

As far as I know, it's going to look a lot like Summer Camp. Workouts and intrasquad games. The alternate site players won't be able to play other teams, so the best they can do is play each other. It's hardly ideal but I'm not sure what else they can do. Because no fans, media, or scouts will be allowed in, we'll have no idea what's going on in Scranton. Who is pitching when, that sorta thing. That's kinda important when trying to figure out who is available to be called up. Alternate site players are stuck playing each other and we'll fly blind. (Luis Medina threw a simulated game yesterday according to Miguel Yajure on Instagram.)

Michael asks: Is there a rational reason why the Yankees have an off day immediately after opening day this year? I always thought that was done so that if there was a rainout, the people who bought opening day tickets would still be able to go to opening day. But with no fans this year, why not make the off-day Sunday? Which would make it more likely it could be used for a makeup game (and if not would give the yankees an off day as they travel).

I can't think of a good reason. The Dodgers and Giants were the other nationally televised game Thursday night and they'll be back at it tonight. They don't have an off-day. Maybe the Yankees and Nationals were originally scheduled to start the season Friday and MLB flexed the game to Thursday for the national broadcast? I guess it's possible but it's kinda hard to believe that's a decision that snuck up on MLB. I mean, Yankees vs. World Series champs? Pretty obvious Opening Day national broadcast there. I don't get the off-day today either. Whatever.

Ray asks: With no fans in the stands, what will MLB do with all of those foul balls? Shame for them to go to waste.

Teams employees go around and pick up any foul (or home run) balls, and I assume they're put back into circulation after being disinfected and all that. The Athletics were the first team to introduce cardboard cutout fans and, as part of the promotion, if your cutout gets hit with a foul ball, they'll send you the ball. Not sure whether any other teams are doing that, but it's pretty cool. Otherwise all those baseballs are retrieved and presumably reused. Probably saves a nice chunk of money. There were an average of 53.8 foul balls per game in the first half last year. Call it 50 foul balls per game across 30 home games and teams are saving approximately 1,500 balls this season. It adds up.

(Send your mailbag questions to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)