July 3rd, 2020: Summer Camp, Minors, What We've Missed, Mailbag

Intake testing is complete and Summer Camp at Yankee Stadium officially begins later today. The Yankees will work out in staggered groups and they'll use all of Yankee Stadium to remain socially distant, so pitchers may do their flat ground work in the Great Hall. "The reason we're here now doesn't change from our goal at the start of Spring Training. We want to be champions," Aaron Boone said during a conference call earlier this week. I'm ready for you to break my heart again, baseball. Let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Summer Camp update. Informal workouts started at Yankee Stadium yesterday with Gerrit Cole (three innings) and Adam Ottavino (two innings) facing Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Luke Voit in live batting practice. Here's some video. Pitching coach Matt Blake said Cole was sitting 95-99 mph and is "pretty close to game speed ... I think he feels good about where he is." Oh how I've missed actual baseball news. Anyway, Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman held start of Summer Camp conference calls earlier this week. Let's hit the important stuff.

No opt outs (but a few late arrivals)

So far five players (Ian Desmond, Mike Leake, Joe and Tyson Ross, Ryan Zimmerman) and several coaches have opted out of the season. Cashman confirmed no Yankees personnel has opted out, however. That could change in the future -- "If that changes we will adjust the roster," Cashman said -- but, right now, everyone is on-board, including Boone, who had open heart surgery in 2009 and presumably qualifies as high risk. “Really, no hesitation. I feel like health-wise I am in a really good place ... As far as going back to work and getting back into this, I don’t have a fear of it or any trepidation. I am excited to get back at it and will do all I can for our players and everyone in the organization. Right now my mindset is that I am excited to get back with a group of guys that I have a ton of respect for," Boone said. Although no one has opted out, Cashman did say several players may be late to Summer Camp because of travel issues. He didn't name names but it has to be some of the players coming back from Latin American countries because Masahiro Tanaka is in New York and went through the intake testing this week. The Latin American guys are the only other players on the 58-man roster who live outside the United States (as far as I know). "I do not expect all our players to be here because some of them have more challenges than others in terms of where they are coming from. Departures from certain countries are more easy than others ... In terms of a full complement of a roster it is to be determined," Cashman said. Every team is dealing with the same logistical issues. It'll get resolved soon enough and everyone will be in camp eventually.

Taxi squad heading to Scranton

The Yankees will indeed use Scranton's PNC Field as their alternate training site rather than Trenton or Staten Island, Cashman confirmed. They needed MLB's approval because Scranton is more than 100 miles away from Yankee Stadium, though the extra 30 miles or so was never likely to be a dealbreaker. PNC Field was extensively renovated in 2012 and it is the most state of the art facility in the system, and one of the most state of the art in all the minors. It made sense to train there as long as MLB approved. The Yankees are still in the process of getting the park up to code with the COVID-19 regulations -- "Scranton, which will be our alternate facility, will not be ready for a good 7-10 days or more," Cashman told Meredith Marakovits earlier this week (video link) -- though it'll be ready soon. J.J. Cooper reports non-40-man roster players at the alternate site will be paid as Triple-A players. 40-man roster players have split contracts that pay them one salary at the big league level and another salary in the minors. Non-40-man roster players are subject to the level minimums with raises based on experience at the level. The Triple-A minimum is $500 a week this year. Kyle Holder, Max McDowell, Clarke Schmidt, and Alex Vizcaino are the only non-40-man roster players on the 58-man roster who have never played above Double-A (Vizcaino has never played above High-A), so the $500 a week salary represents a raise from last year. It ain't much, but it's better than the $400 weekly stipend and their salaries in previous years. Also, I should note alternate site workouts will be closed to scouts (and the public). For the first time in a while, the gap between what teams know about their players and what other teams know about their players will be fairly significant. Not sure if that's a good thing or a bad thing, but it is a thing. Could make trade discussions interesting for the foreseeable future.

Possible exhibition games

Teams will be limited to workouts and intrasquad games for most of Summer Camp, though they can schedule up to three exhibition games against another team. Cashman confirmed he has spoken to his counterparts with other Northeast teams about the possibility of exhibition games. "If we do something, it’d probably be with the Mets. We’re clearly not very interested in playing on a road trip, if we can avoid it," Cashman said. The schedule may not allow it, however, and because the Yankees are tentatively scheduled to open the season in Washington -- I can't blame MLB for scheduling the Yankees vs. the defending World Series champs on Opening Day -- it's possible the Yankees could head down early and play a few exhibition games against the Nationals before Opening Day. Cashman noted the exhibition games are not just about the players preparing for the season. They're also dry runs for all the team and stadium personnel who have to operate within the COVID-19 protocols. It takes a village, this sport. I'm sure the Yankees and Mets will work something out and play at least one game in each other's park. It only makes sense and both sides benefit. Hopefully the games are televised. Broadcasters are going to need some practice with their new reality too, right? Right. (The Yankees say the YES Network will provide the media with daily B-roll footage from Summer Camp workouts and I'm sure those clips will be available many places online.)

Injury updates

Boone and Cashman provided a few injury updates, some of which are non-updates. James Paxton (back surgery) is game ready. No issues there and we knew that already. Hicks (Tommy John surgery) and Judge (rib fracture) are progressing with their rehab work, but getting into game shape in the three weeks between now and Opening Day could be a challenge. Judge took five rounds of batting practice earlier this week, according to Brendan Kuty, and he faced Cole in live batting practice yesterday, so it seems things are going well on that front. “Are they healthy? I think they’re physically good. It just comes down to are they prepared for the pounding from Game 1, and having the comfort level that your manager and staff are going to want that they can consistently rely on them in that lineup? I’m not saying the answer to that is no, but I always like to give myself a little bit of latitude and wiggle room by protecting ourselves because it’s better to under-promise and over-perform, especially in this unique environment that we find ourselves in," Cashman said. As for Giancarlo Stanton (calf), Cashman said he's ready to DH but maybe not ready to play the outfield. He didn't do much outfield work during the shutdown because they didn't want to risk a setback. "I feel that Stanton would be a legitimate choice for that DH role starting from the beginning ... Again, the game reps and how he would look and properly be prepared in the three weeks situation in a legitimate outfield (spot), I think that is to be determined. And just like the strong physical demand of running the bases, even though he is a DH, to make sure that the conditioning is 100% complete. I think the next three weeks will determine that, but there is optimism at the very least the DH spot could be in play for us," Cashman said. At this point, I am totally cool with keeping Stanton as the full-time DH this season, especially since the universal DH means the Yankees wouldn't lose his bat in National League parks. Keep him healthy and let him rake. Worry about him playing the outfield next year, when we have a (hopefully) normal season. Clint Frazier and Mike Tauchman are fine outfield depth options, and we could include Miguel Andujar in that mix too. "It's something he could absolutely do. Early signs show me that he'll be able to handle that versatility," Boone said about Andujar's outfield play in Spring Training. If they have to bring Hicks and Judge (and Stanton) along slowly early in the season, so be it. They have the depth to make it work. “(Judge) has been doing all his physical activities. Now it comes down to game reps, facing live pitching, and seeing if he is in game shape. I think there is optimism that if everything works out in Spring Training 2.0 he has a shot to be ready to go. He has checked all the boxes so far and it is optimistic that it is possible that he would be ready to go by Opening Day," Cashman said.

COVID-19 injured list

MLB and the MLBPA agree COVID-19 is a "non-work-related" injury and thus subject to the privacy guidelines in the Collective Bargaining Agreement. For baseball injuries, Article XIII(G)(4) of the CBA says the team can announce the nature of the injury, the treatment, and the expected length of recovery. For non-baseball medical issues, the team "may disclose only the fact that a medical condition is preventing the Player from rendering services to the Club and the anticipated length of the Player’s absence from the Club." That means we won't be told when or why a player is placed on the COVID-19 list (there are reasons other than a positive test that could land a player on the COVID-19 list). He'll be replaced on the active roster and that's it. “Somebody would not be available, they might be down and out, but we might not be able to speak to why. It would be a speculating circumstance," Cashman said. I totally get the privacy concerns. I also think the inevitable speculation by fans and the media (which is already happening) will create more headaches than simply disclosing the circumstances. Announcing it would allow MLB to control the message. I don't think we should stigmatize COVID-19. On the contrary, I would like to see MLB use its platform to educate fans about the virus, like Cubs pitching coach Tommy Hottovy did earlier this week. Players with "non-work-related" injuries are free to discuss their condition publicly and I hope anyone who lands on the COVID-19 list does so. Leaving it open to speculation is a recipe for bad news. Also, Joel Sherman reports MLB and the MLBPA are planning to report testing results throughout the season, likely weekly or biweekly. They'll only announce numbers (total tests, positive tests, etc.), not names (duh). The cynic in me worries MLB will massage the numbers to make it appear they have everything under control so they can continue the season and generate revenue. For example, they might tell us there were 12 positive tests around the league this past week while omitting that 10 of the 12 were on one team, or that one was a player and the other 11 were older coaches. Either would be a pretty big problem! Again, I totally understand and respect the privacy concerns. I also think the nature of the pandemic and the very public nature of the job necessitates a little more transparency. For everyone's sake, I hope players (and personnel) who land on the COVID-19 list aren't afraid to talk about it. 

2. No minors in 2020. As expected, there will be no minor league baseball this season. The official announcement was made earlier this week. "These are unprecedented times for our country and our organization as this is the first time in our history that we've had a summer without Minor League Baseball played. While this is a sad day for many, this announcement removes the uncertainty surrounding the 2020 season and allows our teams to begin planning for an exciting 2021 season of affordable family entertainment," MiLB CEO Pat O'Conner said in a statement. It has been clear for weeks there would be no minor league baseball this year but that doesn't make the announcement any less sad. So many smaller communities around the country are losing out on baseball and many players will now go 18 months between games*. Other players will simply never play again because COVID-19 will accelerate the timetable on MLB's minor league contraction plan -- the contraction plan is a cost-cutting move broached by former Astros GM Jeff Luhnow (it's known as the Houston Plan within the game) -- and eliminate roster spots and thus opportunity. "We are in dire straits ... It’s north of half (of MiLB teams) who could either have to sell (or close their doors without help). This is the perfect storm. There are many teams that are not liquid, not solvent. I could see (the economic impact) lingering into 2022, 2023 easily. In some cases, possibly a little longer," O'Conner said during a conference call earlier this week, adding many minor league teams don't have the cash on hand to reimburse ticket holders and sponsors. MLB's master plan is reducing the minors from 160 teams to 120 teams, and, as a result of the pandemic, MiLB is now onboard with the plan. Several teams will have to close their doors now anyway, and working with MLB at least gives MiLB a say in the matter. They can push for financial assistance for the teams that remain and have a seat at the table when realignment and reclassification decisions are made. The contraction plan is likely to eliminate the short season leagues and leave every organization with four full season affiliates (Triple-A, Double-A, High-A, Low-A) and one rookie ball affiliate. That would put the Pulaski Yankees and Staten Island Yankees in the contraction crosshairs, though it's possible the franchises could be moved to other leagues rather than eliminated entirely. I guess we'll find out soon enough. Mostly though, I'm just sad there won't be a minor league season. Sad for the fans that lose out on baseball, sad for the players who don't get a chance to play and advance their careers, sad for the non-players who can't use the minors to get their foot in the door (coaches, broadcasters, etc.), sad for the franchises that will have to close their doors permanently, and sad MLB will jump on this opportunity to shrink the minors and save money no matter the long-term damage to the sport. For whatever reason MLB's official stance has become "less baseball is better" the last few months, and I don't see how that is a good thing. "There will be significant attrition but Minor League Baseball will be stronger on the backside of this," O'Conner said and gosh, I sure hope he's right.

* J.J. Cooper reports minor leaguers can play independent ball this summer with their MLB team's approval, though that won't help many players because independent leagues are canceling their seasons too. The Long Island Ducks are arguably the most high-profile independent team in the country and they recently canceled their season. More likely, there will be a lot -- a *lot* -- of minor leaguers who try to play winter ball this year. Roster spots are a finite resource, so good luck securing one.

3. What we've missed: June. Another month has passed with no baseball. June 20th was the first time since at least 1868 there was no professional baseball played on the first day of summer. Fortunately, MLB has a plan to begin the 2020 season later this month. I truly hope they're able to complete the season safely. Here's what we missed in March, April, and May. Now here's what we didn't get to see in June.

German's return

Domingo German still has to serve the final 63 games of his 81-game suspension and, during a normal 162-game season, he would have been eligible to return on Friday, June 5th. The Yankees were scheduled to open a three-game home series with the Rays that night. Because German was pretty good last season and because the Yankees probably would've needed pitching at that point (because every team needs more pitching), my guess is the Yankees would've brought German back as a starter and inserted him into the rotation right away. Even if the top five starters were pitching well -- James Paxton was due back in May, remember -- they could have used German to give everyone a little breather at midseason. One way or the other, he would have rejoined the roster once his suspension ended. The Yankees would've come up with a way to use him. Now German will be a non-factor in 2020.

Cole's return to Pittsburgh, maybe

The Yankees were scheduled to play the NL Central during interleague play this season and they would've been in Pittsburgh for a quick little two-game midweek series on June 16th and 17th. It would've been their first trip to Pittsburgh since 2017 -- I remember Aaron Judge hitting this home run that series -- and it would have been Gerrit Cole's first trip to his former stomping grounds as a visiting player. Cole did face the Pirates once with the Astros, though that was a home game in Houston. This would've been his first trip back to PNC Park since the trade. Had he pitched one of those two games, I think the reception would've been warm. Cole was a key member of those 2013-15 Pirates teams that returned to the postseason and it's not like he forced his way out. My read on things is Pirates fans are more upset with the team for not getting the most out of Cole (and Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton) than they are with Cole himself. Also, the Yankees would've played a three-game home series against the Cubs last month (June 26th to 28th). That would've been fun even with the Cubbies fading out of contention in recent years. The Yankees last visited Wrigley Field in 2017 (this series) but the Cubs haven't played in the Bronx since 2014.

ALDS rematch

Remember that bonkers three-game series at Target Field last July? The final scores: 8-6, 14-12, 10-7. The middle game was the Air Hicks catch game and the two teams combined to hit 21 home runs -- 21! -- in the three-game series. It was pure rocket ball chaos. I loved it and hated it. The ALDS was not quite as chaotic as that series, but the postseason is a different animal than the regular season mostly because teams only use their best pitchers and things like that. Last month the Yankees were scheduled to play a four-game series in Minnesota from June 18th to 21st. Four games between these two offenses? Goodness. If you'd have set the over/under at 49.5 runs and 22.5 homers for the four-game series, I think I would've taken the over, especially if the ball is juiced again. Including the postseason the Yankees are 103-37 (119-win pace) against the Twins since 2002 and 25-11 at Target Field. It is a decidedly one-sided rivalry. That doesn't mean the four-game series wouldn't have been total chaos. It sure was when these teams played in Minnesota last year.

The first trade?

During the Brian Cashman era the Yankees have tended to wait until close to the July 31st deadline to make trades, either because they're still cycling through internal options or because the market hasn't fully developed. The Yankees have occasionally struck early and made trades in June, however. Last season they acquired Edwin Encarnacion on June 15th. The Eric Hinske trade in 2009 was made on June 30th. The David Justice trade was made on June 29th, 2000. It doesn't happen often, but Cashman will pounce when an opportunity presents itself earlier in the season. I count eight teams that came into the year in some sort of rebuild (Blue Jays, Mariners, Marlins, Orioles, Pirates, Rockies, Royals, Tigers), and with that many teams out of it, chances are at least one would be willing to get a jump on the market and make a deal in June. Seattle did it with Encarnacion last year. The Yankees could've acted quickly again with a June trade this year.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Ed Yarnall. Our next random Yankee made as many Major League starts as times he was involved in a significant trade (three each). We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Juan Miranda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. The Mets selected Yarnall in the third round of the 1996 draft and he was the centerpiece prospect in two notable trades before he even made his MLB debut. The Mets sent him to the Marlins in the Mike Piazza trade in May 1998 -- Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked Yarnall as the 60th best prospect in baseball that spring -- and the Marlins sent him to the Yankees with two others (Mark Johnson and Todd Noel) for Mike Lowell in Feb. 1999. Lowell was only 24 and top prospect himself, but Scott Brosius had a huge 1998 and was locked in at third base, which made Lowell expendable. "You never have enough pitching. Pitching is the name of the game. If we could utilize Lowell by trading him and bringing three legitimate prospects into the organization, we were going to do it," Brian Cashman told Buster Olney after the trade. Yarnall, then 23, impressed in his first Spring Training with the Yankees -- "He definitely has the ability, and his makeup is good. He seems to be very solid there. He's a good listener, a good watcher," then-pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre told Olney -- and spent most of 1999 in Triple-A. He was very good, pitching to a 3.47 ERA with 146 strikeouts in 145.1 innings. That earned him International League Most Valuable Pitcher honors. Yarnall made his MLB debut that July, throwing four scoreless innings across two relief appearances. He returned to the Bronx in September and was uneven:

• Sept. 5th at Angels: 6 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 6 BB, 4 K (start)
• Sept. 19th at Indians: 2.2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 K (relief)
• Sept. 28th at Orioles: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 2 K (start)

Yarnall did not have blow-you-away stuff. He was a lefty who sat 88-92 mph and relied on command and deception. The Yankees loved him though, and after trading Hideki Irabu to the Expos in Dec. 1999, Cashman said the fifth starter's job was Yarnall's to lose. "One of our main goals here is to place Eddie Yarnall in a position to be our fifth starter. Yarnall is a guy we believe highly in," Cashman told the Associated Press after the Irabu trade. Yarnall did lose the job. He got hit around in Spring Training and was sent to Triple-A, and Ramiro Mendoza opened the season as the fifth starter. Yarnall was summoned for relief work in late April and tossed two scoreless innings in a blowout loss on April 25th -- "He was fine. He looked a little anxious and he should have been. He needs to pitch," Joe Torre told Dan Martin after the game -- then was sent down soon thereafter. He returned as a starter on July 6th and was awful, allowing five runs on five hits, two walks, and a hit batsman in one inning against the Orioles. It wasn't the worst start by a Yankee that season -- Orlando Hernandez allowed nine runs in 0.2 innings against the White Sox on June 18th -- but it was bad enough that Yarnall never pitched for the Yankees again and never pitched in the big leagues again. "He wasn't very good. He just seems lost. We know it's in there," Torre told Jon Heyman after the game. Yarnall was sent to Triple-A after the game and his time with the organization came to an end less than a week later. On July 12th, the Yankees traded Yarnall to the Reds with fellow former top prospects Drew Henson and Jackson Melian (and Brian Reith) for Denny Neagle (and Mike Frank). Yarnall had a 4.56 ERA in 49.1 Triple-A innings at the time. "We have a chance to three-peat. At least a chance to try to make that happen. Now's the time to make a stand and go for it ... Denny Neagle is the guy we wanted. We feel he was the best pitcher available on the market," Cashman told the Associated Press after the trade. Yarnall had a 3.86 ERA in 67.2 Triple-A innings after the trade and Baseball America ranked him the 14th best prospect in Cincinnati's system prior to 2001. The Reds didn't give him much of a look in Spring Training, however, so Yarnall and his agent sought other opportunities. On April 2nd the Reds sold his rights to the Orix Blue Wave in Japan for $300,000. Yarnall had a 3.71 ERA in two seasons in Japan before coming back to the states. He spent 2003 in Triple-A with the Athletics, 2004 in Triple-A with the Red Sox and Phillies, 2005 in Triple-A with the Nationals, 2006 in Triple-A with the Royals, and 2007 in the Mexican League and an independent league. Now 44, Yarnall has been out of baseball since that 2007 season. He allowed 13 runs in 20 innings with the Yankees and Cashman routinely cites the Lowell trade as his worst. "We had Scott Brosius and we had a lack of pitching depth in the system. For the right circumstance, we were willing to move Mike Lowell, who was blocked by Brosius ... We secured three high-ceiling starters -- Eddie Yarnall, Todd Noel, and Mark Johnson, all three high picks, all three with high ability -- but all three busted. I know when the deal was done, it was something that we secured three high-end arms in the system, but none panned out," Cashman told Bryan Hoch in 2016. (Noel got hurt and never made it out of Single-A. Johnson was lost in the 1999 Rule 5 Draft and got into nine games with the 2000 Tigers. Lowell of course spent seven productive seasons with the Marlins before finishing his career with the Red Sox.)

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Earlier this week commissioner Rob Manfred admitted MLB was set on a 60-game season "no matter how negotiations with the players went," which seems like something he probably shouldn't have said out loud seeing how the MLBPA is expected to file a grievance claiming MLB did not make its best efforts to play as many games as possible as required by the March agreement. Manfred attempted to walk back his comments by saying, "If we had started an 82-game season, we would have had people in Arizona and Florida the time the second spike hit," which makes me wonder what life is like on whatever planet he resides, because it sure isn't Earth. How can someone so smart say so many dumb things? Communication doesn't seem to be Manfred's strength. Makes me wonder if he bungled explaining the March agreement to the owners a few weeks ago, leading to those messy negotiations ... Hal Steinbrenner told Meredith Marakovits (video link) he expects fans to be allowed into Yankee Stadium at some point this season. "I do expect to see fans in our stadium at some point to some degree, and that’s going to be a great day as well. I’m sure it’ll be in the 20-30% range, hopefully, at first. It’s definitely possible in the stadium to keep people at a safe distance, wearing masks at those capacities,” he said. 30% capacity at Yankee Stadium is about 16,000 people. Can we get through Summer Camp and get the regular season underway safely before we start worrying about fans in the stands? We're not out of the woods yet. Not even close ... According to James Wagner and George King, the Yankees will continue to pay their minor leaguers the $400 weekly stipend through July, and there will be no pay reductions or furloughs for team employees. It's unclear whether that will be the case through the end of the season or just temporarily. At this point the Royals and Twins are the only teams to commit to no pay reductions and no furloughs through the end of the season. A few other teams, like the Brewers and Nationals, have committed to no furloughs with pay reductions only for top executives. If the small market Royals and Twins can afford to guarantee full employment through the end of the season, the Yankees can too. I hope they do it soon instead of this month-to-month stuff. Having been in that situation, it's no fun when you're the one whose job is hanging in the balance like that ... And finally, I recommend Brittany Ghiroli's story on Eric Cressey's "Prohibition Baseball" camp during the shutdown (subs. req'd). Cressey, who the Yankees hired to oversee their training staff over the winter, had an All-Star roster working out at his Palm Beach facility, complete with simulated games at a local high school. They stayed socially distant and adhered to health and safety protocols, and also worked hard to keep their training camp a secret to avoid attracting fans and onlookers. Giancarlo Stanton was among the two dozen or so players working out at the facility. Others included Paul Goldschmidt, Corey Kluber, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander. "Most of these big league guys are used to throwing with brand new pearls every time and you are looking at $200 a dozen. Every foul ball, it stings a little bit," Cressey joked about the cost of holding the camp. Pretty cool story.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Dmitry asks: What happens with Ellsbury? Assuming he wins grievance, does he get his whole salary, or pro rated? Also, will Yanks have to pay luxury tax this year?

Because he was released, I assume Jacoby Ellsbury would receive his entire $21M salary (plus the $5M buyout of his 2021 option) if he wins the grievance. He's was not on the 40-man roster at the time, so the March agreement doesn't apply to his contract. His salary wouldn't be prorated. The Yankees released Ellsbury in November, weeks before COVID-19 was a thing. 

As for the luxury tax, yes, it still applies this year. The March agreement says the luxury tax will be calculated using full season salary like always, but the luxury tax bill will be prorated. The Yankees have a projected $260M full season luxury tax payroll. The temporary 30-man and 28-man rosters will raise that a bit. Let's call it $265M. 

The luxury tax threshold is $208M this season. As a second time offender the Yankees are taxed at 30% from $208M to $228M, 42% from $228M to $248M, and 75% on everything over $248M. Also, their top 2021 draft pick moves back 10 spots for exceeding $248M, which is unavoidable at this point. Here's the breakdown: 

• Luxury tax payroll: $265M
• Full season luxury tax bill: $27.15M
• Prorated luxury tax bill: $10.06M

The Yankees paid $6.7M in luxury tax last year and their largest luxury tax bill ever was $27.4M back in 2016. Luxury tax would not be collected this year if COVID-19 forces the season to be canceled at any point, though every team's tax rate would carry over to 2021. The Yankees would still be considered a second time offender next year.

Ben asks: When reading about your concept for a 6 man rotation, I was wondering if a 4 man tandem rotation might also make sense, at least for the beginning of the season--it'd maximize starts by the best starters while limiting the number of innings they throw at a time. Maybe this could help with injury prevention. I was thinking something like:

Cole/Tandem
Paxton/Tandem
Tanaka/Tandem
Happ/Tandem

Tandem guys would presumably be Montgomery plus all the opener and bulk guys you mentioned. As there will be limited off days, you could use Montgomery or an opener as an occasional fifth starter to keep everyone properly rested. Any thoughts?

Aaron Boone didn't rule out a six-man rotation or tandem starter setup during this week's conference call, but it didn't sound like a serious consideration either because the starters are "coming in in a good place." Boone also acknowledged "an injury can wipe out a season in a hurry," and the Yankees will be cautious. Every team will this year.

“I wouldn’t say (a six-man rotation) is likely. It kind of depends," Boone said. "We will see where we are and guys are building up and once the regular season starts they will be ready to go. Whether that is a five-man or a four-man we will be creative as we have to be. I wouldn’t necessarily say we are planning on anything specific at this point.’’ 

Pitching coach Matt Blake said yesterday the team's "initial thought" is a normal five-man rotation to begin the season.

Tandem starters is one of those ideas that looks good on paper but never really seems to work in practice. Teams do it in the minors because winning isn't the priority down there. In the big leagues though? That's more difficult. The Rockies didn't have enough pitchers in 2012 and they tried tandem starters out of necessity, but it was a mess.

I think there are two problems with the four-man tandem starter setup Ben laid out. One, asking guys to start every three days is inviting injury. Even with short 60-75 pitch starts, you're asking them to do something they're not used to doing, and they're already doing something they're not used to doing because of the shutdown. Consider the rotation:

• Gerrit Cole: Eight years remaining on his contract beyond this season.
• James Paxton: Back surgery in February.
• Masahiro Tanaka: The Yankees like to give him extra rest whenever possible.
• J.A. Happ: 37 years old.
• Jordan Montgomery: First full season back from Tommy John surgery.

I think Cole would be fine with four-man tandem starter setup. Would I want the Yankees to risk it? No. No I would not. The Yankees are far, far more likely to give their starters extra rest between starts than go with short rest as part of a tandem starter system. I say that only because that's how they've acted the last however many years. Extra rest as often as possible, and I don't see that changing during this weird season.

And two, the Yankees are built around their bullpen. The bullpen is their strength and they're going to use it often. A tandem starter arrangement could throw a wrench into those plans and I don't think the Yankees want to mess with their formula. Tandem starters is a good idea in theory. It's not easy to put into practice though, and I would be shocked if any team did something that gave their starters less rest between starts this year, even on short pitch counts.

Dave asks: I see that the rules for 2020 say there is no minimum or maximum required number of days on the IL for players that test positive for Covid. From what I am hearing, Covid testing is not all that reliable, sometimes it takes several tests for someone with symptoms to show positive, and people without symptoms can show positive. What's to prevent teams from manipulating this rule at their convenience?

No testing will be 100% accurate and, from what I understand, positive COVID-19 tests are very reliable. The negative tests are less certain, which I guess makes it more difficult to manipulate the injured list. There will be more false negatives than false positives, and no one is going on the injured list after a negative test.

As for the injured list, I would hope teams don't use the COVID-19 list to manipulate their roster. The virus has killed over 130,000 Americans to date and using it an excuse to optimize the roster would be appalling. Fake a tight hamstring or something. Faking a deadly virus to gain an on-field advantage is one of those things you just shouldn't do.

I should note that while the COVID-19 list has no minimum stay, the player does have to meet certain criteria to be activated. He has to test negative twice at least 24 hours apart, he has to show no symptoms for at least 72 hours, and a league medical board has to give their approval. That can take time and will hopefully prevent any roster manipulation.

Brad asks: What non current Yankee do you think has the highest likelihood of signing with the Yanks this offseason? Between DJ being a free agent and if Gleyber struggles at short, do you think Marcus Semien or Andrelton Simmons are at the top of this list?

Simmons is as good a pick as anyone. The Yankees have had longstanding interest in him -- they tried to acquire Simmons (and Jason Heyward) from the Braves back in the day, then settled on Didi Gregorius when nothing came together -- and he shouldn't command too much as a 31-year-old no bat, all glove player. He would be a fine stopgap at short.

My pick is Mike Minor. The Yankees had interest in Minor at the trade deadline and he's up their alley as a spin rate guy with a knack for suppressing hard contact. J.A. Happ, James Paxton, and Masahiro Tanaka can all become free agents after the season and sure, maybe Clarke Schmidt and Deivi Garcia can replace them, but the smart money is on the Yankees looking for at least one starter this winter. Minor's good and shouldn't command huge money. 

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)