June 12th, 2020: Wells, Hauver, Way, 2020 Draft, Mailbag

I hope Wells has a good bat flip tool. (Photo via Arizona Daily Star)

The 2020 MLB draft is in the books. The Yankees made three picks in the five-round draft after surrendering their second and fifth rounders to sign Gerrit Cole. With so little amateur baseball played prior to the shutdown, teams were largely flying blind. "We attacked the information we had on players from the limited spring schedule views, all available video, data, and our work from the fall and summer. Our scouts were diligent with Zoom meetings and we did a great job of incorporating our player development personnel and some pro scouts into our evaluation process," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer told George King. The good news is a three-pick draft allows for a deep-ish dive on each player rather than trying to cover 40 guys. Here is every 2020 draft pick and here are today's draft heavy thoughts.

1. First round (28th overall): Arizona C Austin Wells. A player I profiled. Hooray for that. The Yankees were said to want a bat early this draft and they got a pretty good one in Wells. They drafted him out of high school (35th round in 2018) -- Wells had an elbow injury that required a platelet-rich plasma injection as a senior and was never at full strength, crushing his draft stock -- so they have a history with him, and we know the Yankees love offensive-minded catchers. “We are very happy to get Austin Wells today. We thought he was one of the top hit and power combinations in the draft. We love his desire and makeup, along with his athleticism. We have known him for years and seen him progress quite a bit behind the plate to allow us to believe he can be an impact guy," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said in a statement. Wells, a lefty hitter, was a career .357/.476/.560 hitter with more walks (63) than strikeouts (57) in 71 games with the Wildcats, and he authored a .308/.389/.526 batting line with seven homers in 42 games against top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer. The Yankees have long valued success on the Cape and teams had to lean on old information following the shutdown this spring. "The guys that I know have been doing this a while, they’re putting their board together the same way they have in the past, just with less information. Just use the information that we have. The information we had from last summer, guys with high ceilings that we can go into with some type of certainty," Oppenheimer told Kristie Ackert last week. With Wells, the raw stats are excellent, Keith Law (subs. req'd) says he's a "high exit velocity" hitter, he had a 4.0 GPA, and Oppenheimer was quick to praise his "desire and makeup." The Yankees sure do love good makeup guys. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked Wells the 21st best prospect in the draft class while MLB.com ranked him 27th. Here's a piece of Baseball America's scouting report (here's video):

Wells has an outstanding approach at the plate with plus raw power, using a simple swing with good bat control ... He has trouble blocking and receiving pitches, especially knee to knee on the glove side, and there’s a record of elbow issues dating back to high school. An arm that once earned plus grades is now too frequently below-average.

It's a first round bat and not first round defense. Wells supposedly worked hard on defense over the winter -- for what it's worth, Michael Lev reports Trackman says Wells framed 13 extra strikes on pitches out of the zone in Arizona's final two games this year -- but he didn't get a much of chance to show it this spring (15 games prior to the shutdown), which cost him on draft day. "I think he does have the physical ability to (catch). I think he has the willingness to do it, and at the catching position, that’s probably one of the most important factors," Arizona coach Jay Johnson told Lev. The Yankees hired Tanner Swanson away from the Twins to not only serve as their big league catching coach, but also oversee their catching development in the farm system, so Wells is his project. We're going to get the automated strike zone at some point, it's inevitable, and when it arrives pitch-framing will cease to exist as a valued skill. Throwing and blocking will be the focus going forward. Wells did play some outfield and first base in college -- "Some observers believe Wells is athletic enough to handle the outfield and that the range and instincts can be developed, while others think he’s not twitchy enough for the outfield and doesn’t have the footwork for first base," says Baseball America's scouting report -- so those are possible fallback plans. The Yankees will keep Wells behind the plate until he shows he can't handle it and I am totally cool with it. He is still only 20 and you have to give young players a chance to get better. Don't assume the worst case scenario right out of the gate. There is absolutely a case for putting him at first base or the outfield immediately and getting the bat to the big leagues as quickly as possibly, but I want to see whether he can make it work behind the plate. If he can, he's a star. At another position, he's just a good player. The obvious big league comp is Kyle Schwarber, a big lefty power bat who was a bad defensive catcher in college, and I'd throw Greg Bird into the mix as well. The healthy version of Bird we saw in 2015, I should say. (In hindsight, a back injury forcing Bird to move from catcher to first base only weeks after being drafted in 2011 was ominous, huh?) Given his developmental needs, there's basically zero chance we'll see Wells on the 50-man roster this year -- there were only a handful of players in this draft who could make that jump and they're all pitchers -- though I'm sure the Yankees would love to get him to Instructional League in September as long as conditions allow. Wells has nothing to do with replacing Gary Sanchez when he becomes a free agent in two and a half years or Anthony Seigler's injuries and failure to develop or anything like that. The Yankees believe in the bat -- it's a bat that plays anywhere -- and are continuing to build depth at the most demanding position on the field. With or without the automated strike zone, Swanson will be tasked with turning Wells into a passable defender. If it works, great. If not, they'll try the outfield or first base. As long as Wells hits, the Yankees will find a home for the bat. "I'm a catcher, and I want to be a catcher. I know I'm definitely willing to do whatever it takes to get to the big leagues. So if that's at another position, then I'll just hit home runs at Yankee Stadium and play wherever they need me to," Wells said on a conference call yesterday. "We think he can be a pretty impactful guy, especially in our stadium," Oppenheimer added in today's conference call. The farm system is light on potential impact bats at the moment and, once he signs, Wells will have the second highest offensive upside in the system behind Jasson Dominguez, I believe. I'd rank him as the fourth best prospect in the organization behind Dominguez, Deivi Garcia, and Clarke Schmidt, and ahead of all those Single-A arms (Roansy Contreras, Luis Medina, Luis Gil, etc.). (There were a few pitchers on the board I preferred to Wells, specifically Clayton Beeter and Tanner Burns, but what do I know? I like the Wells pick. Perfectly reasonable at No. 28 and catchers who can bang are one of the rarest commodities in the sport.)

2. Third round (99th overall): Arizona State 2B Trevor Hauver. So I guess Yankees scouts spent some time in Arizona prior to the shutdown, huh? They were rumored to have serious interest in Arizona high schooler Carson Tucker (he went 23rd overall to the Indians), they took Austin Wells out of the University of Arizona in the first round, and they took Hauver out of Arizona State in the third round. I hear the Four Corners are nice in February. Anyway, Hauver is reminiscent of former Yankee Rob Refsnyder. Refsnyder was an outfielder and a big time performer in college (in Arizona!) who moved to second base in pro ball. Hauver is another top college performer -- he's a career .316/.426/.537 hitter with 18 home runs in 116 games with the Sun Devils -- who played the outfield in school but is moving to second in pro ball. The Yankees announced him as a second baseman at the draft, so that's where he'll play, at least initially. “We like his bat, we like his power from the left side also. He’s got plate discipline. He’s got the ability to hit the ball really hard. We saw loud contact from him and we think that that’s really gonna play also. He’s gonna walk, he’s gonna hit home runs. He played the infield when he was in high school so we think we’re going to try to recommend that we go that route with him here," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said on this morning's conference call.  Hauver is a lefty hitter whereas Refsnyder was a righty, which is a big deal because he's at the platoon advantage more often, and it sounds like scouts are a bit higher on his defensive skills than they were with Refsnyder back in the day. MLB.com ranked Hauver as the 130th best prospect in the draft class while Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked him 201st. Here's a piece of Baseball America's scouting report (here's video):

He projects to have average or better power, but that pop comes with some swing-and-miss. Hauver will need to hit at the next level because he’s just an average defender or a tick below, with not enough range for center field or enough arm for right field. Some observers believe Hauver could be an average defender at third base, which could boost his draft stock if a team believes he has a shot at the position.

Not a bad looking swing in that video. MLB's report says some see Hauver as a Daniel Murphy type, though that would be something like a 99th percentile outcome. I'd sign up for Hauver having Murphy's career in a heartbeat. Unsurprisingly, Hauver is said to be an exit velocity guy -- Jacob Rudner says he's been up to at least 109 mph in college -- and FanGraphs notes "his swing has a lot of lift." A lefty hitter who gets the ball airborne and can hit the ball hard? He'll love the short porch. These days teams are comfortable with subpar defenders at second because they're so good at positioning, and because the shift allows them to hide players, so to speak. That's why I once wrote about putting Miguel Andujar at second base. Above-average offense with a passable glove equals an everyday second baseman in today's game. Hauver's outfield experience gives him a viable fallback plan should the infield not work out, and hey, maybe he can develop into the super utility guy Refsnyder never became. Squint your eyes and you can see a lefty platoon bat who can play three or four positions. The downside is Hauver never does anything well enough to hold down a roster spot. Not enough bat, not enough glove, no real position (like Refsnyder). Hauver didn't really impact the baseball in the Cape Cod League -- he's a career .256/.384/.354 hitter in 67 games and two summers on the Cape -- and the concerns about his glove and position are not unfounded. Similar to Wells, the Yankees bought the bat and are hoping they can make the defense work. We've seen them go the opposite at times (Kyle Holder), but the Yankees generally go bat first and glove second. They did it with Refsnyder, Nick Solak, and again with last year's second rounder Josh Smith. In a three-pick draft with a very limited bonus pool, there are worse shots to take than a great college performer with enough athleticism and baseball aptitude that trying the middle infield is a legitimate possibility. I'm not sure where I'd slot Hauver in the Yankees' prospect rankings -- I ranked Smith as the No. 28 prospect in the system before the season, so I guess around there -- and the third round is beyond my "I like this other guy more and wish they'd taken him instead" capabilities. Hopefully Hauver hits and/or can play second base. There's a chance for a nifty little player here.

3. Fourth round (129th overall): Northwest Florida State RHP Beck Way. If you take the public draft prospect rankings to heart -- I wouldn't recommend it, especially not beyond the top 30-40 picks -- and think the Trevor Hauver pick was a reach, then you probably love the Way pick. He was the top junior college player in the draft and both Baseball America (No. 84) and MLB.com (No. 95) had him as a top 100 prospect in the class. In reality, the difference between the 84th and 129th best prospect in a given draft is pretty small, but I digress. Way started his college career as a reliever at Division II Belmont Abbey (3.98 ERA and 31/13 K/BB in 20.1 innings) before transferring to Northwest Florida State this year, where he had a 0.67 ERA with 58 strikeouts and only nine walks in 40 innings across six starts and one relief appearance. He moved into the rotation, held his stuff, and improved his control. Between schools Way had a 3.29 ERA with 18 strikeouts and 11 walks in 13.2 innings in the Cape Cod League as a reliever. "It's a great day for Beck and his family. One of the things we do is try to help players develop to be able to continue their careers. For Beck, he gets to continue at the highest level possible. We're happy to be a part of his journey to what we hope is the Major Leagues," Northwest Florida State coach Doug Martin said in a statement. Here is a chunk of Baseball America's scouting report (here's video):

Way gets up to 96-97 mph with the fastball, though the pitch more typically sits in the 92-94 range. He creates uncomfortable at-bats due to his ability to spot his fastball in all four quadrants of the zone and he disrupts the timing of batters thanks to a plus changeup with exceptional tumbling action. Way’s slider is more inconsistent than his fastball and changeup, but it has shown flashes of being an average third offering. 

Hey, the Rapsodo data in the video is really good! It has Way's fastball at 96.0 mph with a near 2,400 rpm spin rate and 100% spin efficiency. It's a bullpen setting and I don't know whether he gets to that consistently, but it's in there. "(Director of Pitching) Sam Briend is going to love this kid," one person told Lindsey Adler. That fastball and a "plus changeup with exceptional tumbling action" is a pretty good two-pitch foundation. The Yankees have a thing for helping pitchers add velocity, and sliders are all the rage in the data driven pitch design era -- the general belief is anyone can learn a slider, but curveballs and changeups are feel pitches that are either in your hand and wrist or not -- so maybe they can get him to 95-97 mph consistently, and turn his slider into a viable third pitch. That's not unreasonable given what we see happening across baseball these days. "New York is good at developing those types of guys," Eric Longenhagen wrote about the Way pick in his draft recap. Way's a junior college kid. He's still only 20. He has two pretty good pitches, he throws strikes, he showed he can start this spring, and he has age on his side. A few successful tweaks and the Yankees could really have something. In the fourth round and with a fairly limited bonus pool, I was expecting a generic college pitcher. Maybe a guy with arm strength and an injury history. Something like that. The Yankees did much better than that. Way has real ability and could've come out as a much higher pick had he been able to start all spring without the pandemic throwing a wrench into things. "He made huge strides from Cape Cod last summer. He has a fastball he can spin up to 98. He’s got good command of it to both sides of the plate. He’s loose, using simple delivery to repeat. There’s more in the tank with this guy when we get him in our strength and conditioning program," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said on this morning's conference call. Without spending too much time thinking about it, I'd say Way would slot in somewhere in the 20-25 range on a Yankees' top prospect list (I had T.J. Sikkema, last year's 38th overall pick, at No. 22 before the season). I'm really pleased with this year's draft haul. The Yankees got a legitimate first round bat in Austin Wells and a very interesting pitching prospect in Way, plus a good college performer in Hauver. Given their limited picks and bonus pool money, the Yankees did about as well as I could have reasonably hoped going into the draft. "I love this game, and I’ve desired it since I was five years old. I always knew that I wanted to do something really great. For me, my whole career was all about my potential," Way said during a radio interview last month (per Bryan Hoch).

4. Draft signing deadline. The signing deadline is Saturday, Aug. 1st, about three weeks later than usual. That seems perfectly designed to push the bonus payout as far back as possible -- players will receive only $100,000 upfront this year (the rest of their bonus will be paid in two equal installments on July 31st, 2021 and July 31st, 2022) and it must be paid within 30 days of signing, so a player can receive his $100,000 as late as Aug. 31st -- without teams having to worry about players attending fall semester classes and thus losing their rights. It is what it is. First round picks are already signing -- the Marlins reportedly had a deal with No. 3 pick Max Meyer before the first round ended -- though I wonder whether Day 2 picks may have to wait until closer to Aug. 1st so teams can delay their bonus payment until the season (hopefully) begins and they've made some television money. J.J. Cooper reports teams can pay their newly signed draftees the $400 weekly stipend as long as it is consistent with the rest of their minor leaguers (i.e. everyone gets the same amount of money for the same amount of time), and I guess that's another reason to delay a signing, but that is such a small amount of money. Five draftees at $400 a week for eight weeks is $16,000. Peanuts. There won't be a proper minor league season this year and thus no urgency to get draftees signed quickly and into pro ball. Not like they'll miss games, you know? The lack of a minor league season made the draft feel a bit hollow. Who knows when these kids will get into games. I hope the Yankees (and other teams) sign their new draftees quickly because $100,000 is life-changing money for most people, and signing them quickly and giving them their money as soon as possible seems like a good way to begin the relationship. Here's the Yankees' bonus pool situation real quick:

• First round: $2,493,400 slot value
• Third round: $587,400 slot value
• Fourth round: $438,700 slot value
• Total bonus pool: $3,519,500
• Bonus pool plus 5% overage: $3,695,475

The Yankees have consistently spent up to the 5% overage the last few years -- exceed your bonus pool more than 5% and you have to surrender next year's first round pick, which no team has ever done -- and I assume they'll do it again this year. It's only another $175,975 on top of their bonus pool. The Yankees have that in the couch cushions somewhere. Wells is a Scott Boras client and he has leverage as a draft-eligible sophomore, but he said he is eager to sign quickly -- "Absolutely, I'm ready to get going," he said on a conference call yesterday -- and I don't think the Yankees would have taken him without first pinning down his signability. They likely knew exactly what it will take ahead of time and are comfortable with it. We're probably going to see some stories that Wells might not sign because we hear those stories every year, especially with Boras clients, but don't buy them. Wells, Hauver, and Way will all sign. How the Yankees distribute that $3,695,475 (or so) across the three picks, I do not know -- Way is committed to LSU, so Hauver might be taking a bit of a haircut to make it all work -- but the Yankees will sign all three guys and I hope they sign them soon. If not, and they wait until closer to the Aug. 1st deadline, so be it.

5. Undrafted free agent market. The draft is over and we now turn our attention to the undrafted free agent market. The undrafted free agent signing period opens Sunday and bonuses are capped at $20,000. The rules prohibiting additional compensation for drafted players to skirt around the bonus pools (higher minor league salaries, promising a call-up, etc.) all apply to undrafted free agents as well. Having asked around a bit, I get the sense the undrafted free agent market is going to be a whole bunch of nothing. Mostly college seniors and lower profile college juniors. The $20,000 won't be enough for some players no matter what, and many college juniors who would have gone in the sixth to tenth rounds are expected to return to school and reenter the draft next year. Their options are sign now for $20,000 or try again next year, when you might get picked in the in the middle rounds and get a little more money. And if not, you wind up with the same $20,000. It's not like they're leaving hundreds of thousands on the table. The financial risk isn't that big. Anyway, here are MLB.com's and Baseball America's top undrafted players. The highly ranked high schoolers are extremely unlikely to sign as undrafted free agents. They'll go to school and reenter the draft in a few years. Here are five undrafted players who caught my eye, listed alphabetically.

RHP Jack Hartman, Appalachian State

Hartman started his career as a position player and didn't start pitching full-time until last spring. Allowed four runs with 22 strikeouts and nine walks in 12 innings prior to the shutdown. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked him the 286th best prospect in the draft class and says his heater sits "in the 94-97 mph range, with a banger of a breaking ball while throwing solid strikes." Here's video. Hartman is a senior and will very likely sign as an undrafted free agent.

UPDATE: I'm a dope. The Pirates selected Hartman in the fourth round (108th overall) yesterday, so he's not an undrafted free agent. My bad y'all.

RHP John McMillon, Texas Tech

Another two-way guy who didn't start pitching full-time until last season. McMillon struck out 20 with eight walks in 9.1 innings before baseball shut down this spring. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked him as the 357th best prospect in the draft class and says he can "reach triple digits with a plus-plus fastball and he can bury his slider in the dirt to go with it." Here's video. McMillon is a senior and that makes him likely to sign at some point.

C Casey Opitz, Arkansas

I'm surprised Opitz was not drafted, even as a bonus pool saving pick for a team that went all in elite talent early (Mets, White Sox). He's not much of a hitter (.253/.367/.350 in three years with the Razorbacks), but he's a fantastic defender with a true 80 arm on the 20-80 scouting scale. "(One) of the best scouts have seen in years," Baseball America (subs. req'd) wrote about his arm. They ranked him as the 100th best prospect in the draft class. Even with Austin Wells set to join Josh Breaux, Antonio Gomez, and Anthony Seigler in the farm system, there is no such thing as too many catchers, especially one with a great glove like Opitz. Maybe the Yankees could help him unlock some power and turn him into a viable big league backup. And if catching (or, more accurately, hitting) doesn't work out, maybe Opitz could have a future on the mound with that arm. Here's video of some throws.

IF Luke Waddell, Georgia Tech

The Cape Cod League was a grind (.227/.300/.237 in 43 games), but Waddell has been a steady performer for the Yellow Jackets, hitting .308/.410/.409 with more walks (62) than strikeouts (46) in 116 career games. Prior to the draft Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked him as the 116th best prospect available, and they bill him as a potential super utility guy who grinds out at-bats and has the defensive skills to play pretty much anywhere (even catcher at times). "Waddell doesn’t offer a ton of projection or impact potential, but scouts and coaches alike praise his work ethic, determination and baseball IQ," they wrote. Here's video. Waddell is a junior and declined to sign with the Diamondbacks as a draft-eligible sophomore in the 32nd round last year.

RHP Gavin Williams, East Carolina

Injuries limited Williams to 68 mostly relief innings in college, during which he had a 3.57 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 32 walks. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked him as the 81st best prospect in the draft class and says he "has been up into the 100-101 mph range at his best when healthy," with enough feel for a breaking ball and changeup that he might be able to start. Here's video. Williams missed time with a finger injury this year and could be best off seeing whether he can stay healthy as a senior next year.

Not the most exciting group of players, I know, but this is what the undrafted free agent market is expected to look like. Relievers with arm strength and possible bench guys are about as good as it gets when you're limited to $20,000 bonuses. For what it's worth, scouting director Damon Oppenheimer said the Yankees plan to be "aggressive" in the undrafted free agent market during this morning's conference call -- the team has put together a recruiting video to send to players, which is about the best they can do during the pandemic -- though keep in mind minor league contraction is on the horizon. The Yankees could lose Short Season Staten Island and Rookie Pulaski as soon as next year, meaning there will be fewer roster spots available going forward. There has to be a place to play these kids. I hope I'm wrong, but I expect a relatively unexciting undrafted free agent period heavy on projects and guys who might be role players should it all work out.

6. Remembering a random Yankee: Matt Luke. Today's random Yankees comes by request and is about as random as it gets. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Melky Mesa, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Zelous Wheeler, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. Long before he started his baseball career, Luke was born with a birthmark that covered one-quarter of his face, and he underwent five surgeries between ages 3-10 to gradually remove it from his lips and cheek. He was left with a long scar that traces his jawline and extends up to his eye socket. Kids can be cruel, and Luke was called "Scarface" and other names at school while growing up in Southern California.

"I had gotten older, and looks were starting to become important. I looked in the mirror and asked my parents, 'Why did you do this to me?' When you look in the mirror and you have scars and sutures, that's frightening ... I took a lot of abuse, and I think because I did, I'm more aware of other people's feelings today. I treat people with the respect that I want to be treated with. I wouldn't change a thing about me. If I had to do it all over again, I wouldn't have a clean face. The scars molded me to who I am. They taught me lessons. They've been a big part of my life. I'm proud of them," Luke told Jack Curry in March 1997. Baseball gave Luke an escape -- "Baseball was the way I became accepted. The first thing kids would notice is my scar. The next thing was I could play a little baseball," he told Bill Plaschke in April 1998 -- and he was a star, first at El Dorado High School in Orange County and later at Cal Berkeley. The Yankees selected him in the eighth round of the 1992 draft and by 1995 he'd risen to Triple-A. He hit .299/.325/.494 with three home runs in 24 Triple-A games as a 24-year-old left-handed hitting outfielder in 1995. Luke played well enough in Spring Training 1996 that he made the Opening Day roster. His lone appearance with the Yankees came on April 3rd, in the second game of the season. Ruben Sierra hurt his hamstring running out a ground ball in the sixth inning and Luke replaced him as a pinch-runner. He moved to second on Tino Martinez's walk, then scored on Bernie Williams' ground ball single. The next inning Luke's spot in the lineup came up with the bases loaded and two outs, and the Yankees nursing a 3-1 lead. Rather than give the rookie the at-bat, Joe Torre pinch-hit backup catcher Joe Girardi. Girardi drew a bases loaded walk and the Yankees eventually won the game 5-1. Luke was scheduled to start the next day, but the game got snowed out, and the Yankees brought Dion James back after he'd been released by the Expos at the end of Spring Training. James took over as the backup outfielder and Luke was sent to Triple-A, where he remained the rest of the season. No Sept. call-up or anything. Luke hit .280/.332/.564 with 19 homers in 74 Triple-A games that year, but 1997 was a grind (.228/.296/.374 in Triple-A), and the Yankees put him on waivers in September. The Dodgers claimed him and he split 1998 with the Dodgers and Indians -- he went from the Dodgers to the Indians to back to the Dodgers on waivers -- hitting .234/.287/.444 with 12 homers in 340 plate appearances as a platoon bat. Luke went 9-for-30 (.300) with the Angels in 1999 but was playing in an independent league by 2001 and in the Mexican League by 2002. He called it a career after that 2002 season. As best I can tell, Luke is one of four players in franchise history whose Yankees career consists of one pinch-running appearance and nothing else (i.e. no plate appearances and no defensive innings):

• Charlie Fallon in 1905
• Liz Funk in 1929
• Ray Mack in 1947
• Matt Luke in 1996

That was Fallon's only MLB appearance. Funk and Luke made it back to the big leagues with other teams, and Mack joined the Yankees after spending eight seasons with the Indians, including an All-Star season in 1940. I hope the Yankees gave Luke a World Series ring in 1996. Can't imagine many players have done less to earn a World Series ring. I don't mean that as a knock against the guy. It's just the reality of the situation. These days Luke is in the real estate business in Southern California, and he's also a member of the Angels and Dodgers alumni speakers bureaus, traveling around to give talks about his experiences.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Shana asks (short version): Let's assume MLB can get through a shortened season without a COVID-19 outbreak. With sample sizes so drastically reduced, would the stats really be meaningful and instructive? Is it fair to judge someone for having a ‘season-long slump’ if the season only lasts two months? How is it fair to evaluate players (and thus their future earning potential) on this season?

I don't keep official stats on this or anything, but I am certain Shana set a word count record for an RAB mailbag question. Checked in at over 1,500 words. I kid you not. Here's the full question. Glad to see baseball still has passionate fans even while doing little to nothing to deserve them.

To answer the question, no, this year's statistics won't be meaningful. The statistics will go into the record books because they are a factual record of what happened on the field, but it will be difficult to discern real improvement (or regression) from small sample size noise, and it's not fair to base future compensation on such a weird season.

There is also no other option at this point. The pandemic forced a shorter season on us -- the ongoing labor strife has shortened the season even further, it seems -- and baseball is still a business. It has to make money to remain operational. Skipping a season because it isn't safe is one thing. Skipping a season to avoid weird stats? Not happening. No baseball for 18 months would be disastrous.

Years ago I would have really stressed out about weird shortened season stats and I'm sure they'll give me headaches as I try to write about and analyze the game. I'm at a point now where I just embrace the chaos though. I hope someone hits .400 or finishes with a 0.00 ERA. No, it won't mean nearly as much as it would in a full season, but we can still enjoy it. This is the entertainment business, after all.

Player compensation worries me more than funny looking Baseball Reference pages. Clubs will cut back on spending no matter what, and the short season allows them to downplay a breakout year while still hammering players for a down season. Next summer's Collective Bargaining Agreement talks have the potential to get very ugly. I mean, the labor talks already are ugly, but I worry they'll get much worse.

Paul asks: How is the shortened season* going to impact arbitration cases? Fewer counting stats, no all-star, etc. Is that something that can be bargained? Or are the players just kind of at the mercy of the teams? (*if there is one)

The March agreement includes provisions for a revised arbitration system, but details are scarce at this point. Here's what Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel reported at the time:

The arbitration system will be adjusted to consider lessened counting statistics because of the shorter season, and salaries secured during the 2021 offseason through arbitration won't be used in the precedent-based system going forward.

I'm not sure how those adjustments to "consider lessened counting statistics" will be made and applied. Extrapolating shortened season stats out to 162 games only compounds the small sample weirdness, and it's not fair to ignore 2020 stats entirely because players will have legitimate breakouts, and should be rewarded for it. 

The fact 2021 arbitration salaries will be ignored going forward a) is smart, and b) tells us the two sides know next year's salaries won't accurately reflect what the players at each service time level are worth. They've already agreed 2021 salaries will be anomalies. It's not fair to the guys going through arbitration, but what else can they do? I don't trust teams to treat players fairly and this revised arbitration system seems ripe for exploitation.

Sandy asks: Kim Ng and Jean Afterman, both with connections to the Yankee front office, were frequently mentioned at one time (though not recently) as candidates to become the first female GM in MLB. Who are other candidates to break that glass ceiling, either with the Yankees or with another team? 

Afterman is still with the Yankees as an assistant general manager, though she moved back to California last year to be closer to her family, and is working remotely. Ng has been in the commissioner's office as a senior vice president since 2011. It's been a while since she last interviewed for a general manager's job.

The highest ranking woman in an MLB front office is Raquel Ferreira. She has been with the Red Sox for 21 years now and was promoted to senior vice president of major and minor league operations when Dave Dombrowski was fired. Her current rank and experience makes her a leading candidate to become the first female general manager.

Another candidate: Haley Alvarez, currently the Athletics assistant director of scouting and baseball operations. She's also worked for the Reds, Red Sox, University of Virginia baseball team, and the commissioner's office. Christina Kahrl wrote about women rising up the front office ranks two years ago and I recommend giving that a read.

MLB front offices lack diversity but things are slowly improving. The Yankees hired the first female hitting coach over the winter (minor league instructor Rachel Balkovic) and the Giants named Alyssa Nakken to their coaching staff in January. She is the first woman on a full-time MLB coaching staff. Barriers are being broken. Slowly, but it is happening.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)