June 9th, 2020: Economic Proposal, 2021 Workloads, 2020 Draft

In a pandemic-less world the Yankees would have started a three-game home series with the Royals later tonight. It would've been their 67th game of the season. So much baseball has been missed already, and I feel like so much more baseball will be missed unnecessarily. Dark times for this sport. Anyway, here are today's thoughts.

1. Still no deal for 2020. With each passing day I find it harder to believe MLB wants baseball to be played this year. For starters, Bradford William Davis reports only four of the 28 relevant health departments confirmed they've received MLB's health and safely plan, a document that puts the onus on individual teams to develop action plans "in consultation with its ... government health authorities." That process has only barely begun even though it's been three weeks since MLB presented the safety plan to the MLBPA. You'd think there would be more urgency seeing how MLB claimed it wanted to start Spring Training later this month. Secondly, Jorge Castillo reports MLB's latest economic proposal would require the players to sign an "acknowledgement of risk" waiver before returning to play. Gotta think that will be a non-starter for the MLBPA. Sign that waiver and the players have no recourse should MLB provide an unsafe work environment in the middle of a pandemic. I swear, it's almost like MLB is daring players (especially wealthy players) to not play this year. And third, MLB's financial proposals are the same pig wearing different shades of lipstick. These are the general terms MLB has put on the table:

• 82 games with sliding salary scale (roughly 33% of full season salary)
• 48-54 games with full prorated salary (30% to 33% of full season salary)
• 76 games with 75% prorated salary (35% of full season salary)

The 76-game proposal, which was reported yesterday, is conditional. Players only get 75% of their prorated pay if the postseason is completed. If it isn't, they'll only get 50% of their prorated pay, or 23% of their full season salary. MLB keeps making the same basic offer: we'll pay you approximately one-third of your full season salary. The only difference is how many games they'd play, and if you're the players, would you rather play 82 games, 76 games, or 50-ish games if you're getting the same salary? Give me the shorter season and less time away from my family (during a pandemic!), thank you very much. MLB has not budged an inch and their unwillingness to alter their proposal in a meaningful way -- not to mention the way they've dragged their feet with relevant health officials -- makes it seem like they're stalling until Manfred can say "there's no more time to negotiate, this has been going on too long, we're playing 50-ish games" and unilaterally schedule the season as the March agreement allows. I feel like that's the endgame. One piece of leverage the players have is the expanded postseason. They have to agree to the 14-team format, which would put many millions in MLB's pocket. Players don't get paid during the postseason and that makes this an easy "no." MLB is trying to take money out of the player's pockets and not approving the expanded postseason is really the only way the MLBPA can hurt the MLB's bottom line (other than not playing). This sucks. I can't believe it is June 9th, the draft is tomorrow night, and we're still waiting on them to figure out the money. Surely MLB knows the longer baseball is not played, the worst it'll be for the league long-term, right? Do Manfred & Co. know the NBA is considering shifting its schedule to take over the summer months rather than compete with the NFL in the fall? Or have they missed that? MLB had to sell its soul to performance-enhancing drugs to recover after the 1994-95 work stoppage and that was when (present and future) fans had fewer ways to occupy their time in the pre-internet era (it wasn't truly pre-internet, but you know what I mean). Back in March, Manfred said MLB will "be part of the recovery, the healing in this country, from this particular pandemic," and wow does that ring hollow now. MLB will happily take credit for helping the country heal but they don't seem willing to make it happen on anything other than their terms. The league is giving the impression it feels no obligation to play games and that is a bad, dangerous thing. It is also a natural extension of the "no obligation to put a competitive team on the field" tanking strategy that has become so popular. If they can't play because it's not safe and the pandemic won't allow it, it would be sad, but I think we'd all understand. If they don't play because MLB insists the players help them cover their losses, burn the league to the ground. (Should Manfred unilaterally implement a 50-ish game season, the MLBPA could file a grievance arguing MLB did not make a good faith effort to play as many games as possible. That case would likely take years to resolve -- the 1985 collusion case did not get in front of an arbitrator until 1987 -- but it could lead to a financial settlement for the players down the line.)

2. 2021 workloads. Let's say, for argument's sake, MLB and the MLBPA reach an agreement and play a short regular season and a full postseason this year. Maybe it's 50 regular season games, maybe it's 82, whatever. Assume games will be played. We know teams will have 30-man active rosters (and 20-man taxi squads) this year to help protect pitchers who were a month into Spring Training when the sport shut down. Starting Spring Training, then shutting down for three months, then starting a new (abbreviated) Spring Training? Uncharted territory. No one's ever done that and now the entire sport is trying to do it at once. "Normally baseball can be secretive and protective at the Major League level, but I think there’s a sense of community amongst (pitching coaches) right now because we’re all in this together, and there’s really no playbook we can look at for this," new pitching coach Matt Blake told Lindsey Adler (subs. req'd) in April. Teams will be cautious with all pitchers this year, especially their top young pitchers (Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt) and their high-priced pitchers (Gerrit Cole). This is not a one-year problem, however. This year's weirdness will bleed into next season. Cole, for example, went from 213.1 innings in 2018 to 249 innings in 2019 to what, maybe 100 innings in 2020? And then he's just going to go back to 200+ innings in 2021 again? Maybe Cole isn't the best example seeing how he's in his physical prime and has logged 200+ innings each of the last three seasons and four of the last five seasons. What about this guy though:

• 2017: 98 innings
• 2018: 177 innings
• 2019: 195 innings
• 2020: ???

That's Walker Buehler, who had Tommy John surgery in Aug. 2015, threw six innings in his return in 2016, and has been carefully built up in the three full seasons since. Buehler turns 26 next month and yeah, maybe he can throw 100-ish innings this year and jump up to 200 innings next year with no problems. Will the Dodgers throw caution to the wind with one of the best young pitchers in the sport? No way. I think MLB and the MLBPA would be wise to extend the 30-man active roster into next season to protect pitchers after this short, weird season. Maybe there can be a normal Triple-A season (I hope there is) and they won't need the 20-man taxi squad next year, but giving teams a few extra pitchers to help navigate these weird times seems worthwhile. I'd rather teams have too many pitchers than not enough. And maybe it doesn't have to be a 30-man roster. Maybe it could be a 28-man roster with the two extra spots going to pitchers. The three-batter minimum rule is a thing now, so we no longer have to worry about three different pitchers in the span of three different batters or anything like that. Just give teams extra arms so they can pull their starters an inning earlier than usual, and more easily give him an extra day between starts. It's a good thing for everyone. The MLBPA gets more jobs and MLB has a better chance to keep its top players healthy short and long-term. I suppose MLB and the MLBPA can kick this can down the road and tackle temporary roster expansion for 2021 this winter. They have enough on their plate now as it is. I have to think both sides are aware the short season this year may require rule changes to protect players next year. Protecting pitchers will be a multi-year effort. "I want to see them throwing 130 innings. I don’t want them throwing 80 innings and then coming back the next year facing a full season. I don’t want the innings jump. We want them playing through October," Scott Boras told Tom Verducci.

3. 2020 draft prospects: RHP Chris McMahon and RHP Carmen Mlodzinski. The Yankees have only three picks and a $3.7M maximum bonus pool during this year's five-round draft, and our look at possible Yankees targets wraps up today seeing how the draft is tomorrow. We've already covered RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Nick Bitsko, RHP Tanner Burns, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, RHP Cade Cavalli, RHP Slade Cecconi, C Dillon Dingler, LHP Jake Eder, 2B Justin Foscue, SS Nick Loftin, RHP J.T. Ginn, OF Isaiah Greene, RHP Bryce Jarvis, LHP Luke Little, RHP Max Meyer, RHP Bobby Miller, 1B Aaron Sabato, SS Carson Tucker, RHP C.J. Van Eyk, and C Austin Wells. McMahon and Mlodzinski are both personal favorites and college righties, though the similarities end there. McMahon was a potential top three rounds pick out of high school, but he was strongly committed to Miami, and he slipped to the Braves in the 33rd round. A knee injury limited him as a freshman, but McMahon had a 3.73 ERA with 67 strikeouts and 23 walks in 60.1 innings last spring. This year he allowed three runs with 38 strikeouts and five walks in 25.2 innings prior to the shutdown. MLB.com ranks him as the 29th best prospect in the draft class while Baseball America (subs. req'd) has him 30th. The Yankees hold the 28th pick. Here's a snippet of MLB's scouting report (here's video):

His fastball is up to 95-96 mph consistently, with late action on it down in the zone, and he was up to 98 mph this fall. He knows how to spin a breaking ball, but it gets caught in between being a curve and slider, looking more like the former. He has a very good feel for his changeup that can miss bats and get ground-ball outs ... When he's on, McMahon combines athleticism, stuff, feel for pitching and command to make him a complete package.

Baseball America's report says "scouts believe his pitch metrics will excite analytically inclined evaluators," but does that mean McMahon rates well on Trackman (spin rate, etc.), or are scouts speculating he rates well on Trackman? I dunno. As for Mlodzinski, his career numbers at South Carolina are underwhelming: 4.74 ERA with 76 strikeouts and 40 walks in 81.2 innings. He tore up top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer though (2.15 ERA and 40/4 K/BB in 29.1 innings), and he was very good this spring prior to the shutdown (2.84 ERA with 22/8 K/BB in 25.1 innings). MLB.com ranks Mlodzinski as the 21st best prospect in the draft class. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks him 25th. Again, the Yankees hold the 28th selection. Here's a chunk of MLB's scouting report (here's video):

Mlodzinski sat at 92-96 mph with his fastball on the Cape and touched 99 during fall practice, and his heater also features some sink and run. He flashed a plus curveball in high school but has scrapped that for a low-80s slider with power and depth that sometimes morphs into a cutter. He also shows feel for a sinking changeup and could have three plus pitches once he's fully developed ... He's athletic and his arm works well, so there's no reason he shouldn't have good control.

Mlodzinski is a "the numbers stink but wow look at the stuff!" pitching prospect -- go watch the video I linked to, it's easy to dream on that arm - whereas McMahon is a more traditional "good stuff, good feel, good results" pitching prospect. Maybe it's just a coincidence, but South Carolina has been a go-to school for the Yankees the last decade or so (Jordan Montgomery, Clarke Schmidt, Dom Thompson-Williams, Tyler Webb, Taylor Widener), and maybe that bodes well for Mlodzinski. McMahon is the safer college arm who's pretty good as is and could maybe reach another level with a few tweaks and pro instruction. Mlodzinski is the project, and if you believe in your player development staff, you hand them that ball of pitching clay and tell them to get to work. I like both pitchers for no reason in particular, and because this draft is so deep in pitching, one or both could still be on the board when the Yankees pick. The Yankees usually target pitchers who are already pretty good and they believe they can make better, like Schmidt and James Kaprielian. That leads me to believe McMahon is higher on their draft board than Mlodzinski. They usually don't go for projects with bad results like Mlodzinski. They want some track record. Anyway, I like both guys, and I fully admit I have no good reason for feeling that way. (If you're interested, I guessed my way through one final mock draft at CBS yesterday.)

4. 2020 draft thoughts. Now that I'm done profiling prospects, I wanted to assemble some general thoughts about the 2020 draft. First of all, the draft begins tomorrow night and will be broadcast on multiple networks for the first time ever, so hooray for variety. Here are the details:

• Wednesday (7pm ET): MLB Network and ESPN (picks 1-37)
• Thursday (5pm ET): MLB Network and ESPN2 (picks 38-160)

The Yankees have one pick Wednesday (No. 28) and two picks Thursday (Nos. 99 and 129). I'll probably stick with the MLB Network broadcast because they'll have Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, plus maybe the Baseball America folks, but I have to be honest, I only watch to see the picks live. I don't pay too much attention to the analysis. Brian Cashman will represent the Yankees during the draft broadcast -- not gonna lie, I was hoping we'd get to hear Nick Swisher announce their picks again -- and here's the list of 23 players who will appear on the broadcast remotely (the "sorry, I'm not available that night" excuse doesn't work well during a quarantine, unfortunately). Decent chance each of the top 10 picks (and most first rounders) will be on the broadcast, which is pretty cool. MLB absolutely sucks at marketing its players and this is a great opportunity to introduce sports-starved fans to the next generation of stars. As for the Yankees, I expect them to take three college players with their three picks, but I hear their interest in Carson Tucker (my profile) is very real. He might be the only high schooler they're willing to take in the first round, and it's probably not a coincidence he's said to be eager to sign (Eric Longenhagen hears Tucker's number is $1.5M or so, roughly $1M below-slot at No. 28). The Yankees supposedly want a bat in the first round and pitchers later, which sounds good to me, but when you're picking late in the first round, you have to remain flexible. Just take whoever you consider the most talented player (who is signable) and go from there. Don't take the sixth best player on your board just to adhere to an arbitrary strategy, you know? Two prospects I (irrationally?) love this draft are Clayton Beeter (my profile) and Tanner Burns (my profile). Beeter has WOW stuff and is an analytics darling with elite spin rates on par with the very best big leaguers. He also had Tommy John surgery two years ago and walked 20 batters in 20.1 innings last spring, so he's short on track record and carries risk. I'm fascinated to see what a smart, analytically-inclined team can do with him. Part of me wants to watch from afar as some other team develops him, unless he turns into a star, in which case I hope the Yankees are the team that drafts him. Among the draft's second tier pitching prospects (i.e. the guys who might actually be available to the Yankees), Burns is the closest to a total package. His stuff passes the traditional scouting eye test and the analytics test, he's performed very well in college baseball's toughest conference (career 2.86 ERA and 210/67 K/BB in 188.2 innings), and he's long been praised for his dogged competitiveness. Burns may not be as interesting as Beeter, but he offers a nice combination of upside and probability whereas Beeter is more boom or bust. A prospect I find interesting but didn't bother to profile is San Diego State's Casey Schmitt. He's been their third baseman and closer the last three years, and is the best two-way prospect in the draft class. Schmitt hit .317/.408/.450 the last two seasons and he has a career 2.48 ERA with 78 strikeouts and 29 walks in 87 innings, and he was good both ways against top competition in the Cape Cod League last summer. Baseball America (subs. req'd) and MLB.com rank him as the 77th and 117th best prospect in the draft class, respectively, putting him in the mix for New York's third (99th overall) and fourth (129th overall) round picks. Here's a piece of MLB's free scouting report (here's position player video and here's pitcher video):

He has a clean and easy delivery and consistently gets his fastball up to 94 mph, while keeping it fairly true. He'll throw the splitter 77-80 mph, and he has shown the ability to miss bats with it ... His raw power, his best offensive tool, also showed up on the Cape as he homered five times with a wood bat ... He's a solid defender at third with that plus arm enabling him to make every throw from the hot corner.

The best two-way players are born, not made. They work at it their entire lives and are two-way players at every stop on their way to the big leagues, like Shohei Ohtani and Brendan McKay. The Yankees' efforts to develop a two-way player start and end with Dermis Garcia, a slugging corner infield prospect who threw some bullpen sessions in 2018 but never did pitch in an actual game. Using this year's third or (preferably) fourth round pick on Schmitt and trying to develop him as a two-way player would be pretty fun. If it doesn't work, then it doesn't work, and you make him a full-time third baseman or a full-time reliever. The Rays are actively working to develop two-way players -- in addition to McKay, Tampa is using prospect Tanner Dodson as a two-way player, and last year they converted infielder Jacob Cronenworth into a two-way player in Triple-A before trading him to the Padres -- and they have three picks between the Yankees' first and third rounders. I assume they're the team most likely to grab Schmitt. I dunno, I just find Schmitt fun and interesting, and it would be cool to see the Yankees get in on the two-way player act. On one hand, you want to nail your picks in such a short draft because whiffing on an entire talent acquisition period can be disastrous. On the other hand, this year's short and weird draft almost invites teams to get creative. They haven't been able to properly scout players for months and it's not like the Yankees are the only team with so few picks. Chances are many teams will have nothing to show for this draft when it's all said and done. Schmitt would be a fun selection. A smart selection? I dunno, but I am pro-fun, and Schmitt is fun. I expect the Yankees to go with three college players given their limited bonus pool, with Tucker the only high school kid giving me pause. He's the one prep player I could see the Yankees taking in the first round. "It’s definitely a real challenge. We're just trying to do the best we can with the information that we have and trying to create as much information as possible. The data really hasn't changed, so it's just more video and more knowledge of the players. That's about the only way we're able to enhance what we can do," scouting director Damon Oppenheimer told Sweeny Murti (audio link) about this year's draft weirdness recently. (I'm planning to tackle the undrafted free agent market on Friday. Need to see who actually goes undrafted first.)

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Edwar Ramirez. Our next random Yankee might be too well-known to be considered random, but I feel like writing about him, so we're covering him. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Melky Mesa, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Mark Reynolds, Zelous Wheeler, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. Despite the 2005 ALDS loss, Brian Cashman leveraged interest from the Nationals and Phillies into a new three-year contract that gave him greater control of baseball operations in Oct. 2005. George Steinbrenner allowed Cashman to overhaul the front office -- the proverbial wall between the New York and Tampa factions was finally torn down -- and Cashman used that autonomy to create the pro scouting department. A scout named Billy Eppler was promoted and put in charge as the department's director. A few months later Eppler was scouring spreadsheets for a minor league depth reliever when he stumbled across a pitcher who'd struck out 46 and allowed only three earned runs in 25.1 innings for the independent Edinburg Coyotes in Texas. "Statistics found him ... We didn't send anybody in to look," Eppler told Ed Price in 2007 when asked about finding Edwar Ramirez and his Bugs Bunny changeup. Ramirez, then 25, originally signed with the Angels as an amateur free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2001, but he was released in Spring Training 2004 after allowing 55 runs in 91.2 innings from 2002-03. He did not pitch professionally in 2004 and instead worked out on his own, and taught himself a changeup because his breaking ball never developed. Ramirez was dominant with the independent Pensacola Pelicans in 2005 (1.45 ERA and 93 strikeouts in 62 innings) -- the Angels re-signed him that September only to release him again in Spring Training -- before opening 2006 with Edinburg. His contract was sold to the Yankees for a low four-figure sum on July 9th, 2006. Ramirez was first United League player ever to have his contract sold to a Major League organization. He spent the rest of 2006 with High-A Tampa, where he struck out 47 and walked six in 30.2 innings. He allowed four earned runs. Ramirez started the next season with Double-A Trenton, quickly earned a promotion to Triple-A Scranton, then was called up to the big leagues on July 1st, 2007, less than one year after signing out of an independent league. He'd struck out 80 batters and allowed three earned runs in 43.1 minor league innings up to that point. Unfortunately for Ramirez, Joe Torre loved his veteran relievers, and the rail thin right-hander pitched only three times in his first three weeks on the roster. He struck out the side in his debut (video), so that was cool, but he also walked four and allowed a grand slam in his third appearance. Ramirez was sent back to Triple-A after that, though he rejoined the Yankees in mid-August, and finished the year on the big league roster. He allowed 19 runs in 21 innings while striking out 33. Ramirez started 2008 in Triple-A but was quickly summoned in mid-April, and remained with the team with the rest of the season. He struck out 63 in 55.1 innings and had a 3.90 ERA. On July 30th, Ramirez threw a fastball over Kevin Millar's head in apparent retaliation for Daniel Cabrera plunking Alex Rodriguez a day earlier, and was ejected. "One hundred percent (it was intentional). I was upset they threw him out of the game because he’s really good hittin’," Millar, who went 1-for-6 with four strikeouts in his career against Ramirez, told Brian Lewis after the game. Despite his solid 2008 season Ramirez was not guaranteed an Opening Day bullpen spot in 2009, and he declined an invitation to the World Baseball Classic to stay in Spring Training. He won a job but was clearly not right -- it was later revealed he'd been pitching through a shoulder issue -- and was sent to Triple-A in late May after allowing 11 runs in his first 17.1 innings. He'd struck out 16 but also walked 15, and allowed six homers. Ramirez was fine in Triple-A but not dominant (3.18 ERA and 62 strikeouts in 51 innings), and he returned to the Yankees as an extra arm once rosters expanded in September. He finished the season with a 5.73 ERA and a .281/.394/.517 opponent's batting line. That was the end of Ramirez's time as a Yankee. He was designated for assignment in Spring Training 2010 after the team's late Chan Ho Park signing, and the Yankees traded him to the Rangers for cash. Fifteen days later the Rangers traded him to the Athletics for future Yankee Gregorio Petit. Ramirez spent 2010 as an up-and-down arm with the A's -- he allowed seven runs in 11 big league innings -- then was released after the season. That was pretty much the end of his time in baseball. Ramirez made 16 scattered appearances in Mexico and the Dominican Winter League from 2011-15 before calling it a career. In parts of three seasons with the Yankees he had a 5.22 ERA (5.19 FIP) with 116 strikeouts in 98.1 innings. His 26.0% strikeout rate is 15th highest in Yankees history (min. 90 innings), sandwiched between Chasen Shreve (26.4%) and Tom Gordon (24.8%). I know there's nothing exciting about 98.1 replacement level innings, but that 2008 season alone makes the Ramirez signing a nice little win. Eppler and the Yankees plucked a guy out of an independent league and got a serviceable middle relief season (+0.8 WAR) out of it. Pretty cool. Good story too. Ramirez's time with the Yankees is not finished either. The Yankees named Ramirez, now 39, their Dominican Summer League pitching coach last season, and he was set to return in the same role prior to the shutdown this year. Maybe he'll work his way up the ladder and eventually return to the Bronx as a coach. Who knows?

6. Rapid fire thoughts. I don't think this will happen, but imagine if several star players sit out the season should commissioner Rob Manfred unilaterally implement a 50-ish game season? Gerrit Cole and Mike Trout have huge long-term deals and both are expecting their first child this summer. Imagine them saying "less than 5% of my contract isn't enough to risk playing in the middle of a pandemic, see y'all next spring." Again, I don't think this will happen, players want to play, but it would be kinda funny if MLB backed itself into a corner and was forced to put an inferior product on the field after strong-arming the MLBPA these last three months ... And finally, the Athletics reversed course late last week and announced they will pay their minor leaguers the $400 a week stipend through the scheduled end of the minor league season. "I changed my mind after spending a lot of time talking to our team. I concluded I'd made a mistake," owner John Fisher said. It's good the A's were shamed into playing their players, but this goes to show this was always a choice, and not simply a matter of budget. Whenever a team tells you something is necessary for the bottom line, don't believe them. They have every reason to make themselves appear sympathetic and we have no way to fact check them.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)