June 2nd, 2020: Economic Proposal, Minor League Releases, What We've Missed, 2020 Draft, Severino

For the first time since the shutdown, I am optimistic we will have baseball this year. I have upgraded from "hopeful" to "optimistic" because there has been (a little) progress on the money the last few days. Things are starting to move in the right direction. Hopefully MLB and the MLBPA figure it out and can safely play the season soon. Would be cool. Now for today's thoughts.

1. Latest economic proposal. Let's start with the latest negotiations and get it out of the way. On Sunday, a few hours after Buster Olney (subs. req'd) reported there is a "group of owners perfectly willing to shut down the season" to save money, the MLBPA submitted a counter-proposal to MLB. Last week MLB proposed a sliding salary scale that would cut another 33% or so off the prorated salaries the two sides agreed to in March. Here's what the union proposed Sunday:

• 114-game regular season from June 30th through Oct. 31st.
• 14-team expanded postseason in 2020 and 2021.
• $100M non-refundable advance when players report to Spring Training.
• If the postseason is not played, roughly $100 million in salary owed to players making $10M or more would be deferred with interest to 2021 and 2022.
• All players can opt-out of the season and receive service time. Players with "high risk" medical conditions, or have family members who are "high risk," will still be paid.
• Players commit to wearing microphones on the field and participating in other events to promote the game (off-the-field programming, etc.).
• An offer to hold events like the All-Star Game and Home Run Derby in the offseason to generate additional revenue.

Certainly more reasonable than MLB's draconian "shut up and play and take another pay cut" stance. Jeff Passan reported last night that MLB may counter with full prorated pay over a 50-ish game season, which I see as a positive step because it shifts talks away from pay rate to number of games. The owners insist they will lose money on every game played without fans (something the union doesn't buy at all), so fewer games equals smaller losses. The MLBPA extended two olive branches with their proposal. First, they offered to expand the postseason this year and next, rather than just this year. That'll put more money in everyone's pocket (it also paves the way for the 14-team postseason to become permanent when the next Collective Bargaining Agreement begins in 2022). And second, they put deferrals on the table. Deferrals with interest (so the players don't lose money over time) and conditions (no postseason, highly paid players only), but deferrals nonetheless. That shows the MLBPA is willing to be flexible and help the owners navigate their short-term cash flow problems. The proposal at least seems like something the two sides can build off, you know? It's the first time either side put something on the table that didn't immediately make me say "well that's never going to happen." There's no hard deadline for an agreement but the clock is ticking. MLB and the MLBPA have to get a deal wrapped up soon if they're going to start Spring Training 2.0 this month and the regular season in early July (apparently MLB doesn't want Opening Day on July 4th because they don't want to compete with the holiday). I don't think it's hyperbole to call this baseball's most important week since the 1994-95 work stoppage. If talks bleed into early next week, fine, but if the two sides don't make substantial progress the next few days, salvaging a respectable season will be really, really difficult. The bet here is the two sides agree to a number of games between what MLB proposed and the MLBPA proposed -- the midpoint between 50 games and 114 games is 82 games (funny how that works) -- and MLB gets deferrals with no conditions, so they'll spread some of the salary across multiple years. That's my guess. If push comes to shove, I think the MLBPA would accept a shorter season with prorated pay over a longer season with salary reductions because they don't want to set a precedent for accepting anything less than prorated pay reductions to bail out the owners. (As for Olney's report that some owners are willing to cancel the season to save money, I absolutely believe that. I also don't believe enough owners feel that way for it to matter. Twenty-three votes are required to approve plans and I don't think eight owners are willing to walk away from an entire season. Still, even one owner being willing to walk away is a terrible thing, though I can't say it's surprising at this point.)

2. Minor league cuts. This stinks. The Yankees joined many other clubs and released scores of minor leaguers yesterday. Forty-five players total. Here's the list, via Robert Pimpsner:

• Catchers: Ryan Lidge, Edwin Tordecilla
• Infielders: Asdrubal Alvarez, Nelson Alvarez, Jake Farrell, Brayan Jimenez, Borinquen Mendez, David Metzgar, Danienger Perez, Mitch Robinson, Jose Villa
• Outfielders: Jose Cairo, Wilfre Favelo, Ricardo Ferreira, Leonel Hernandez, Alex Junior, Sandy Mota, Marco Naranjo 
• Righties: Joensy Abreu, Felix Alonzo, Jackson Bertsch, Wellington Caceres, Albert Carrizo, Austin DeCarr, Abel Estevez, Marcus Evey, Tyler Johnson, Oliver Lezcano, Anyelo Luna, Daniel Marten, Erick Mendez, Luis Nova, Jose Peguero, Ignacio Radney, Daniel Ramos, Carlos Rodriguez, Adonny Rojas, Carlos Santana, Victor Santana, Paul Young
• Lefties: Argelis Herrera, Dalton Lehnen, Abismael Villaman

DotF readers may recognize a few of those names. DeCarr is the most notable -- he's the only one of those 45 players to ever appear on my annual top 30 prospects list, though I speculated Lidge could be a non-roster invitee a few springs -- and he couldn't stay healthy after signing for $1M as the team's third round pick in 2014 (only 134 career innings). Essentially, these are the releases that would have taken place at the end of Spring Training in March and at the end of Extended Spring Training this month during a normal season, but didn't because of the shutdown. J.J. Cooper and Chris Hilburn-Trenkle (subs. req'd) ran the numbers and found teams released 22-25 players on average from March through May the last two years, and 22-25 is about how many players most teams are releasing now. The Yankees had a larger number of releases -- but not as large as the Diamondbacks, who cut 64 (!) players -- because they have two extra minor league affiliates and that many more players under contract. Teams are not releasing good prospects or even fringe prospects. They're releasing organizational depth player types, many of whom would have become minor league free agents after the season. There's not going to be a minor league season, right? So why keep them around when you could save a few bucks. These are moves that would've happened during a normal season, but this is not a normal season, and teams releasing so many players all at once during a pandemic looks heartless. The Royals are no large market team and yet they are keeping all their minor league players this year. Here's what Royals GM Dayton Moore, a championship executive and someone universally respected throughout baseball, said about that (via Alec Lewis):

"Understand this: the minor league players, the players you'll never know about, the players that never get out of rookie ball or High-A, those players have as much impact on the growth of our game then 10-year or 15-year veteran players. They have as much opportunity to influence the growth of our game as those individuals who played for a long time because those individuals go back into their communities and teach the game, work in academies, are JuCo coaches, college coaches, scouts, coaches in pro baseball. They're growing the game constantly because they're so passionate about it. So we felt it was really, really important not to release one minor league player during this time, a time we needed to stand behind them."

When the time comes to sign undrafted free agents for $20,000 a pop, or lure minor league free agents away from other teams, or court scouting and coaching talent, the Royals will have a leg up on the competition because they treat their people well. They didn't kick them to the curb in the middle of a deadly global pandemic. Don't think people don't notice this or that it doesn't matter. The Athletics stopped paying their minor leaguers the $400 weekly stipend yesterday and the Nationals, a team only months removed from a World Series windfall, cut the stipend to $300 a week -- "I wish the owners really weighed how much that $100 they cut us back is saving them versus how much it helps put food on the table for us and our families," one Nationals minor leaguer told Brittany Ghiroli (subs. req'd) -- before their own players shamed them into paying the full $400. Thankfully the A's and Nationals are outliers. Most teams have extended the minor league stipend through at least June, with several pledging the stipend and benefits through the scheduled end of the minor league season in September (including the small market Marlins and Royals). The Yankees are among the teams to promise pay through only June, which is better than nothing. The releases are really disappointing though. Those are cold-blooded moves designed to save a little money and nothing more. You want to believe your favorite team is better than that and will take care of everyone in the organization, no matter how far down the minor league ladder they are, but most aren't. For shame. Lots of those kids will never play baseball again and I feel bad they didn't get one last chance to impress the higher ups.

3. What we've missed: May. Another month is in the books. This season was the first time baseball was not played on Memorial Day since 1880 -- 1880! -- and the everything goes perfectly scenario has no regular season games being played in June either. Best case is what, intrasquad and/or Spring Training games this month? And who even knows whether those will be televised. In March and April we missed out on Gerrit Cole's Yankees debut (duh), the new ballpark in Texas, and the Yankees getting plenty of opportunities to beat up on the Orioles and Tigers. Here's what we missed in May.

Hello, cheaters

The Yankees were scheduled to play their first series of the season against the Red Sox and Astros last month. The Red Sox were going to be in the Bronx for a three-game weekend series from May 8th to 10th. The Yankees would have then traveled to Houston for a three-gamer the following weekend. It can be easy to forget now given everything else going on, but opposing players were mad as hell about the sign-stealing scandals (plural) in Spring Training. "The range of emotions is huge: mad, frustrated, disappointed," Aaron Boone said in camp. "Just sick to my stomach. If I have a bad game and I mess up, I’m gonna stand in front of the mic and say, ‘Hey, I’m sorry, I messed up, I did this and that, and it’s on me.' And not to really hear that from some of the players, I think, bothered the baseball community. Bothered a lot of guys," Aaron Judge said. Gleyber Torres added: "It doesn’t respect baseball when you cheat. We feel frustration. We play our team legal and Houston doesn’t play legal." Not even three weeks ago Brian Cashman told Dan Martin there is still "a little bit of frustration," so it's not like the Yankees have forgotten about it. Players around the league were upset not only that the Astros and Red Sox stole signs illegally, but also that they were so unapologetic. When the Red Sox visited Yankee Stadium for the first time last month, they were going to really hear it. Moreso than usual. The trip to Minute Maid Park would've been different because that is their building -- the Astros aren't scheduled to play in Yankee Stadium until September, in the second-to-last series of the season, and that probably won't happen now given the regional schedule plan -- but that series would've been contentious, I think. Had the pandemic not turned the world upside down and all that anger and frustration had festered for weeks, I suspect the Red Sox and Astros series would've been more heated than usual last month. 

James Paxton's return

Two weeks ago Paxton declared himself "ready to go" following his early February back surgery. "I think I’ve thrown probably 12-14 bullpens. It’s feeling really good. Back is a non-issue," he added. The original timetable had Paxton returning in 3-4 months, so either May or June. May it would have been, apparently. J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery were set to compete for the fifth starter's job in Spring Training. Paxton's injury meant both would've been in the Opening Day rotation, then Luis Severino's injury meant someone else (Clarke Schmidt? Jonathan Loaisiga? an opener?) would've had to step in as the fifth starter. Given the schedule, the Yankees would have needed something like 10 starts from the fill-in fifth starter before Paxton returned. Going from the fifth starter hodgepodge to Paxton could've been an enormous upgrade depending which Paxton showed up. Either way, I am certain getting him back would've have been a welcome development. It always is when a talented player gets healthy.

MLB debuts?

May is typically a big month for prospect debuts. Cavan Biggio, Keston Hiura, Mitch Keller, Austin Riley, Brendan Rodgers, and Nick Senzel were all brought up last May. Teams keep their top guys down a few weeks to push back their free agency, then bring them up and plug them into the lineup. May's usually when it happens. The Yankees insist they do not manipulate service time -- "It’s not part of my evaluation process," Brian Cashman said in Spring Training 2018 when asked about Gleyber Torres -- but come on. Torres was kept down long enough to delay his free agency in 2018, and his return from Tommy John surgery gave the team the perfect excuse to keep him down. Luis Severino was kept in the minors juuust long enough to delay his free agency in 2016. He was called up when the Triple-A season ended, not when rosters expanded on Sept. 1st, and he fell two days short of a full year of service time. That pushed his free agency back from the 2021-22 offseason to the 2022-23 offseason (before the extension). The Yankees also kept Tommy Kahnle in Triple-A long enough to delay his free agency two years ago. No matter what they say, the Yankees manipulate service time. They do it and it's fine. Whatever. There are only two prospects in the system who could debut this season and are worth having their service time manipulated: Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt. Even that's pushing it because pitchers get hurt so often (Schmidt's blown out once already). Still, Garcia and Schmidt could have made their debuts last month. Forgot about service time manipulation. Sending them down for a few weeks out of Spring Training would've been perfectly reasonable, and May is when we could've seen "we've tried the other fifth starter candidates, time to try Deivi or Schmidt until James Paxton returns" call-ups. Albert Abreu, Brooks Kriske, and Nick Nelson could've debuted last month as well. Injuries might've even forced a Chris Gittens or Hoy Jun Park call-up. Who knows? Point is, May is when we likely would've seen some prospect debuts.

A tough schedule

The Yankees had a really weak schedule in March and April. They were scheduled to play 17 of their first 32 games against the Blue Jays, Orioles, and Tigers, and FanGraphs projects those teams at 75 wins or worse. The May schedule would've been much more challenging. The Yankees were supposed to play 28 games last month. Among those 28 were ...

• ... three games against the Red Sox.
• ... four games against the Rays.
• ... three games against the Astros.
• ... three games against the Brewers.
• ... three games against the Twins.
• ... three games against the Angels.

Only six of those 19 games (the Red Sox and Twins series) would've been at home too. FanGraphs projects all six of those teams at 83 wins or better and three of the six at 89 wins or better. Nineteen of the 28 games in May were against good to great teams, and 13 of those 19 games would've been on the road. Tough! The toughest month, in fact. By a good margin too. Here are the Yankees' month-by-month opponent's projected winning percentages:

• March and April: .458
• May: .505
• June: .472
• July: .499
• August: .497
• September: .500

First of all, holy crap March and April. Talk about an opportunity to get off to a fast start. Too bad the Yankees lost out on that. And second, wow are there a lot of bad teams out there. A sub-.500 opponent's winning percentage in four of the six months? I get the numbers are skewed a bit because the Yankees don't have to play the Yankees, but my goodness. May was going to be their most difficult month, at least on paper. That makes missing out on a weak April a little easier to swallow.

4. 2020 draft prospect: RHP Cade Cavalli and RHP Slade Cecconi. The Yankees will have only three picks and a $3.7M maximum bonus pool during this year's five-round draft, and between now and the June 10th draft date, I'm going to break down potential Yankees targets. We've already covered RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Nick Bitsko, RHP Tanner Burns, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, C Dillon Dingler, LHP Jake Eder, 2B Justin Foscue, SS Nick Loftin, RHP J.T. Ginn, OF Isaiah Greene, RHP Bryce Jarvis, LHP Luke Little, RHP Max Meyer, RHP Bobby Miller, 1B Aaron Sabato, RHP C.J. Van Eyk, and C Austin Wells. Cavalli (29th round in 2017) and Cecconi (38th round in 2018) were well-regarded high schoolers who slipped into the late rounds due to injuries. Cavalli wound up at Oklahoma and spent two years as a two-way player before committing to pitching full-time this spring. He had 3.28 ERA with 59 strikeouts and 35 walks in 60.1 innings last season while hitting .319/.393/.611 as a first baseman. This season he had a 4.18 ERA with 37 strikeouts and only five walks in 23.2 innings prior to the shutdown. Cecconi, meanwhile, threw 80 innings with a 4.16 ERA and 89/18 K/BB as a freshman at Miami last year. In four starts this spring he had a 3.80 ERA with 30 strikeouts and seven walks in 21.1 innings. MLB.com ranks Cavalli as the 22nd best prospect in the draft class and Cecconi as the 31st best. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks them 22nd and 31st, respectively. The Yankees hold the 28th pick. Here's a snippet of MLB's report on Cavalli (here's video):

Cavalli produces some of the easiest velocity in his Draft class, working at 92-96 mph and topping out at 98 with riding action while expending barely more effort than he would playing catch. He also can make hitters look bad with a low-80s curveball with power and depth, and he has developed an upper-80s slider/cutter that is catching up to his curve. He shows the potential for an average changeup once he starts using the pitch more often ... His lack of command and deception also means that his premium stuff gets hit harder than it should.

And here's a chunk of MLB's scouting report on Cecconi (here's video):

His fastball is regularly up to 96 mph, though his velocity drops off as he goes deeper into starts. Cecconi can be up in the zone too much and gets hit, especially when his velo declines. He throws two breaking balls, with his slider the better of the two, especially when he throws it hard, up to 87 mph. Then it's like a hard cutter with late action and power to it, but he has some arm action issues with it when it's slower and he can get around it at times. He has a changeup, but it's not a real factor, and his curve is in some ways his fourth pitch. He throws strikes, but his command within the zone needs to be refined.

Kiley McDaniel says the Yankees have been connected to both pitchers the last few weeks. As noted earlier, both Cavalli (back issue in 2017 and stress reaction in his arm in 2019) and Cecconi (reportedly an oblique in 2018) have an injury history, though Cavalli's comes with more long-term worry. Cavalli has similarities to Clarke Schmidt circa 2017 in that it's premium stuff with command and health worries. I'm not sure he'll be on the board when the Yankees pick because stuff like that usually doesn't last long. Cecconi is a different animal because there's some arm action funkiness and reliever risk. Also, he's a draft-eligible sophomore with added leverage, though I imagine whichever team drafts him will have pinned down his signability before actually drafting him. This draft class is heavy on pitching and chances are several quality arms -- mid-first round arms in a typical draft -- will still be on the board when the Yankees pick. At that point it comes down how much information a team has on a player and their organizational preferences. Things like that. Cavalli and Cecconi are good pitching prospects who may or may not be available to the Yankees. I prefer Cavalli despite the injury concerns because it's wow stuff, and I don't see much point in forecasting pitcher health when they're this far away from the big leagues anyway. They're all risky. (If you're interested, I guessed my way through another mock draft at CBS.)

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Sal Fasano. By request, our next random Yankee was a journeyman catcher and one of many who had to chop off a whole bunch of hair when he joined the team. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Melky Mesa, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Mark Reynolds, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. Fasano originally joined the Yankees as a non-roster player in 2004 and he spent that entire season with Triple-A Columbus. He hit .229/.273/.428 with 10 home runs in 76 games while sharing time behind the plate with top prospect Dioner Navarro. Fasano spent 2005 with the Orioles and he began 2006 as Mike Lieberthal's backup with the Phillies. Infielder Alex Gonzalez retired in May and the club called up Chris Coste to take his spot on the roster. Coste went on a nice little hot streak (18-for-55 in 21 games) and, prior to the deadline, the Phillies committed to him as their backup catcher and designated Fasano for assignment. The Yankees acquired Fasano four days later, on July 26th, for fringe infield prospect Hector Made, who was out of baseball by 2008. Fasano hit .243/.284/.386 with the Phillies and was replacing Kelly Stinnett, who hit .228/.282/.304 as Jorge Posada's backup. "We are just trying to upgrade. Even if it’s incremental. We had him before and (first base coach Lee) Mazzilli had him in Baltimore (when he was their manager). Kelly just didn’t work out. We are seeing if we can do a little better. There are no promises," Brian Cashman told George King following the trade. Fasano estimated he cut about 20 inches of hair off his head. The obligatory before and after photos:

"There are two feelings (when you get designated for assignment). You wonder if you are going to get a job and then you wonder if you are going to get a job with a contender. When I heard the Yankees were interested, it changed the whole demeanor of the house because my wife was upset (about leaving Philadelphia)," Fasano told King. Posada was locked in as the starter so Fasano didn't play a whole lot -- he started 16 of the 63 games he was on the roster -- though I remember one particular week in August when it was brutally hot, and Joe Torre made Fasano wear it to preserve Posada. Fasano started three times in five games during the heat wave and replaced Posada in the late innings in the other two games (both blowouts). Rough, but the life of a journeyman backup catcher. Fasano went 7-for-49 (.143) with one home run in 28 games as a Yankee, so he was a downgrade from Stinnett, but he was also a fan favorite. Mustachioed guys named Sal are easy to root for, I guess. Plus he was lauded as a great clubhouse guy who was beloved by teammates. Fasano did not play in the postseason that year (duh) -- his only career postseason appearance came with the Athletics against the Yankees in Game 5 of the 2000 ALDS (this game) -- and he spent 2007 with the Blue Jays, 2008 with the Indians, and 2009 in Triple-A with the Rockies. He retired at age 38 during the 2009-10 offseason -- Fasano was a career .221/.295/.392 hitter with nine teams in parts of 11 big league seasons -- and the Blue Jays named him their Low-A manager in 2010. No coaching apprenticeship or anything. Playing one year and managing the next. "(Blue Jays assistant general manager Tony LaCava) called me and asked me what my plans were for next year, and at the time I wasn't really sure. I know that if I had to play this year, I would have had to have a couple knee surgeries, and I didn't really want to have to do that. So they basically made me a really good offer and told me I could have the job I really would like to have, so I took it. So I get to be the manager of the Lansing Lugnuts, in A-ball. I'm pretty happy about that," he told George Campbell in March 2010. Fasano has been coaching ever since. He managed Toronto's Low-A affiliate in 2010, their Double-A affiliate in 2011, served as their minor league catching instructor from 2012-16, managed the Angels' Double-A affiliate in 2017, then joined the Braves as their big league catching coach in 2018. He is still on their Major League coaching staff. Playing the sport's most demanding position and being good to your teammates and coaches can take you a long way in this game, even as a former 37th round draft pick.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. The first Luis Severino rehab update has arrived. Severino is still in the "strength building exercises" phase and is at least a month or two away from throwing. It's early, but so far, so good. “I’ve been down in Tampa since the day after I had my surgery. I do arm bike, dumbbell exercises, and I just follow the routine that (trainers) Timmy (Lentych) and Alfonso (Malaguti) plan out for me. I spend an hour and half with them in the trainer’s room before I move into the gym, every day, five days a week. Things have been progressing well. I’ve been making steady progress lifting, doing exercises ... I’m doing everything I need to do right now so that I can start throwing this summer," Severino told George King. Severino had his surgery on Feb. 27th, so he's a little more than three months out now  ... A few weeks back I mentioned the Yankees are expected to sign Dominican shortstop Hans Montero, Dominican catcher Samuel Basallo, and Venezuelan catcher Jesus Galiz whenever the 2020-21 international signing period opens (MLB can push it back from July 2nd all the way to next January). Ben Badler (subs. req'd) now reports Basallo is expected to sign with the Orioles for $1.5M instead. The Yankees forfeited $1M in international bonus money to sign Gerrit Cole and teams can't trade for bonus pool money this year, so they have a $4.4M pool. It's likely they simply ran out of money to sign Basallo once the March agreement changed the rules. Bummer. Anyway, Badler (subs. req'd) says the Yankees are also linked to Dominican outfielder Fidel Montero, a player with "impressive raw tools who shows up-and-down game performance." Looks like that's the 2020-21 international haul. Galiz and the two Monteros, plus assorted smaller bonus guys. Hopefully these Monteros works out better than the last one.

(Send you questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)