May 29th, 2020: Economic Proposal, Memorable At-Bats, 2020 Draft, Bryant, Tauchman

I've been instructed to inform you Patreon is required by law to start collecting sales tax on July 1st. They're going to send you an email about it next week. Depending where you live, you'll automatically be charged an extra 0-30 cents starting July 1st, and the money goes right to Uncle Sam. To be perfectly honest, I'm not even sure whether this product qualifies for sales tax, so you might not be charged tax at all. I went through the advanced settings on my end to ensure everyone is taxed correctly and all that. Anyway, that's that. Let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Latest economic proposal. I suppose we should discuss the latest economic proposal, so let's do it first and as quickly as possible to get it out of the way. Earlier this week MLB backed away from the 50-50 revenue sharing split and instead proposed a sliding salary scale with postseason bonuses for every player -- the highest paid players would take the largest pay cut and the lowest paid would be made close to whole* -- that was dead on arrival. It was a transparent attempt to divide the union both short-term and leading into next year's Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations. MLB knew the union would never go for it, so they leaked it to the media to make the players look greedy. Par for the course. Max Scherzer, a highly respected player and a high ranking official in the MLBPA, issued a statement Wednesday night saying the union will not discuss salaries further:

“After discussing the latest developments with the rest of the players there’s no reason to engage with MLB in any further compensation reductions. We have previously negotiated a pay cut in the version of prorated salaries, and there’s no justification to accept a 2nd pay cut based upon the current information the union has received. I’m glad to hear other players voicing the same viewpoint and believe MLB’s economic strategy would completely change if all documentation were to become public information.”

Ken Rosenthal, Evan Drellich (subs. req'd), and Jeff Passan report the MLBPA will counter MLB's proposal by asking for a longer season (likely 110 games) with full prorated salaries (so no change to the March compensation agreement). The more games they play, the more money the players make (and the more money teams make, presumably). Beyond that though, the counter-proposal is strategic. Eugene Freedman, a labor lawyer and Baseball Prospectus contributor who knows a hell of a lot more about this stuff than I do, says the counter-proposal is designed to challenge a clause in the March agreement that gives commissioner Rob Manfred the "unilateral ability to determine whether the season will begin, and by extension, a heavy influence on what type of schedule will be played." Basically, the MLBPA is saying you are trying to reopen the salary agreement, so we want to reopen the commissioner's unilateral ability to schedule the season, something MLB will never allow. Freedman says the MLBPA has "found a very strong way of proving its point that the March agreement is in full force and effect and should not be reopened." MLB's proposal and the MLBPA's counter-proposal will go nowhere and lead to a stalemate, which seems bad, but talking to people who've covered previous labor disputes, this is standard operating procedure. The two sides sabre-rattle for a little bit then get down to business for real. The difference here is this agreement determines when the season will begin, and there's some real urgency to wrap this up soon. CBA negotiations typically take place behind the scenes during the summer and early in the offseason, when there is plenty of time to work things out. MLB and the MLBPA are said to be a ways apart on health and safety issues but I don't think either side will blow up a season over hot tub access or prepackaged postgame meals or a ban on spitting or something like that. Those issues can be resolved. The money will determine whether we get a season. Will the owners honor the March agreement and potentially take a loss this year (losses they could recover in the future, unlike a player who has a relatively short career span), or will the players cave and accept further salary reductions, even in the form of full prorated pay with interest-free deferrals? I expect there to be a season -- they'll begin the season, but whether COVID-19 allows them to finish it is another matter -- because there is simply too much to be lost without one. It's not just money either. Losing a season to a money dispute at a time when tens of millions are losing their jobs would do incalculable damage to the sport long-term. It would make the 1994-95 work stoppage look like child's play.

* Jeff Passan has the details on the sliding salary scale and it is annoyingly complicated. It's not simply "you make this much, so your pay is cut this percent." Players receive a certain percentage of the first $563,500 they make (the league minimum), a certain percentage of the next $436,500 they make (the league minimum to $1M), a certain percentage of the next $4M they make, on and on until they get to $20M+. The calculation uses prorated pay, so the $20M+ tier serves no purpose because no one will make over $20M prorated in an 82-game season (several would in a 110-game season). I ran the numbers for the Yankees and, assuming I did it correctly, here's what we get:

• 2020 full season payroll: $228,348,586 (not counting Jacoby Ellsbury)
• 82-game prorated payroll: $115,449,934
• Sliding scale payroll: $60,801,116

Here's my spreadsheet. That covers full MLB salaries for all 40-man roster players, which isn't how it would work during a normal season because some players would make less while in the minors. This gets us in the ballpark though. The sliding scale cuts full season payroll by 73.4%. To put it another way, it chops an additional 47.3% off the prorated salaries. The Yankees are an outlier because they have a lot of highly paid players -- from what I understand the sliding scale works out to a 33% reduction from prorated salaries league-wide -- who slide into the highest salary reduction tiers, but still, the MLBPA called the sliding scale a "massive" pay reduction and you can see why.

2. Memorable at-bats. Okay, let's talk baseball now. I'm not sure how many of you listen to the Effectively Wild podcast, but if you're looking for baseball talk, I highly recommend it. I listened to this episode earlier this week, in which Ben and Sam discussed Mike Trout's best at-bat. In a recent interview Trout said his best at-bat came against Max Scherzer in the All-Star Game a few years ago. An at-bat in a meaningless game? Weird, but Scherzer owned Trout up to that point, and it was a good hard fought at-bat that resulted in a walk. I guess players get so locked into the competition that the setting doesn't really matter. Trout is proud he was able to win a tough battle against a great opponent. Anyway, the discussion had me thinking about the best at-bats in recent Yankees history. Since the current core emerged in 2017, let's say. When you think "good at-bat," you think a long at-bat with foul balls and tough takes, that sorta thing. You don't think about the first pitch ambush homer even though I'd argue that's a great at-bat. Four at-bats immediately jumped to mind as good at-bats within the last few years. Let's review them chronologically. (Feel free to send in any other good at-bats you remember and we can cover them in the future.)

2017 ALDS Game 4: Aaron Judge vs. Trevor Bauer

Going into Game 4, Judge was 0-for-10 with eight strikeouts in the ALDS. The Indians and their top notch pitching staff buried him with elevated fastballs and breaking balls in the dirt all series. It was capital-U Ugly. Judge struck out again in his first at-bat of Game 4. The finish pitch was a fastball up and out of the strike zone:

The Yankees jumped on Bauer in the second inning and were up 2-0 when Judge stepped to the plate with runners on second and third and two outs. Bauer started him with two breaking balls for called strikes and a quick 0-2 count. From there the at-bat went breaking ball (ball), breaking ball (ball), fastball (foul), breaking ball (foul), breaking ball (ball), elevated fastball (two-run double). Judge had flailed so helplessly against breaking balls in the series up to that point, then it was like someone flipped a switch. He spit on a few nasty breakers out of the zone, turned the 0-2 count into a 3-2 count, then smashed a double on the same elevated fastball he struck out on in the previous inning. Here's the at-bat video. The Yankees were playing a win or go home game and their biggest star came through with a great at-bat and a huge hit to give his team breathing room.

2017 ALDS Game 5: Brett Gardner vs. Cody Allen

I think this is the most famous Yankees at-bat since this core emerged in 2017. It's gotta be, right? The Yankees had a one-run lead and were three outs away from completing the ALDS comeback when Gardner stepped in against Allen. Allen jumped ahead in the count 1-2, then Gardner dug in and battled like few others can. He worked the count back full, fouled away five straight two-strike pitches, then hooked a two-run single to right field on the 12th pitch of the at-bat (we can thank some defensive funny business for allowing Todd Frazier to score from first). Here is the at-bat video. I will forever love the stare:

After Gardner fouled away the fifth pitch of the at-bat, he shot a little look at Allen, probably unintentionally, but I remember seeing it live and thinking Gardner just said "there is no effin' way you're getting me out." That monster at-bat scored two huge insurance runs and more or less clinched the ALDS win. I would remiss if I did not mention a) Frazier worked a nine-pitch walk as the previous batter -- Allen had already thrown 26 pitches in the inning when Gardner stepped in -- and, b) it was Gardner's second 12-pitch at-bat of the game. Yes. He had a 12-pitch at-bat against Andrew Miller leading off the fifth inning. Gardner struck out, so we don't remember it, but lordy, a lefty putting up a 12-pitch at-bat against peak Miller is more impressive than a 12-pitch at-bat against Allen, no? Miller ate lefties alive in those days and Gardner was able to hang in for 12 pitches. Here is that at-bat video. Brett saw 34 pitches in his five plate appearances that game and that includes a first pitch pop-up in the first inning. Six-pitch single in the third, 12-pitch strikeout in the fifth, three-pitch single in the seventh, 12-pitch single in the ninth. Man, I'm gonna miss that guy.

May 17th, 2019: Gleyber Torres vs. Jose Alvarado

Not a postseason game but an important game nonetheless. The Yankees fell 5.5 games behind the Rays only 13 games into last season and this walk-off win moved them into first place for the first time since Opening Day. They spent all but two days in first place the rest of the year. Tampa Bay took a 3-1 lead into the ninth inning and Luke Voit greeted Alvarado with a first pitch homer. Gary Sanchez then lined a single to left and was replaced by pinch-runner Thairo Estrada. Kendrys Morales struck out -- remember when Kendrys Morales was a Yankee? -- setting up the Torres vs. Alvarado matchup. Gleyber fell behind 1-2, fouled away four straight two-strike pitches, worked the count back full, then jumped on a down and in fastball for a double to the warning track. No run scored, but it put the tying run at third and the winning run at second, and Gio Urshela eventually walked it off with a line drive over Kevin Kiermaier's head in center. Here's the at-bat video. Alvarado is nasty. He sits 99 mph from the left side and has a really good breaking ball. Gleyber battled for nine pitches before Alvarado finally made a mistake -- it wasn't even that bad a pitch, Torres just beat him to the spot -- with the tenth pitch. As noted earlier, the win moved the Yankees into first place, where they'd stay pretty much the entire rest of the season. Veteran at-bat from the second year player.

2019 ALCS Game 5: Aaron Hicks vs. Justin Verlander

I'm not sure what impresses me most about this at-bat. Is it the fact Hicks did it despite a torn elbow ligament and looming Tommy John surgery? Or that he fell behind in the count 0-2 -- opponents hit .106/.120/.187 with a 60.8% strikeout rate following an 0-2 count against Verlander last year -- and managed to work it back full? Or maybe it's that he kept the ball fair? I dunno. DJ LeMahieu started the first inning with a solo homer, and the Yankees had runners on second and third with one out when Hicks stepped in. The Yankees were actually getting to Verlander and needed to capitalize seeing how they were down 3-1 in the series. Verlander caught the corner with a first pitch breaking ball and Hicks swung over a mistake slider in the middle of the zone on the next pitch. I remember seeing that pitch live and thinking Hickie missed his pitch. That was the one he had to hit. Verlander missed above the zone with two fastballs and a cement mixer breaking ball to push the count full. Another mistake breaking ball followed -- it wasn't as middle-middle as the second pitch of the at-bat, but that didn't matter -- and Hicks was able to yank it to right and off the foul pole for a three-run home run. Here's the at-bat video. Hicks went down with his elbow injury on August 3rd. I have no idea how he missed two months and came back in the ALCS having the quality of at-bats he had (against that pitching staff, no less). The home run was his sixth time reaching base in 11 plate appearances in the series to that point. That home run helped the Yankees extend their season. Less than two weeks later Hicks was on the operating table having his elbow rebuilt. Wild.

3. 2020 draft prospects: Mississippi State 2B Justin Foscue and Baylor SS Nick Loftin. The Yankees will have only three picks and a $3.7M maximum bonus pool during this year's five-round draft, and between now and the June 10th draft date, I'm going to break down potential Yankees targets. We've already covered RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Nick Bitsko, RHP Tanner Burns, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, C Dillon Dingler, LHP Jake Eder, RHP J.T. Ginn, OF Isaiah Greene, RHP Bryce Jarvis, LHP Luke Little, RHP Max Meyer, RHP Bobby Miller, 1B Aaron Sabato, RHP C.J. Van Eyk, and C Austin Wells. I'm going to cover two players today because a) they're somewhat similar college middle infielders, and b) the clock is ticking with the draft only 12 days a way, and I have a few more players I want to cover between now and then. Foscue and Loftin were both undrafted out of high school three years ago and are now poised to be first round picks. Foscue really broke out as a sophomore last year (.331/.395/.564 with 14 homers in 67 games) and hit .321/.464/.509 with two homers in 16 games prior to the shutdown. Loftin's numbers are not as impressive as Foscue's -- he hit .323/.380/.502 with six homers as a sophomore and .298/.339/.544 with two homers in 14 games this spring -- though he performed well against top competition in the wood bat Cape Cod League last summer. MLB.com ranks Foscue as the 32nd best prospect in the draft class and Loftin the 36th best. Baseball America (subs. req'd) has them 40th and 29th, respectively. Here's what MLB's scouting report says about Foscue (here's video):

He provides more offense than most at his position, using strength, bat speed and a pull-heavy approach to generate plenty of power from the right side of the plate. Though he has an aggressive mentality, he has no difficulties making regular contact and projects as a 20-homer threat without excessive strikeouts. Foscue records below-average run times out of the batter's box but shows closer to average speed once he gets going. His arm and range are ordinary at second base, though he has good hands and instincts and turns the double-play pivot well. He might be able to handle third base at the next level but shortstop would be a stretch, limiting his potential utility value.

And here's what MLB's report says about Loftin (here's video):

Loftin is more of a competent than flashy defender at shortstop, where his instincts help him play quicker than his pure speed. He has solid arm strength and should be able to stay at short at the next level ... Using an efficient right-handed swing, Loftin focuses on making contact and ranked 12th in NCAA Division I with 13.8 at-bats per strikeout as a sophomore. While he does have some sneaky power, he's mostly content with hitting line drives to all fields. He has average speed out of the batter's box and isn't much of a threat to steal, though he is faster once he gets going.

Foscue and Loftin are both right-handed hitters and, for what it's worth, Jim Callis hears the Yankees have been in on both in recent weeks. They hold the 28th overall pick. It seems Foscue offers more offensive upside but is also more one-dimensional. Depending what you think about Vanderbilt's Austin Martin's defense -- Martin is a candidate to go No. 1 overall and is unlikely to make it out of the top three -- Loftin might be the best true shortstop in the draft class, and for that reason I expect him to go higher than Foscue and definitely in the first round somewhere. Also, Loftin played five positions competently with Team USA last summer (second, short, third, left, right), indicating he could fall back on other positions if shortstop doesn't work out (at worst) or offer the positional flexibility modern teams love (at best). Would you rather have Dan Uggla or J.J. Hardy? They were both +4 WAR players at their peak but they got there in different ways. Foscue's the bat first second baseman like Uggla and Loftin is the steady yet unspectacular shortstop like Hardy. My preference is Foscue -- ask me again in five minutes and I might change my mind -- because there's a chance for more with the bat, and it's not like his glove is terrible according to MLB's report. And besides, it's easier to hide a subpar defender these days thanks to the shift and optimized positioning. Of course, this decision might be made for the Yankees. Foscue and/or Loftin could be off the board by time their first round pick comes around. This draft is deep in pitching and thin on middle infielders, and the Yankees could take advantage by scooping up a top middle infielder in the first round, and still getting two pretty good arms with their next two picks. (For what it's worth, Callis says the Yankees are hoping to do exactly that, land a quality bat in the first round before going after pitching later.)

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Colin Curtis. By request, our next random Yankee is a player who hit one of the most unusual first MLB home runs in recent memory. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Melky Mesa, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Mark Reynolds, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. The Yankees selected Curtis out of Arizona State in the fourth round of the 2006 draft -- 10 of their top 20 picks that draft reached the show, including each of the top five -- and he was a good minor league player who reached Double-A in June 2007 and Triple-A in June 2009. Curtis tore up the Arizona Fall League in 2009 (.397/.472/.731 with five home runs in 20 games) and earned a non-roster invite to Spring Training in 2010. He went 6-for-12 with two homers during Grapefruit League play and I remember some faint cries for him to make the Opening Day roster, but that was never going to happen. Curtis began the season with Triple-A Scranton and hit .280/.357/.368 in his first 34 games. For whatever reason, the Yankees were carrying three catchers in late June, so they cut Chad Moeller and called up Curtis prior to a slate of interleague games in National League parks. He made his MLB debut as a pinch-hitter in Arizona on June 21st and recorded his first hit, a two-run pinch-hit double against Chad Qualls, the next day. Curtis pinch-hit and saw spot start duty over the next few weeks -- he appeared in 13 of the team's 22 games from June 21st to July 20th -- but wasn't very productive, going 6-for-26 (.231) with three doubles. He did, however, drive in the game-tying run with a ground out the night the Yankees scored four runs in the ninth inning and broke Jonathan Broxton. Here's the video. Curtis' signature moment as a big leaguer came on July 22nd. Javy Vazquez turned an early 6-0 lead into a 6-5 lead by the middle innings, and the Yankees had two on with one out when Brett Gardner came to the plate against Scot Shields in the seventh. He fouled away the first pitch, then took a fastball inside for what he thought was a ball. The umpired called it a strike. Gardner didn't like it, so he argued and was quickly ejected. It was a real quick hook. "Having a glass of Gatorade, sitting on the bench, then Gardy got thrown out. I had to grab the bat real quick and run out there," Curtis told Anthony Rieber following the game. Curtis replaced Gardner, inherited the 0-2 count, took three straight balls to run the count full, then snuck his first MLB home run into the short porch. Here's the video. Derek Jeter pushed him out of the dugout for a curtain call -- "I had no idea what to do," Curtis said -- and Gardner jokingly told him, "You're welcome," in the clubhouse afterward. "That was the thrill of a lifetime," Curtis added. The Yankees sent Curtis to Triple-A after acquiring Austin Kearns at the deadline. He returned as a Sept. call-up but didn't play much, and finished his Yankees career with a .186/.250/.288 batting line and the one homer in 31 games and 64 plate appearances. Curtis suffered a major shoulder injury diving for a ball in Spring Training 2011 and missed the season after surgery. He returned in 2012, hit .220/.308/.300 in 71 Triple-A games, then was released in early August. Curtis finished 2012 with the independent Somerset Patriots and hit .308/.368/.391 with one homer in 41 games. He never played baseball again. By no means was Curtis a great prospect -- he was 27 when he reported to Spring Training in 2012 -- but he was a lefty hitting outfielder, and those guys can hang around a while as platoon bats and fourth outfielders, particularly in the National League. The shoulder injury really derailed his career. It took away from his already limited power and robbed him of a peak year. From hitting pinch-hit homers at Yankee Stadium one year to suffering a career-altering injury the next to being out of the game the year after that. This game is cruel. These days Curtis is in the (family?) real estate business in Seattle.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. John Ourand reports the various networks are considering adding artificial crown noise to their broadcasts when baseball returns without fans. Some soccer broadcasts are doing this already. Here's video. I think I would prefer listening to the sounds of the game and (empty) ballpark than what amounts to a laugh track, but I've never actually listened to a game in an empty stadium before, so I dunno. Maybe playing music during the game would be a more fun option? I don't feel strongly about this either way, and I suspect most viewers would rather have artificial crown noise than no crowd noise, so go for it. Let's just hope the artificial crown still boos the crap out of the Astros on the road ... And finally, shame on the Athletics for cutting minor league pay effective June 1st. Back in March, MLB announced all minor leaguers will continue to receive a $400 weekly stipend (the equivalent of Spring Training per diem and not exactly a livable wage) through May 31st. The A's are the only team to announce they will stop payment after that date. The Marlins -- the Marlins! -- have announced they will continue paying their minor leaguers through August. Do you know how much you have to screw up for the MARLINS to make you look bad financially? $400 a week for 300 minor leaguers -- most teams have something like 250-300 non-40-man roster players under contract (the Yankees have roughly 330 because they have two rookie Gulf Coast League teams) -- is $120,000 a week, or about $1.8M through the scheduled end of the minor league season in early September. If a Major League franchise doesn't have $1.8M in a rainy day fund somewhere, the team should be sold. Embarrassing for the A's and MLB. (The Yankees have not announced any plans for minor league pay yet, though I would be stunned if it is not extended beyond May 31st. Also, Brendan Kuty reports the team will continue to pay their non-player employees in full through at least June 15th. Several other teams, including the Athletics, Angels, and Rays, have already furloughed some front office people. Hell, the Angels furloughed their amateur scouts two weeks prior to the draft.)

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Cameron asks: I was thinking about potential trades Yankees could make with teams trying to shed payroll. What about a Gio Urshela+ Kris Bryant trade? They seemingly wanted to trade him before the shutdown, and they likely won’t look to pay him when he hits FA. Urshela will be pretty cheap through arb until 2024.

This is similar to my ongoing Francisco Lindor fantasy, though the Cubs presumably have a more money than the Indians, and are more likely to keep Bryant long-term. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts recently said the club makes 70% of its revenue from gate receipts (tickets, etc.), and sorry, I'm gonna need to see some evidence before I believe that.

Bryant was on the market this winter, though his lingering service time grievance meant a deal was impossible. Teams didn't know whether they'd get one year of Bryant or two years. The Cubs predictably won the grievance -- it's close to impossible to prove a team kept a player down for service time reasons -- so he's under control through 2021.

The Cubs could easily plug David Bote in at third base, so I'm not sure they'd target Urshela. Chicago desperately needs pitching right now. The farm system is thin on upper level arms and three of their top five starters (Tyler Chatwood, Jon Lester, Jose Quintana) will be free agents after this season. Maybe they'd want Jordan Montgomery instead?

Acquiring a star-caliber player in a salary dump trade gets an easy thumbs up from me, even if that player will become a free agent next winter. I prefer Lindor to Bryant because I think he's a better player who fits the roster better (switch-hitter, middle infielder, etc.), but I'd happily take Bryant too. Wouldn't count on this happening but I like the idea.

John asks: I know there are a lot of different outlets doing simulation seasons. One that keeps catching my eye in my email is the baseball reference one. They are simulating the 2020 season assuming we lived in a world without covid. Their OPS leaders so far into the season are as follows:

1. Soto
2. Bellinger
3. Tauchman

Clearly whatever inputs and assumptions they are using are very high on him (Torres is also number 9 in league OPS). If July last year wasn't a fluke, what do you think Tauchman's ceiling is? Could he really end up as a top 20 outfielder in baseball or even top 10? He is a late bloomer (turning 30 later this year) but having be a 150 game/year and 3-4 WAR player for the next few years in LF would be huge.

Am I bad fan for not paying attention to any of the simulated seasons going on around the internet? I totally get why some people choose to follow it -- who the hell am I to tell anyone how to enjoy sports? -- but it's not my cup of tea. Here's the hub for Baseball Reference's simulated season. Peruse at your leisure.

Mike Tauchman was incredible last year, hitting .277/.361/.504 (128 wRC+) with +2.6 fWAR and +3.8 WAR in only 87 games. That's best case scenario stuff right there. Despite all that, I remain a grumpy Tauchman non-believer, and wish those 296 plate appearances would've gone to Clint Frazier instead, because I believe in Frazier as the more long-term piece.

For starters, I absolutely do not buy the defensive numbers. Tauchman ranked sixth among outfielders with +18 DRS despite being 80th in innings. That's small sample size noise to the max. I do think Tauchman's an above-average defender but not that good. The fact the Yankees played 36-year-old Brett Gardner in center over Tauchman backs up my point, I believe. The Yankees would've put the younger player in the more demanding position if they thought his defense was truly that good. Tauchman's WAR was inflated a bit.

Secondly, Tauchman's contact quality wasn't great. His exit velocity (88.5 mph) and hard-hit rates (39.2%) were league average-ish, and the expected power numbers don't match up. It was a .412 expected slugging percentage and a .323 expected wOBA against a .504 actual slugging percentage and a .364 actual wOBA. Hooray for the short porch and juiced ball. Either Tauchman will have to start hitting the ball harder or he's at risk of major regression.

And third, I wouldn't expect any player to put up a .444 BABIP against same-side pitchers again. Tauchman hit .357/.446/.529 against lefties last year thanks to that .444 BABIP. No. Just no. His .247/.329/.495 line against righties was really good though! His tendency to swing through fastballs in the zone (19.6% whiffs-per-swing vs. 16.4% league average) combined with the underwhelming contact quality leaves me skeptical.

That all said, what Tauchman did last year is in the bank, and it helped the Yankees win a lot of games. Also, Tauchman did make some mechanical changes in Triple-A in 2017, and his numbers improved quite a bit after that, so maybe this is his true talent level. I'm willing to defer to the Yankees here. They're adept at finding hidden gems in other organizations and who am I to say Tauchman is not just another example after the year he had?

I see Tauchman as a good fourth outfielder more than a bona fide starter (or especially a top 20 outfielder in the sport as some of the projections and simulations say). I'm wrong all the time (like, all the time) and if you're going to put money on the Yankees being right or Axisa being right, I'd bet against myself. It's just my opinion that Tauchman isn't really as good as he was last year. Feel free to bookmark this so you can mock me in the future.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)