Its amazing that the most common comment on the SpaceX busted video (Part 1) was Elon Musk fans saying how stupid I was for not including inflation in the comparison between the shuttle launches and spacex.
The fact that I did include inflation really didn’t seem to bother them at all! Yes, facts didn’t seem to bother Spacex fans… who could have seen that coming!
When you compare the litany of futuristic promises that Elon Musk has made (Hyperloop, supersonic vertical take off and landing electric jets, revolutionary batteries, revolutionary tunneling, propulsively landing 2 dragon capsules on mars by 2020… etc ) compared to the meagre deliveries, the guy has a serious credibility issue. Its actually pretty amazing that anyone still defends ‘the boy who cried technowonder’ at this point.
Several independent lines of reasoning all give the concordant answer that while spacex is competitive as a launch provider, they are not revolutionary. Spacex is finding out what the shuttle found out 40 years ago. Its actually quite difficult even to get to the break even point with reusable rocketcraft, let alone have it be more efficient! This was my prediction back in 2016, when Elon Musk was claiming that he would land a dragon capsule on Mars every 2 years!