Updated: Housekeeping - Reminder No SITREP Saturday Some Quick Updates

This is my day of rest, so the bar is World War III, or it didn't happen. Happy to report World War III did not start today.

RUSSIA-UKRAINE

Ukrainian forces pushed Russian troops back a little more in western and northwestern Marinka. The map was adjusted (commitment to updated 7X a week stands). There are reports that Russian forces reached the wall at the very northeastern tip of the Avdiivka Coke Plant south of Stepove. We reviewed the video last night, and there was a squad of Russian soldiers, with at least two wounded, at the outside of the wall. However, the weather was perfectly clear, and the ground had no snow or significant mud. In our assessment, this is an older video recorded around the same time the Ukrainian Bradley Fighting Vehicle was firing on Russian troops before the November 26-27 megastorm. Out of an abundance of caution, and because we aren't doing geolocation work today, the gray zone was expanded east of Stepove, but don't read too much into it.

If you're hearing/reading reports of Russian advances west of Kreminna, back in September, we had geolocated Russian troops in these same areas and already adjusted the map. It doesn't make us more "right" or other sources"wrong." It's possible we had access to information they didn't. So consider this an acknowledgment that there are reports of Russian advances west of Kreminna, but we previously assessed these areas as under Russian control.

ISRAEL-HAMAS

Editor's Note: The original version started with, "The United States issued its more critical statement..."

It should have said, "The United States issued its most critical statement..."

The original version has been edited, and we thank you for your understanding.

The United States issued its most critical statement about how Israel is conducting its war against Israel. United States Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told attendees of a security conference in Washington D.C., "Like Hamas, ISIS was deeply embedded in urban areas. And the international coalition against ISIS worked hard to protect civilians and create humanitarian corridors, even during tough battles. So, the lesson is not that you can win in urban warfare by protecting civilians. The lesson is that you can only win in urban warfare by protecting civilians...if you drive [civilians] into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat."
Quick Assessment: History has repeatedly shown that high rates of civilian casualties during war fuels insurgency. Austin is correct, and Israel isn't just losing the information space war; it is lost. There are complex reasons why this happened that would become "work" if I wrote more. Unlike the Russia-Ukraine War, where Ukraine is locked into an existential fight for its survival and is defending the rest of Europe, Israel, and the various Palestinian factions are in an existential fight for their mutual survival. The Russia-Ukraine War could end tomorrow - Russia goes home. Yes, there are continued issues of war crimes, reparations, etc. But Russia can go "home," and Ukrainians have a "home." If the Israel-Hamas War ended tomorrow, the "status quo" wouldn't change the underlying social, political, economic, and cultural issues. A lot of words to say, "It's a big mess."

VENEZUELA-GUYANA

Venezuela is holding a referendum on Sunday on annexing the Guyana region of Essequibo. Essequibo represents 62% of the territory of Guyana and is resource-rich. The control of the territory has been disputed for over 125 years. Venezuela has repeatedly gone through mediation, negotiation, and the international courts, which have repeatedly found that Essequibo is part of Guyana. Given the previously documented corruption of Venezuelan election results, the referendum will surely pass by a wide margin.

On Friday night, the International Court of Justice released a statement on the matter, as the integrity of the territory is currently being considered by the court (again).

"In the absence of a final resolution in the matter, the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela shall refrain from taking any action that might alter the current status in the territory in issue, which the Cooperative Republic of Guyana administers and controls."

"Both parties must refrain from taking any action that could worsen or prolong the issue in front of the court or make it more difficult to resolve."

The Maduro government rejected the court's order.

Fifty-one nations, including the member states of the Organization of American States, Canada, Germany, France, the United States, and other nations, do not recognize Nicolas Maduro as the legitimate leader of Venezuela. Maduro's government is supported by the Russian Federation and, to a lesser extent, China. Importantly, Brazil was one of the first nations to call the 2017 re-election of Maduro illegitimate and reportedly has started massing troops on the Venezuelan border.

Brazil and Guyana's political relations are strong, and Brazil has provided national security assistance in the past. In 2021, the United States and Guyana signed a defense and cooperation agreement after Maduro made an unilaterial claim to the Essequibo Territory. Yes, there is the potential for the United States and Brazil to intervene in a South American conflict, which would make for some strange bedfellows.

But wait, there's more.

The sudden posturing of potential war involving the integrity of another internationally recognized sovereign nation comes on the same week that a six-month agreement with the United States expired on November 30. The United States reduced some sanctions to enable a handful of specific companies in the oil and gas industry to re-enter Venezuela and start repairing its crumbling oil industry infrastructure. In exchange, Maduro agreed to permit opposition parties to run in free and fair elections that would have international monitors. That deadline passed.

Guyana's military is smaller than Moldova's, with about 4,500 members - two active-duty infantry battalions and one "artillery" battalion. The nation has no air force, no main battle tanks, only Strela-2 MANPADS for air defense, no modern artillery systems, and no infantry fighting vehicles. The heaviest weapons that Guyana has in inventory are Soviet-era M-46 130 mm towed artillery pieces, which are based on a century-old Soviet naval gun. Its military is more geared toward interdiction and suppression of organized crime and coastal defense.

Quick assessment: Since 2020, Venezuela has signaled its intentions about the Essequibo region of Guyana. It is not lost on me that another region with heavy Russian influence is having metaphorical lit matches thrown at it. The United States has an agreement to provide ammunition and logistical support to Guyana, and currently can't meet its global commitments as it is. It is unclear how much appetite the da Silva administration of Brazil has to assist its South American neighbor.

The increasing number of governments using or threatening to use military means to dispute internationally recognized borders that have stayed in place for decades is directly fueled by Russia's 2014 invasion of Ukraine and the sluggish response.

As one person said to me today, "The United States is running out of carrier battle groups."