The Good News About the Omicron Variant of COVID-19...

A new COVID-19 mutation, the Omicron variant was discovered just a few days ago and is already being categorized at the highest level of concern by the World Health Organization, prompting a wave of border closures and lockdowns after spreading to at least a dozen countries. Although we’re still in the early stages, this virus is already comparable to the devastating Delta variant.

 This mutation is both highly contagious and also believed to be vaccine-resistant. It’s even likely to re-infect those who have already had COVID, and while it isn’t in the United States yet, Chief Medical Advisor, Dr Anthony Fauci says it’s inevitable that it’ll reach the US.

But wait! How is any of that possibly good news? Well, this highly transmissible and potentially vaccine-resistant variant might have a chance to actually change the course of the pandemic, So let’s dive into what we know about it: First of all, the Omicron variant was discovered in South Africa, but let’s pause before running with the narrative of a new “African virus”.

The reason it was discovered in South Africa is because that’s where many of the world’s leading epidemiologists are, studying HIV and tuberculosis - in fact, South Africa was so successful at controlling the COVID-19 virus early on that this breakthrough case and lighting fast spread serves as a reliable indicator of just how transmissible the new mutation really is.

Two flights from South Africa to the Netherlands were discovered to contain 61 people infected with COVID-19, a shockingly high number, and the subsequent spread of the new mutation is still difficult to track, but as of now cases have been found in the Netherlands, the UK, Germany, Italy, Denmark, Belgium, Botswana, Australia, Austria, the Czech Republic, Hong Kong, and Israel, which has just gone into a full border lockdown in response.

Obviously, containment is both a top priority and somewhat of a lost cause, scientists say that you should act like it’s already here. This mutation will continue spreading - and worryingly, treatments that have worked before, like monoclonal antibodies and even the existing vaccines might be ineffective. Just two days into the spread, Moderna is already working on an Omicron-specific vaccine that should be available by early 2022.

Now again, that all sounds like bad news, but we said in the beginning of this episode that the Omicron variant might actually be good news… so, how is that possible?

Well, doctors in South Africa who have been seeing cases in young adults, are reporting that symptoms have been unusual and mild - and before going any further, let’s be very clear about what that means. As we already know, young adults are among the MOST resilient to COVID-19, and they are also the highest transmission group for that very reason.

If you see headlines that this new mutation is nothing to worry about, you should be very aware that it’s mild in the best case scenario among the least threatened group, However, throughout the pandemic, we have yet to see an aggressively transmissible, vaccine-resistant variant with only mild symptoms - and that’s extremely important so far the only one that comes close to fitting the bill is the much deadlier Delta variant, which quickly became responsibly for virtually all new cases, and created a new massive wave of deaths.

But ironically, if a new variant like Omicron is more transmissible than Delta, but less deadly - it could actually signal an end to the pandemic. By becoming the dominant strain, other, deadlier mutations would fade out, and in fact, keeping people alive while infecting them is essentially the survival of the fittest but for viruses. It’s exactly what happened to the flu virus that caused the 1918 pandemic. It became endemic, a seasonal virus that was eventually extinguished by another variant during another pandemic 40 years later.

 If it actually turns out that the Omicron virus is less deadly but more transmissible, which might be the case, we could end up with essentially a common cold version of COVID-19 that allows the deadlier mutations to die out while we’re all spreading this version. That would be great!

Now, that said, let’s be very clear, this is a best-case scenario based on very early, optimistic findings about the new variant - the fact remains that we are still firmly in the middle of a deadly pandemic, and social distancing and masks are still a very good and effective way of saving lives.

Vaccines and boosters work to prevent spread and to lessen the effects of the virus, and social distancing and masks are still a very good and effective way of saving lives. There is a reason that the Omicron mutation is categorized as a “variant of concern”, and it should be treated that way until a LOT more research can answer our questions.

But if we’re very lucky, and the science bears out this “common cold COVID” hypothesis, which it might not - then we may finally be on our way out of this nightmare, and relegate the deadliest mass-spreading virus that we’ve ever seen to a few days under the covers once or twice a year.

We’ll cross our fingers, and hope for the best. In the meantime, get your vaccine and boosters.

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