RTX 5000 Fallout, RDNA 4 Hopium, and the state of the GPU Market (Die Shrink Telegrams)
Added 2025-02-05 21:53:53 +0000 UTCMaybe it's just because we finished overhauling the GPU hierarchy chart again (see below), or maybe it's because Tom noticed you were all endless discussing GPU generations and value today (2/5/205) - but how about we just talk about our feelings on the state of the GPU market today?
So far the RTX 5000 launch is a disaster, Battlemage has faceplanted, the RDNA 4 rollout has been very sloppy (although hope remains!), and last gen GPU prices are exploding on eBay. How do you all feel about the state of GPUs? Any questions about the newest rankings in the MLID GPU Chart?
Sorry - you have 1-2 hours to submit, this is very last minute due to scheduling constraints.
https://www.mooreslawisdead.com/rank-charts
https://videocardz.com/newz/asus-unveils-rog-astral-geforce-rtx-5090-dhahab-gold-edition
https://videocardz.com/newz/amd-ceo-confirms-radeon-9070-will-go-on-sale-early-march
Comments
Seriously, 2700 USD for most 5090s is absurd, hopefully the CUDA into performance doesn't become a let down
Allen Chen
2025-02-06 04:43:04 +0000 UTCIt is looking like the 9070(non XT) is too strong to be selling below $500 for most AIB models. Is there room for a third N48 (say 40CU or 48CU) with sub 200W power and slow VRAM that can slot above the N44 (32CU) cards?
nonews
2025-02-06 04:12:32 +0000 UTCDue to the AI bubble and potential tarrifs, my plan was to get a 5090 even though it's somewhat absurd. I reckoned I could sell it for most of my cost when the next generation comes around, rinse and repeat. But this paper launch BS has made me rethink, despite even having help from a friend who is a CTO at a VAR, I couldn't get any 5090. I'm seriously considering getting the best performing card I can from AMD, after seeing what the 9000 series brings, and telling Nvidia to get bent. Value fell out the window years ago, the tiers have yet AGAIN been sneakily shifted, and we can't even get a card if we're willing to bow and lick Jensen's leather jacket.
The Dread Pirate Fred Fredburger
2025-02-06 02:26:48 +0000 UTCAny thoughts on AMD earnings?
Kiln God
2025-02-06 00:29:09 +0000 UTCits a mess and seems like its mostly self inflicted too. Compare the nonsense Intel and Nvidia are pulling with Apple, rolling out a new iPhone every year like clockwork. They mostly just work, there are plenty to go around and the logistics that have to be at work in the background are incredible. Meanwhile, Nvidia and AMD played a game of chicken for 6 months, pushimg their gpus back further and further. Intel is troubled and needs counseling.
Lucas
2025-02-06 00:05:48 +0000 UTCI'm disappointed in the state of the low end. The performance of the 60 class hasn't changed much since the 2060 super, and sub-$200 GPU's are an absolute mess of weird bottlenecks and unreliable performance (save for the 6600, but that card is an exception). In general, raster price/performance has seemed to stagnate since Nvidia's 3000 series, especially now with the release of Nvidia's 5000 series. AMD and Nvidia fumbled and gouged, creating a perfect storm of years long stagnation. I'm just hoping AMD's 9000 series doesn't continue the same trend by pricing the 9070XT above $650, but even if it was $600, I still wouldn't have a good reason to replace my 3080.
Ronigan
2025-02-05 23:55:50 +0000 UTCHow much of the disappointment derived from the distraction of ai?
coltmarshmallow
2025-02-05 23:47:58 +0000 UTCHi, I'm just disappointed with continued lack of VRAM on Nvidia cards. Still thousand-ish dollars for 16GB or more. Even used market.
Kator
2025-02-05 23:19:30 +0000 UTCWhy would anyone have hopium for the Rx 9070 series? Only FPS matters, no other metric. And the 5070 > 4090 > 9070 XT in FPS.
Jen-Hsun Huang
2025-02-05 23:17:07 +0000 UTCThe price of the 9070 XT does not matter—(pause)—as long as the regular 9070 is priced very aggressively. This would be the same playbook with Maxwell gen2. 970 $330, 980 $550 (67% higher price for 16% more performance (and as we later learned, .5GB more usable RAM).
Jen-Hsun Huang
2025-02-05 23:02:10 +0000 UTCHi Tom and Dan, I'm starting to feel like 16GB of VRAM should be only mid-range by now or at least below 600$. I bought a used 3090 for 650€ in 2023 and have no need to upgrade, but I'm dissappointed to see that this gen (Blackwell and RDNA4) will likely offer no more than 16GB below 1000$ for now. I still hope for a golden sample of the 9070 XT with more VRAM though.
KingKoro
2025-02-05 22:52:03 +0000 UTCSeems like all the high end cards sold out with no replacements coming soon.
magneticmanul
2025-02-05 22:47:08 +0000 UTCHWUB Podcast did a talk on Radeon for their last episode and went as far as to say that if Radeon stuffs up the 9070 launch, they are *done* as far as consumers care. I tend to agree. Recommend a listen to that, I hope the right people at AMD listened.
magneticmanul
2025-02-05 22:46:28 +0000 UTCHi Tom, I checked Amazon and Newegg stock yesterday and inventory on everything above a 4060 Ti or 7600XT seems very tight. Meanwhile 5080/5090 have almost zero supply, all USPS packages from China are currently banned, and a 10% tariff is in place. I can't tell if gamers stopped waiting and bought last gen cards or if the supply for everything midrange and up dried up completely. Thoughts?
magneticmanul
2025-02-05 22:42:08 +0000 UTCCurrently it's a shit show. You can't buy any of the new GPUs unless you can pay scalper pricing. You can't find any of the previous gen cards anywhere near MSRP due to stock shortages and demand. B580 hard to find at MSRP since Intel is likely losing money on every sale. Nvidia is selling AI frames and not performance, Intel selling you a GPU they can't mass produce due to various reasons. The only hope for this generation is the 9070 series, at least at launch, the leaked performance is the only promising thing that feels real. As long as the price is realistic of course.
JonWickBoomStik
2025-02-05 22:37:48 +0000 UTCHey Tom (and Dan?), should I be more happy my used 3090 is lasting longer or less happy that raytracing isn't a million times faster on the 5090 to make me feel like the scam Nvidia is running is worth my money. Also this is a minor thing, the downloads for broken silicon name has reverted to 1.mp4 pls help!
Swiggles
2025-02-05 22:33:33 +0000 UTCJust thinking about it some more, that maybe having stock in store already might be an advantage no one's talking about... A banger product without actual stock to sell is meaningless.
Dark Side of the Force
2025-02-05 22:28:13 +0000 UTCHey Mooreslawisdead, it seems somehow with all the time Nvidia had, that the software and drivers of the 50 series, especially the 5090 are not stable. As seen with Jayztwocents and other people reporting bricking with the 5090. This is a bizarre thing for Nvidia not to have made sure of before release, considering Blackwell was ready by Q3 of 2024. What do you think could have happened?
Sherif Lotfy
2025-02-05 22:25:44 +0000 UTCI feel like with Blackwell, Nvidia just telegraphed it's a "skip it" generation. They released a 5080 that should have been a 5070. I feel like they're gearing up to release a 6000 series on 2nm which might actually be good and whether or not the AI bubble pops will determine how aggressive they'll be with pricing. I do agree with something that came up in your conversation with vex: 80 & 90 class cards have had enough raster performance for a while. If you don't care about ray tracing, there's no need to upgrade. My 7900xt should last A LONG time.
B. Fish
2025-02-05 22:23:56 +0000 UTCThis is more of a talking prompt or a medium-hot take than an actual question, but right now the whole new GPU market is hopium. nVidia 50 series are either selling at 2x MSRP or are unavailable at all. Intel is being intel again, and AMD has yet to shoot their load. Unless AMD hits a home run at/under $600 for the xt, I'm planning on sitting it out at least until the AI bubble pops and used datacenter GPUs flood the market. What do you think makes sense as a GPU consumer?
Lo_Res_Gamer
2025-02-05 22:21:20 +0000 UTCDo you still have the older versions of the chart? It'd be interesting to track the pace of cards sliding down in performance tiers from the first chart to the current version, and a nice throw back to those GPU history videos that started the channel.
Cleansweep
2025-02-05 22:15:07 +0000 UTCLimiting to just DIY launches from last 12 months: Zen 5: not enough performance gain particularly in gaming. Arrow Lake: erratic design and performance and supply sucked anyway. 9800X3D: tidal-wave of demand limited availability and pushed up prices. Battlemage: fake MSRP covering up for terrible design with terrible availability. Blackwell: fake MSRP covering up for poor design with terrible availability. RDNA 4: can we just have a decently executed launch for once please?
Chris Rijk
2025-02-05 22:14:50 +0000 UTCTo me the gpu market isn’t that bad, just checked Amazon and the 7800xt can be found for $480 brand new, there was two years to buy a 4090, 4080/super. Ignoring the heavily discounted xtx and xt as well. Understandably if you have Ampere or Turing this was probably what people were waiting on to upgrade but it’s literally a two month wait, GTA 6 isn’t coming out in the next two months let alone any meaningful big game that will be hard to run. I think you can wait another two months for stock/RDNA 4. Or maybe I’m too cynical.
Sad XTX 999
2025-02-05 22:14:35 +0000 UTCWhat the heck caused GPU prices to skyrocket so much this week? I have a 4080 Super and was shocked to see them going for $1500+ on eBay. I might even sell mine and just game on my PS5 for now so I can pocket the money.
Question Generated By JensenGPT
2025-02-05 22:12:32 +0000 UTCHi Tom! Well, 50 series sucks ball. I really just hope RDNA4 does not flop on its face upon release, either buggy driver or bad pricing. I could see for the first time in a long while, general sentiment is turning against Nvidia, so I do hope AMD could take this chance. Beyond the GPU market, AMD overall should learn to levearage their position in consumer CPU market to force higher rate of adoption. It's 2025 and I am still seeing AMD Laptop being the "budget" alternative (Asus Strix AMD does not have option for 5070ti or higher and using old chassis), or perhaps create better incentive & synergy to force AMD combo of CPU+ GPU into laptop/desktop market.
Dark Side of the Force
2025-02-05 22:09:13 +0000 UTCHello, Tom and Dan. As you predicted and as we have seen, the supply of Blackwell GPUs at launch was abysmal, and the situation probably isn't going to improve for at least another month or two. Given the state of the current GPU landscape, do you think we are in for another prolonged period of GPU shortages? Will AMD and Nvidia bounce back with enough supply to satisfy demand, or could this potentially become another scalper's market a la 2021?
kjm015
2025-02-05 22:08:15 +0000 UTCI feel like gpu makers have completely lost the plot. Everything has become vastly more expensive while not really offering a better value. I'm kinda glad AMD is rolling out rdna4 this way by letting Nvidia go for broke so the AI bubble pops just that much faster.
Thalo215
2025-02-05 22:05:04 +0000 UTCHonestly, looking at the GPU hierarchy, you can tell how dumb the market is right now. Two entire tiers are solo Nvidia cards! It does feel like of bad that so much of the High End is 16GB. If you're spending that much money, a little extra RAM would be nice, especially since I can see a lot of people "future proofing" by buying high end to ride out potential GPU market disruptions in the future. The past decade hasn't been kind to anyone trying to update GPUs on a 3-5 year cadence.
Cleansweep
2025-02-05 22:04:15 +0000 UTCIs there any word on if the 9070 and 9070 XT will share enough silicon that we might be able to unlock 9070's like we could with some 5700s? I would love to get near 4080 performance for $500 or less, and I am willing to void warranties to do so.
infinitevalence
2025-02-05 22:02:46 +0000 UTC
