Bond Auction Disaster: And The Chicken Came Home To Roost!
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Market Recap:
0:00 Intro
0:33 Commentary: Bond Auction Disaster
8:30 Recession, Inflation & Fraud
11:00 Morning Brief: Bear Market Checklist
15:40 Market Performance: All Bearish
17:33 Heat Map: Gold Miners Stand Alone
18:45 Commodities: Oil Is Not A reliable Geopolitical Hedge
21:00 Options: NVDA, AFRM, CARR, SPY, GOOG
27:10 Charts: Short Goldman?
34:50 Outlook
Outro Music: Delerium/Sarah Mclachlan - Silence
Comments
"A quick look at dollar positioning sets the alarm bells ringing. The latest data on USD futures positioning shows a staggering $16,965 billion net short. One of the most bearish dollar bets in history.” Phil Gilham, 15th May 2025 I suspect the dollar shorts are no hurry to cover, especially now that we got the big "beautiful" (hideous) passed to the Senate.
AURUM
2025-05-23 02:44:46 +0000 UTCCBO estimates always seem to skew one way. Overestimating deficits when Republicans try to pass a bill and underestimating deficits when Democrats put forth a bill. Dollar debasment and hyper growth seem to be the only way we have a chance to handle the national debt. I'm watching M2 money supply print on May 27th. If the print is higher, the economy and gdp are growing, ie equities will keep going higher.
Josef Becker
2025-05-22 13:07:21 +0000 UTCand get paid in a currency that has lost more than 60% of its value against gold since 2015?
AURUM
2025-05-22 12:14:07 +0000 UTCMav!!
Stavros Deriziotis
2025-05-22 11:50:58 +0000 UTCMav, u like the CHF; I own NOK and trade it on the Oslo Børs; my biggest position is EQNR ASA. I'm hodling the JPY as well. I'd still own CNOOC, but fucking Trump delisted the stock back in 2020; whatta dick move. Executive Order 13959 is a U.S. Presidential Executive Order signed on November 12, 2020, its title, and stated goal, is "Addressing the Threat From Securities Investments That Finance Communist Chinese Military Companies." CNOOC's dividend yield of over 8%.... poof, gone.
AURUM
2025-05-22 11:28:42 +0000 UTCQuestion? If rates go much higher? Say 5.5 to 6 % on the ten or 20 year bond Won’t that devastate the housing and stock market ? Wont that throw us into a recession ? Therefore , leading to much lower rates? I for one are buying municipal bonds at close to 5% Triple tax free
Richard
2025-05-22 11:15:59 +0000 UTC$hitcoin is putting in a top if not this week, for sure next week. I'm nibbling on some shorts on $hitcoin via switching from BITX to BITI in increments. Yesterday, I opened up GLD $300 & $320 calls for Jan 16, 26. The old man is on the move; all dips will be shallow and quickly snapped up. The inflation chickens are coming home to roost. It'll be fun to watch Trump squirm when the "90-day pause" comes up for renewal.
AURUM
2025-05-22 10:54:22 +0000 UTCMav, suggest you check the settings on the SMA calculation. I'm also using Trading View, and the "SMA 200 close" for the ES1! e-mini shows 5,803.56 on my chart; This would mean the close is slightly above the 200d SMA.
Daniel Wade
2025-05-22 10:17:20 +0000 UTCThank You
Christian R
2025-05-22 09:40:03 +0000 UTCThanks Mav
Longrun
2025-05-22 09:32:35 +0000 UTCDefinitely had to pause and take notes. Mav seemed to cut 20 mins off the video talking so fast lol
Jamar
2025-05-22 08:19:21 +0000 UTCThank you sir
Rico
2025-05-22 07:59:45 +0000 UTC
