Sorare Tactics

GW 481 J1 League Preview - Final

Added 2024-05-31 04:52:32 +0000 UTC

Intro

We have 9 J1 league games coming up this weekend!

Note that Sagan Tosu and FC Tokyo play tonight so arent part of GW481.

This is also the last games before an international break where Japan will be playing twice. There are still 20 rounds of the J1 league to go so I find that these breaks can give good buying opportunities on targeted guys.

League Table

Machida continued their great season with a last minute win away to Urawa. Antlers kept up the pressure with a 3-0 away win. Kobe have dropped off the pace with back to back losses, this time a surprise home loss to Verdy.

Gamba are in excellent form and have conceded just 2 goals in their last 6 games. Ichimori has been fantastic and scores very well on SO5 with his sweeper keeper style.

Kyoto picked up their first point in 7 games but remain bottom. They havent won since early March. Sapporo woes continued with another heavy loss.

Fixtures

The below are the fixtures coming up this GW:

For Saturday fixtures we are more likely to get team news on Friday especially from teams like YFM and Antlers.

Main Points

Araki (Hiroshima), Grolli (Fukuoka), Zahedi (Fukuoka), Sasaki (Frontale) are all suspended.
For Hiroshima, I expect Shiotani to return to the back with Nakano and Sasaki. (Shiotani seen in training and no injury)
Mitsuta hasnt started for a few games and atm bench again seems most likely. Could see some tweaks in the setup, should get more intel tomorrow
YFM beat Kashiwa compressively 4-0 with Lopes scoring a hat-trick. Popp went off with a minor injury. Waiting on news about him. There is a quick turnover (2 days) so im assuming hes out. Iikura fav to take over but could change.
They play Kashima this week who have the best home record in the league and in great form.
Shonan have been hit by a couple of injuries. Confirmed that Min Tae and Hata are out. Big losses, should give Sugioka more gametime but other options available. Sugioka was guilty of an cruical error that let Iwata equalise.
Kawasaki remain very unstable. JSR returned and did well. Players like Kurumaya in full training and played practice game, close to returning.
Antlers are the form team having won 6 of their last 7. They have scored in 9 games in a row.
Machida are 6 games since a loss, winning 5 of them. Conceded just 2 goals in that time.
Kyoto have lost all 7 home games this season.

Predicted Lineups

Important to note the %s used here. If no %, it means I see them as a starter and no known risks. For sorare, its about there scorer potential so check out KEY PLAYERS even subs have a way :)

When 75% or below - there is some risk involved. My main aim with these is to show where risk/potential DNPs are lurking.

I base these %s on info I read from various sources including comments from the manager and reading a lot of local Japanese news coverage/message boards. Saying that, there will always be unknowns including last minute injury/illness of a player etc.

Always do your own research when making picks. For SO5, it can make sense to take some calculated risks depending on the potential score and the rest of your team/prize pool.

Hiroshima vs Iwata

Drew 1-1 with Cerezo last GW.
Araki is suspended. A few options available. Could see Shiotani back in defense with Nakano and Sasaki.
Mitsuta has been benched last couple of games. He himself hes not in form and manager told him "to put more effort in". yikes. Another bench performance likely.
Sotiriou vs Kato hard to call. Sotriou had a slight injury last game hence why unused sub.
Marcos Junior remains missing in action. Sad times.

Iwata

Came from 2 goals down to beat Shonan 3-2
Germain (top scorer in league) out til August. Iwata trying different options with Yamada favoured.
Likely the same lineup start this game with no known reasons to change things.

Machida vs Niigata

Machida

Top of the table and in excellent form. 4 wins in a row
Shibato return after not being able to play the last game due to contractual reasons.
Lots of options upfront. Na Sang Ho came on and did great as a sub last week
Dresevic is fit, at the moment out of the team but could easily return. For me, no need to change at the mo.

Niigata

Just 1 win in last 7 games and 16th in the table
Takagi, Miyomoto and Hoshi confirmed out injured.
Fitgerald is in training but unclear if his fitness levels. Deng and Chiba most likely CB pairing atm
Horigome is an option at LB. Has been vocal this week though again im not sure if fit to start.
Lots of options up front/mid depending on fitness. In general lots of injury problems inside squad

Shonan vs Gamba

Shonan

Gave up a 2 goal lead to lose 3-2 to Niigata
Confirmed after the game that Min Tae and Hata are out injured
Sugioka should come in. Had v poor game last match/manager may change formation with other options.

Gamba

Unbeaten in 5 games with 4 wins and a draw.
Beat FC Tokyo last week and up to 4th.
Yamada came on to score the winner. Pushing for a start but bench most likely imo.
Alano out with an injury.

Kashima vs YFM

Kashima

Beat Sapporo 3-0 with Nago getting 2 goals
No known injuries and team has been stable in recent week.
In great form so same same lineup as last game most likely.
Shibasaki got some mins from the bench and offers another option. Again dont see need to change things with Chinen and Sano doing v well in centre mid.

YFM

Bounced back from their ACL disappointment with a 4-0 home win against Kashiwa.
Elber was missing. Has been seen in training and in contention to start.
At time of writing, no info is available on Popp. Iikura fav to start.
Quick turnover in games which Kewell has been critical of. Some general rotation risk but with them needing to catch up in the league and against a strong opponent, starting wtih a strong lineup is most likely.
I will post on Discord if any late news breaks, usually 3-4 hrs before deadline if it comes

Urawa vs Kobe

Urawa

Lost to last min penalty to Machida
.Gustafsson came on as a sub. Taking longer than expected to be starting, better chance this week
Nakajima was training on a different schedule midweek. Unclear if will be fit enough to start
Okubo and Sekine have returned to training. This game too soon
Team used the below in training game, most likely team imo. Sakai did well in training and pushing for a start.

Kobe

Lost back to back games and struggling in attacking. Osako only has 4 goals from 15 games which is v poor compared to last season.
Outside Saito, full squad available to pick from.
When team has lost/played bad, the manager has shaken things up. Rotation risk generally high here is my hunch but hard to predict.
Lots of competition in LW eg Yuruki vs Sasaki/Patric. Ide has also been doing well including a goal in the league cup

Kyoto vs Cerezo

Kyoto

Bottom of the table. Confidence low in the team.
Api returns from suspension and is available. Miyamoto did well last game
Squad close to full availability. Manager has been changing things up including formation.
Have lost all 7 home games this season. Without a cleansheet in their last 10 games
This is a local derby

Cerezo

Drew 1-1 with Hiroshima. Are 7th in the table
Noborizato is out injured. Maikuma returned last game as RB
Hubner is available but unlikely to start.
Kagawa and Capixaba are both available. Likely on the bench.

Tokyo Verdy vs Sapporo

Tokyo Verdy

Surprise but deserved 1-0 win against Kobe
Hayashi returns from suspension.
Manager has said that they are being careful with Taniguchi and want him to be 100% fit before he returns to the lineup.
Yamada wasnt in the squad last game. No injury, manager has said hes mentally and physically not up to speed yet.

Sapporo

2nd bottom of table and 4 defeats from last 5 games.
Asano and Aoki out injured. Kondo also not fully fit though is in training.
Players like Kobyashii can come in if managers opts for false 9
Suzuki has also returned to full training and is an option to start as striker. Is having a poor season so far an yet to score from 9 starts.

Kawasaki vs Nagoya

Kawasaki

Drew 1-1 with Kashiwa
JSR was man of the match after returning to nets.
Sasaki is suspended for this game.
Kurumaya has returning to play in practice games and is close to match fitness. Could feature in the squad
Some concerns with Jesiel who left training early the other day. Sai also not seen in training and assumed out.
Maruyama close to match fitness could come in if Jesiel not match fit.

Nagoya

Surprisingly drew against bottom side Kyoto. Junker came off from the bench to get an assist
There is ongoing concerns with his general fitness. He has chronic back issues that can flare up/restrict his mins. If fit, will start. Yamagishi is still working up to full fitness so another appearance from the bench is likely.
Kawazura out injured. Yoshida has been doing well in his absence. Ono also out with a knee injury.
Lots of options including Masui, Nagai also competing for shadow striker role.
Waiting on press conference/training news. Sometimes comes before deadline - will post on Discord if anything major comes up

Kashiwa vs Fukuoka

Kashiwa

Flat performance in 4-0 loss to YFM on Wednesday
Limited team news available. Matsumoto likely still out by the way club were talking. Morita to continue
A few options in mid with Shimamura/Shirai and Toshima fighting for spots
Takamine remains injured and out
Team has been relatively stable but after 3 games inside a week could see some changes.

Fukuoka

Beat Niigata 2-1 in the last game
Zahedi and Grolli are out suspended.
Nara and Miya seen in training. Lack of CBs in general due to injuries.
Tsuruno started last game up front and did well. Most likely to continue though Wellington offers a different type of option
Keeper Nagaishii is out for 3 months meaning Murakami is relatively safe in nets....for now

SO5 Analysis

Best xG - Hiroshima (2.2 xG, Machida xG 1.5)

Best CS - Hiroshima (52% CS, Machida 47% CS, Kashiwa 46 CS%

Best Stack - Hiroshima, Machida

Hiroshima have the best fixture according to the bookies. Though I agree its a nice game to target, Hiroshimas form is a slight concern. They have just 1 win in their last 8 games. With players like Mitsuta being benched recently, theres also fewer must have players. I really like Ohashi for this game and will be stacking Sasaki with Osako even though they have yielded less than expected (for now!)

Machida have been playing great all season. Players like Hirakawa, Suzuki, Tani, Oh Se Hun in particular look good here.

Gamba are having a great season relative to recent years. There defense and midfield in particular being very stable. A few players such as Yamada have also returned from injury. I like this fixture again Shonan who have been hit by a few injuries to key players. Players like Ichimori, Nakatani have improving stack potential. Usami along with Sakamoto are offering decent threats. Sadly Welton doesnt have any cards as he has been doing great too.

I also really like Cerezos fixture against Kyoto. Kyoto have lost all 7 home games this season including a recent 5-0 loss. Ceara and Fernandes could have lots of fun here!

In contender, lots of leagues have finished in Europe including Scotland, Germany and Italy. This means J league players and stacks are much more competitive especially with in-season