SWR: Chapter 1159/1161

Chapter 1159: Guardiola's Big Problem

For a head coach to succeed in European football, the right time, place, and people are all essential.

A strong figure like Gao Shen can calmly choose the right moment and environment, then rely on his own ability to integrate the dressing room and even the entire club, thereby achieving harmony among people.

But there are exceptions to everything.

Guardiola is an exception in choosing to coach Bayern Munich.

Of course, this cannot be pinned entirely on who is right or wrong, as there are many unpredictable factors.

In the 12/13 season, Heynckes's Bayern Munich finished second in the Champions League group stage and were strong in the league, but they struggled in the Champions League group phase, including a 1-3 away loss to BATE Borisov.

Heynckes was very old and his contract ran to 2013. He publicly stated he no longer had the energy and planned to step down after fulfilling his contract, informing Bayern's hierarchy in advance.

That was the premise.

In this situation, Bayern had to prepare early, especially with a coach like Guardiola unemployed at the time. After Rummenigge and Hoeness confirmed Heynckes's decision, they immediately began the search.

Out of respect, everything was done in secret, including contacting Guardiola in New York through Ferguson, which no one knew from start to finish.

After several talks, Guardiola wanted to try his ideas at Bayern and accepted the invitation.

But once the contract was signed, the ever-present media got wind of it and broke the story, creating an awkward situation. Heynckes was still in charge, but Guardiola was set to take over.

It was similar to now, with Van Gaal preparing to coach Manchester United and Hiddink preparing to coach the Dutch national team.

What made it worse was that no one expected that in the second half of the season, after Heynckes fine-tuned the team, they were unstoppable. They won the Bundesliga and the DFB-Pokal, reached the Champions League final again, and almost won the treble.

In that situation, Heynckes revealed his intention to stay for another year, but Bayern had already signed Guardiola, so they had to refuse.

By then, everyone understood it was a chain of missteps.

Bayern's management, the players, Heynckes, and Guardiola had no misunderstandings among themselves. It was the media and fans who spun conspiracy theories.

But in that context, Guardiola's position was embarrassing and passive.

He took over a team that had almost won the treble two seasons running.

From the moment he arrived, there was only one path to success. He had to win the treble, or produce something even greater.

Everyone knows that is impossible to guarantee.

Worse still, after taking over Bayern, Guardiola faced more problems.

The first issue was player adaptation.

Both Guardiola and Bayern's management had a realistic aim for Bayern under Guardiola, which was dominance.

They hoped Guardiola would build Bayern into a dominant machine.

Bayern have long had a reputation for being tough rather than refined. Their collective strength is high, but they lack variety, especially control over tempo. This has been a long-standing issue for Bayern and even German football.

Hitzfeld's Bayern were famous for their defense. Later, when Klinsmann was appointed, Bayern tried to change style. Especially after seeing the wave of reform Klinsmann led with the national team, Bayern became more determined.

After Klinsmann failed, Bayern chose Van Gaal, still taking a reformist path.

It is clear that from Klinsmann to Van Gaal, despite successes and failures, Bayern's direction was set, reaching a peak under Heynckes.

In fact, Heynckes succeeded by improving and modifying on Van Gaal's base.

Guardiola continued Van Gaal's system, hoping to go further.

Did Bayern succeed in this regard?

The answer is clear.

In Gao Shen's previous life, Guardiola won the Bundesliga three seasons in a row and reached three straight Champions League semi-finals. That report card was fine.

The only regret was that he did not win the Champions League.

They were always one of the most competitive contenders.

So what was the problem?

We return to the original point.

Bayern's players struggled to adapt to Guardiola's style.

Not only at Bayern, but later at Manchester City as well.

The success of tiki-taka at Barcelona was never just a tactical success. It was also the triumph of exceptional players and a gifted coach.

What does that mean?

Fans like to attribute success to a superstar, a head coach, or a specific tactic. That is wrong.

Football is a team sport and a systems sport.

Any team's success comes from the joint effort of players, tactics, the head coach, and even the management behind them.

When Guardiola brought his ideas to Bayern and Manchester City, he ran into the most serious issue, the players.

He would never find another Messi, Xavi, Iniesta, or Busquets.

At Bayern, he was frustrated to find that while they could keep the ball, their attack lacked threat. Why?

Because there was no change of rhythm.

Why was there no change of pace?

At Barcelona, there were many ways to accelerate, like Xavi's pass, Iniesta's carry, or Messi's dribble.

Bayern did not have those.

Even in basic security under pressure, Bayern did not meet his requirements.

Many would ask why Guardiola did not use Schweinsteiger, an excellent holding midfielder. Under Heynckes, he was the best in Europe.

Would you rather use Lahm or Alaba in midfield?

This is a tactical consideration.

Heynckes used more of a double pivot. Schweinsteiger was one of the two, with a ball-winner next to him, such as Vidal or Khedira.

But Guardiola's 4-3-3 plays with a single pivot.

In a single pivot, especially in big matches, Schweinsteiger's weaknesses are fully exposed.

…

"Let me show you some data."

Carlos Vargas switched the PPT on the big screen, listing comparative numbers.

"Schweinsteiger has been dispossessed 1.6 times per match in the Bundesliga this season, with a peak of 2.3 in 10/11. He also averages 1.3 turnovers per match this season, with a pass completion of 90 percent."

"We can compare that with others."

"Xabi Alonso is dispossessed 0.3 times and makes 0.2 turnovers per match in La Liga. In the Champions League, both figures are 0.1, and his pass completion is 92 percent."

"Toni Kroos is dispossessed 0.4 times and makes 0.4 turnovers per match in La Liga. In the Champions League, he is dispossessed 0.5 times, makes 0.3 turnovers, and completes 94.2 percent of his passes. Note that Toni Kroos plays higher up."

"Barcelona's Busquets is dispossessed 0.5 times in La Liga and makes 0.4 turnovers. In the Champions League, he is dispossessed 0.4 times and makes slightly more turnovers at 0.7. His completion is 94.6 percent."

"Even within Bayern, when Lahm plays as a holding midfielder, he is dispossessed 0.5 times, makes 0.4 turnovers, and completes 94.3 percent."

By this point, the data clearly showed why Guardiola used Lahm in midfield. Schweinsteiger made too many errors, especially under pressing.

The whole world knows that against Barcelona you press Busquets, and against Real Madrid you press Xabi Alonso.

Even when opponents keyed on them, Busquets and Xabi Alonso still maintained that level. By comparison, are Schweinsteiger's errors acceptable?

At Real Madrid, Casemiro averages 0.5 dispossessions and 0.6 turnovers per match. Illarramendi averages 0.4 for both. Their role is as backups for the single pivot.

In a big match, if the single pivot is dispossessed or misplaces a pass, disaster follows.

This is why Guardiola misses Toni Kroos so much.

If Kroos had not gone to Real Madrid, he would have been Guardiola's best option in midfield.

But is Toni Kroos flawless?

No. Toni Kroos has the excellent traits of German players, precision, focus, and execution.

He also shares a common German weakness, a lack of creativity and tempo changes.

You can see it in the contrast between Kroos and Modric. The former is steady and imposing, the latter delicate, inventive, and able to change rhythm.

If all midfielders were like Kroos, rhythm would be a problem, the game would be stable with no surprises. If all were like Modric, stability would be a problem.

That is why the best combination for Real Madrid is Kroos and Modric.

But the problem is that this Bayern has neither Kroos nor Modric.

Even someone as capable as Guardiola cannot conjure those profiles.

And if Real Madrid face Bayern, the answer is clear.

"No need to overthink it. We have set up two targeted training sessions. At the Bernabéu, we will crush them in midfield and take them away. That is how we will beat Bayern Munich."

Gao Shen was very confident and determined.

"In addition, our front line needs to work on immediate counter-pressing. Same as before. If we do not win it, we delay. Bayern's front line cannot play fast right now, and we can exploit that."

After identifying Bayern's weak point, the targeted plan was clear. The next step was focused drills.

Gao Shen was also curious.

"I am very curious now, does he dare to play Lahm as the holding midfielder?" Gao Shen smiled mischievously.

(To be continued.)

Chapter 1160: Best in Europe

La Liga, round 34.

Atlético Madrid played at home and defeated Elche 2-0 with a goal from Miranda and a stoppage-time penalty from Diego Costa.

Barcelona faced Athletic Bilbao at Camp Nou but were unable to break through at first. In the 50th minute, the Basque Lions scored the opener. Then within three minutes, Pedro and Messi scored to complete the comeback.

In the end, Barcelona defeated Athletic Bilbao 2-1.

Real Madrid visited Valladolid.

Gao Shen used an all-rotated lineup with young players and eventually won 2-1 away to Valladolid.

Real Madrid scored twice first, but Valladolid's furious late surge almost turned the match around.

Casillas was excellent in this game.

After this round, there are only four matches left in La Liga, and the picture is basically set.

Real Madrid are far ahead and have effectively clinched the title. Atlético Madrid are four points clear of Barcelona and have essentially secured second place. Barcelona currently sit third.

Interestingly, Athletic Bilbao in fourth are more than 20 points behind Barcelona.

It can be said that starting from this season, the duopoly in La Liga has been broken, and Atlético Madrid have begun to compete with the two giants, though few realize it yet.

Simeone's legendary coaching journey at Atlético Madrid has only just begun.

…

With the league and Copa del Rey settled, Real Madrid and Atlético Madrid turned their focus to the Champions League.

At this time, the media suddenly hyped a previous comment from Gao Shen, that he believed Atlético Madrid had the quality to reach the Champions League top four. Back then, many felt he had overrated Simeone's team.

But now, Atlético Madrid have indeed reached the semi-finals.

When the story resurfaced, fans worldwide were shocked, but also full of admiration for Gao Shen's foresight.

You should know, Gao Shen did not say that later, but at the start of the season. At that time, he had already assessed Atlético's overall level.

The last time Atlético Madrid reached the Champions League semi-finals was 40 years ago.

When Simeone was asked about Gao Shen's comment in an interview, the Argentine smiled and said, "I am thinking of inviting him to dinner to thank him because his words inspired us."

He added that Atlético reached the semi-finals on their own strength, and he believed they had what it takes to beat Ancelotti's Paris Saint-Germain, reach the final, and even win the Champions League.

"I think our biggest rival will be Real Madrid."

"If Bayern can upset Real Madrid in the semi-finals, we will be very grateful to Guardiola."

The implication was clear. Simeone was more confident against Bayern Munich, but not certain against the powerful Real Madrid.

After round 34, Catalonia's TV reported that Barcelona had agreed to Messi's renewal request, with an agreement for his salary to rise to 20 million euros per year.

At the same time, Mundo Deportivo revealed that because Barcelona frequently tried to poach Paris Saint-Germain players such as Thiago Silva, PSG had lost patience and were ready to move for Messi.

A 250 million euro offer was reported, to trigger Messi's release clause.

"But this first requires Messi's approval."

On one hand there were reports of an agreed renewal, on the other hand talk of PSG's pursuit. The situation was confusing and unclear.

In Germany, however, things were clear.

With the transfer market heating up, demand for top goalkeepers was growing more urgent, especially after Atlético Madrid signed Benfica's talented goalkeeper Oblak for 20 million euros, which intensified the race.

Bayern Munich finally moved decisively and cut the Gordian knot, signing German goalkeeper Ter Stegen from Borussia Mönchengladbach for a hefty 30 million euros.

This caused another shock across European football.

Just as Bayern signed Ter Stegen at a high price, the British outlet The Sun reported that Paris Saint-Germain and Barcelona, who had been interested in Ter Stegen, had shifted targets and locked on to Leeds United's Costa Rican goalkeeper Keylor Navas.

At 27 and in his prime, Navas has been one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League this season. He currently leads the league with 16 clean sheets and is the frontrunner for the Golden Glove.

At present, whether it is Manchester City's Neuer, Arsenal's Szczesny, or Chelsea's Cech, all trail Navas in clean sheets.

More importantly, the Costa Rican is also the goalkeeper with the most saves in the Premier League, with a save success rate of 81 percent, far ahead of others.

The Sun believes that after Courtois moved to Real Madrid, Navas quickly became Leeds United's most trusted goalkeeper, and this season he has become the best in the Premier League.

More importantly, at 27, he is entering his peak.

The Sun argues that Navas's largest weakness is his height of only 1.85 meters, "but this does not prevent him from being one of the best goalkeepers in the Premier League and even in Europe."

The transfer-savvy outlet reported that Navas's current valuation is 15 million pounds, but PSG are considering an offer of up to 25 million euros and clearly intend to get him.

Their analysis suggests that if the best goalkeeper in the Premier League can be signed for 25 million euros, it would undoubtedly be a bargain.

As soon as The Sun broke the news, Navas's value quietly rose by 1 million pounds on the German transfer market. This became an interesting story, quickly picked up and covered by more media.

Keylor Navas, the Leeds United goalkeeper, has entered the mainstream of European football's attention.

Some even began to consider this late bloomer from a non-traditional football nation as another top-class shorter goalkeeper in Europe after Casillas.

…

After the Valladolid match, Real Madrid shifted preparations to the Champions League.

This did not only mean training-ground drills, but also the targeted strategic ideas against Bayern that Gao Shen instilled in the players.

For example, Gao Shen told the squad in a tactical meeting that against a Guardiola side, they should not try to compete for possession.

Why?

Because possession is Guardiola's lifeblood.

Given Real Madrid's technical level, they might not lose a possession battle against Bayern, but they would not gain much either, and it would not be a smart way to play.

Real Madrid are best at direct, vertical attacks.

Therefore, Gao Shen's setup for this game was that Real Madrid should cede possession and not fight Bayern for the ball.

"I do not even want you to press their back line too aggressively. That is a very uneconomical trade."

Gao Shen's approach was that on defensive transitions, Real Madrid must counterpress immediately, but the purpose is not to win the ball back. It is to slow Bayern's transition and prevent them from counterattacking quickly.

Today's Bayern are very different from the Bayern in Gao Shen's previous life in one key respect, Robben.

Without Robben, Bayern's counters lack speed.

Now their main counter route is down the left. The Alaba and Ribery flank is where they can run at pace. On the right, Thomas Müller runs tirelessly and relies more on the full-back's overlap.

"Before this game, I will send out some signals of weakness. I want to give them more confidence and lure them forward. That way, we can be more dangerous."

Defensively, Gao Shen wanted Di Maria to track back actively, but Ronaldo and Benzema should not drop deep.

In this way, Real Madrid would defend in three lines similar to a 4-4-2.

This is widely seen as the most flexible defensive structure.

"Once our block is set, Bayern will want to keep the ball, so let them. We must be patient. At our home, as long as we do not concede, we win."

Gao Shen's words might sound conservative, but he was setting a psychological baseline for the players.

If they do not concede, the worst outcome is 0-0.

In the away leg, Real Madrid can play their game.

With Real Madrid's attacking power, it will be Bayern Munich's biggest test.

Gao Shen believes Guardiola will realize this.

So what would a normal choice be in this situation?

"Believe me, Guardiola has never been conservative. He does not like surrendering initiative, so he will grab the ball and push to score first. We have to show weakness and draw them forward."

If Real Madrid can score first away from home, the opponent will not be able to defend in comfort. Bayern will then have chances to score a second and even a third, which could come naturally.

But if Bayern score away, when they return to Madrid, with Gao Shen's attacking approach and Real Madrid's firepower, can Bayern guarantee they will hold out?

Guardiola will certainly weigh the pros and cons and consider this fully.

"When we switch from defense to attack, the two midfielders, Toni and Luka, you must step in aggressively and disrupt their midfield. At the same time, our two wingers need to attack the space behind their full-backs."

"As long as Bayern push up, their full-backs will push up, and there will be space behind them. We have to play quickly, or let Benzema pull wide to contest the first ball."

Gao Shen's plan is not new. It is the same approach he used against Barcelona, adjusted to Bayern's player profiles, but essentially the same style.

Defensively, Gao Shen emphasized that when Ribery has the ball, Modric must retreat in time to protect the flank and block the inside cut.

Di Maria should track Alaba's surges, because his underlaps and overlaps from deep are very dangerous.

In attack, Gao Shen's strategy was very clear, hit the space behind.

Gao Shen was very confident, because this approach has worked against Barcelona and has been proven in many matches.

Guardiola's Bayern are now inferior to Barcelona in terms of possession play and in players' ability to break deadlocks.

They are not on Real Madrid's level either.

(To be continued.)

Chapter 1161: I Like to Win

What would you do when facing a head coach who starts aggressively and always manages to seize the advantage?

Different people would make different choices.

Some would be more conservative and seek stability. Some would stay balanced, as usual. Others would be relatively bold.

In the first leg of the Champions League semi-final at the Bernabéu, Guardiola chose to be aggressive.

He opted for a brave but risky approach, hoping to take the lead before Real Madrid hit their stride.

It was an interesting idea.

In terms of personnel, Guardiola also made bold choices.

Lahm and Schweinsteiger formed a double pivot, with Götze ahead, Ribery on the left, Thomas Müller on the right, and Mandzukic up front.

The back line was Alaba, Dante, Vidal, and Rafinha, with Tom Starke in goal.

At kick-off, Bayern circulated the ball across their back line, while Real Madrid pressed decisively, as if to use home advantage to launch a direct assault.

But Bayern did not back down.

Just 27 seconds in, Alaba received a pass from Lahm on the left, combined quickly with Ribery, burst past Carvajal at pace, carried the ball diagonally into the left side of the box, drew defenders, and slipped it wide to Ribery.

At the crucial moment, Di Maria recovered in time and, together with Pepe, double-teamed Ribery, conceding only a throw-in on Bayern's left.

Fortunately for Real Madrid, the throw-in did not lead to danger.

…

After Courtois claimed the ball, Gao Shen, like the fans at the Bernabéu, applauded loudly to encourage the players, then turned and wagged his index finger at Zidane and Hierro.

"One dinner each from you two."

Zidane and Hierro both smiled and shook their heads wryly.

Before the match, they had made a bet with Gao Shen, who predicted Guardiola would adopt a more radical approach.

It now seemed Gao Shen knew Guardiola best.

"I did not think he would dare to be this attacking at the Bernabéu. He is really going for it," Hierro said, surprised.

Everyone knows Guardiola represents attacking football, but to go this bold at the Bernabéu, with such a lineup and approach, was unexpected.

Lahm and Schweinsteiger as a double pivot, Götze as a 10, and Khedira, the strongest ball-winner, left out. That was quite a shock.

Did this mean Guardiola wanted to rely on those three midfielders to beat Real Madrid?

Was that not too arrogant?

As they spoke, on the pitch Bayern, just as Gao Shen expected, took the chance to seize possession early.

Real Madrid followed Gao Shen's instructions, not lingering on the ball and getting into their shape quickly.

But Real Madrid were not passive.

Barely a minute in, Ramos stepped in front of Mandzukic and then launched a long pass into the front third.

The landing point was predictable, right between Bayern's double pivot and center-backs. Vidal did not step up, Lahm misjudged the bounce, and Benzema reached it first.

He cushioned it with his foot and quickly slipped it to the unmarked Di Maria on the right.

Di Maria drove forward and cut inside, but when he slid the ball into the box toward Ronaldo, Dante cleared first.

Real Madrid were not about to be overrun.

With the ball in Bayern's area, Real Madrid pressed high, focusing on the center.

This was also Gao Shen's instruction. He wanted to test Bayern's midfield under pressure.

The ball pinged around in midfield as both sides pressed and it changed hands frequently.

When Götze received, Modric suddenly nicked it and burst forward, dribbling between Götze and Schweinsteiger.

But with Schweinsteiger's body blocking his angle, Dante stepped in first and played it out to Alaba.

Di Maria joined Modric to harry Alaba, forcing the left-back to go back to the keeper, and Modric went straight at the goalkeeper.

In an instant, Bayern's whole shape opened up.

Tom Starke quickly played down the right sideline to Rafinha.

Real Madrid's defensive block shifted, and Ronaldo pressed Rafinha from the left.

Gao Shen smiled on the touchline.

"Guardiola is still Guardiola. He will never give up the ball," Gao Shen said with a grin.

In that situation, most teams would have gone long, but Bayern's keeper still chose to pass. That is classic Guardiola.

Once he has the ball, do not expect him to give it up easily.

"Bayern's midfield is not great at ball-winning," Zidane observed.

Gao Shen nodded. "When Modric carried it forward, their midfield could not stop him."

Who is Modric?

A midfielder hardened in the Premier League, strong in duels and secure under pressure, tough as nails. He would be hard for Bayern to stop.

Even if he could not break through cleanly, players like Modric could still create chaos.

Soon, the pressure from Modric's carries stirred up another scramble in midfield. After Real Madrid won it, Benzema quickly switched left to Ronaldo.

Facing Rafinha, Ronaldo feinted and dribbled into the left side of the box, drawing Bayern's back line. Lahm also slid over to cover Rafinha, but Ronaldo suddenly cut it back to the edge of the area.

Toni Kroos, up against his former club, looked fired up. He took a touch at the D and shot first time.

The ball flew at great speed, but he could not keep it down and it sailed over.

It was the first effort of the match and drew warm applause from the Bernabéu.

At that point, not even three minutes had been played.

In a heavyweight clash, every second carries a lot of information.

Not only from what happens on the pitch, but also the signals from the touchline.

For now, the tempo was quick, but with under three minutes gone, the data was still limited.

Even so, Gao Shen could infer a lot.

For example, Guardiola's aim was to score first.

Why no Khedira?

Because he wanted to secure possession.

If Khedira played, Bayern's midfield share would drop significantly.

Schweinsteiger already makes many errors, and starting Khedira would exacerbate that.

In big matches, mistakes can be fatal.

Therefore, Guardiola prioritized passing fluency and only then considered midfield ball-winning.

In line with Bayern's plan, both full-backs pushed very high in attack.

The purpose was simple, to ensure threat from the flanks.

A moment ago, Alaba and Ribery nearly broke through Real Madrid's right, which was clearly a focus for Guardiola tonight.

Carvajal's defending has always been a question. Not bad, but not strong enough.

Marcelo's side is slightly better, but similar.

So Alaba and Rafinha would push on and join the front line.

That would leave more space behind.

This was also within Guardiola's expectations.

Next came the individual duels.

Ronaldo versus Rafinha, Di Maria versus Alaba, plus Benzema drifting. Which side has the edge?

The answer is obvious, Ronaldo's flank.

There are pros and cons to everything.

Whether at Real Madrid, Barcelona, or now Bayern, if you push full-backs high and hold the line near or beyond halfway, you must protect the space behind.

At Real Madrid and Barcelona, the dropping of the holding midfielder and the center-back's covering wide are crucial to this defense.

Hence both teams preferred mobile defenders like Ramos, Pepe, Puyol, and Piqué, because sometimes they must defend the channel like full-backs.

Bayern's issue was more complex, and the double pivot were not doing well enough at covering.

Seeing this, Gao Shen immediately moved to the touchline and signaled his team to increase attacks down the left, Bayern's right, targeting Rafinha.

At the same time, he adjusted the midfield, signaling Xabi Alonso, Toni Kroos, and Modric to take turns stepping up to press Bayern's midfield.

Real Madrid's three midfielders are all tough operators. Toni Kroos and Modric are composed under pressure and pass securely. Although Xabi Alonso is more press-sensitive, he is sharp, forged in the intense Premier League, and very resilient.

Taking turns to step in would surely create more problems for Bayern in the middle.

Moreover, the midfielders pushing up would draw Bayern's attention and share the pressure off the flanks.

…

With Gao Shen's tweaks, Real Madrid began to change the rhythm.

Bayern gradually monopolized the ball, but soon found themselves in the same trap as Barcelona.

With possession, they did not know how to construct the attack.

In other words, once Real Madrid dropped off, Bayern had no clear entry point.

Guardiola was frustrated to find Gao Shen had ceded possession and used the same approach he used against Barcelona, even at home. It felt shameless.

After all, he is the defending Champions League winner, a world-class coach, and a symbol of attacking football. How could he be so conservative?

But at that moment, Guardiola could not help recalling a line from Gao Shen.

"I do not carry an idol's burden. I never act a part. I like attacking football, but I never dislike defending and countering, especially when that is more likely to lead to victory."

"I like to win."

(To be continued.)